非线性地球化学动力学

非线性地球化学动力学的研究主要包括五个方面：①地球化学非线性反应动力学;②矿物沉淀、结晶与生长的非线性动力学;③流体流动－反应耦合的非线性动力学;④力学－化学耦合的非线性动力学;⑤地球化学循环的非线性动力学或非线性全球动力学。分别总结了上述五个方面的研究进展,讨论了地球化学非线性动力学研究中存在的问题和今后的发展方向。     

The discrete Hurst range for skew independent two-valued inflows

A new theoretical interpretation is proposed for Hurst's empirical law which is applicable to discrete-valued inflows and is consistent with the existing interpretation for continuous-valued inflows. This is applied to independent net inflows {X _r} having values +1 and –1 with unequal probabilities. With the aid of a new result on the exchangeability of symmetrically conditioned exchangeable variables, values of the resulting range are obtained and tabulated. It is found that the effect of skewness is very slight for skewness values between (about) 3 and –3, and that Hurst's own approximation, the conditioned range, is remarkably accurate.     

INTERBALL-Auroral observations of 0.1–12 keV ion gaps in the diffuse auroral zone

We examine ion flux dropouts detected by INTERBALL-Auroral upon traversal of the auroral zone at altitudes of ≈13 000 up to 20 000 km. These dropouts which we refer to as “gaps”, are frequently observed irrespectively of longitudinal sector and appear characteristic of INTERBALL-Auroral ion spectrograms. Whereas some of these gaps display a nearly monoenergetic character (≈12 keV), others occur at energies of a few hundreds of eV up to several keV. INTERBALL-Auroral data exhibit the former monoenergetic gap variety essentially in the evening sector. As examined in previous studies, these gaps appear related to transition from particle orbits that are connected with the magnetotail plasma source to closed orbits encircling the Earth. The latter gap variety, which spreads over several hundreds of eV to a few keV is often observed in the dayside magnetosphere. It is argued that such gaps are due to magnetospheric residence times well above the ion lifetime. This interpretation is supported by numerical orbit calculations which reveal extremely large (up to several tens of hours) times of flight in a limited energy range as a result of conflicting E × B and gradient-curvature drifts. The characteristic energies obtained numerically depend upon both longitude and latitude and are quite consistent with those measured in-situ.     

青藏高原活动地块地震频次的Hurst指数分析

应用地震活动频次的Hurst指数研究青藏高原各活动地块的地震预报问题。结果表明,对1970年以来各地块的地震作回溯性预报检验,得到的R值均能通过97.5%置信水平的检验,因而地震活动频次的Hurst指数的研究在青藏高原各地块的地震预报中有一定的预报效能。     

Two-Dimensional Spectroscopy of Photospheric Shear Flows in a Small <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis> Spot

In recent high-resolution observations of complex active regions, long-lasting and well-defined regions of strong flows were identified in major flares and associated with bright kernels of visible, near-infrared, and X-ray radiation. These flows, which occurred in the proximity of the magnetic neutral line, significantly contributed to the generation of magnetic shear. Signatures of these shear flows are strongly curved penumbral filaments, which are almost tangential to sunspot umbrae rather than exhibiting the typical radial filamentary structure. Solar active region NOAA 10756 was a moderately complex β δ sunspot group, which provided an opportunity to extend previous studies of such shear flows to quieter settings. We conclude that shear flows are a common phenomenon in complex active regions and δ spots. However, they are not necessarily a prerequisite condition for flaring. Indeed, in the present observations, the photospheric shear flows along the magnetic neutral line are not related to any change of the local magnetic shear. We present high-resolution observations of NOAA 10756 obtained with the 65-cm vacuum reflector at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). Time series of speckle-reconstructed white-light images and two-dimensional spectroscopic data were combined to study the temporal evolution of the three-dimensional vector flow field in the β δ sunspot group. An hour-long data set of consistent high quality was obtained, which had a cadence of better than 30 seconds and subarcsecond spatial resolution.     

Polar ionospheric responses to solar wind IMF changes

Auroral and airglow emissions over Eureka (89° CGM) during the 1997/98 winter show striking variations in relation to solar wind IMF changes. The period January 19 to 22, 1998, was chosen for detailed study, as the IMF was particularly strong and variable. During most of the period, B_z was northward and polar arcs were observed. Several overpasses by DMSP satellites during the four day period provided a clear picture of the particle precipitation producing the polar arcs. The spectral character of these events indicated excitation by electrons of average energy 300 to 500 eV. Only occasionally were electrons of average energy up to 1 keV observed and these appeared transitory from the ground optical data. It is noted that polar arcs appear after sudden changes in IMF B_y, suggesting IMF control over arc initiation. When B_y is positive there is arc motion from dawn to dusk, while B_y is negative the motion is consistently dusk to dawn. F-region (anti-sunward) convections were monitored through the period from 630.0 nm emissions. The convection speed was low (100/150 m/s) when B_z was northward but increased to 500 m/s after B_z turned southward on January 20.     

R/S分析法在南水北调西线一期工程调水河流径流趋势预测中的应用

南水北调西线一期工程主要是从雅砻江支流鲜水河的达曲、泥曲和大渡河的支流色曲、杜柯河、玛柯河、阿柯河等6条河流上引水40×10⁸m³·a^-1,约占河道年径流的60%~70%,剩余大约30%~40%的径流主要用于河道的生态环境需水.由此可见,这些河流的径流多少直接关系着调水工程的实施.利用域重标度分析法(R/S分析)对这6条支流附近的水文站的径流趋势进行了初步分析,结果表明:大渡河支流的绰斯甲、足木足、泥曲的朱巴、雅砻江的甘孜等水文站月径流序列的赫斯特系数分别为0.4090、0.3884、0.4487、0.4271,都<0.5,即这些径流序列具有反持续性,甘孜和足木足站的径流量将会增加;朱巴、绰斯甲两站的径流将会减少,这对西线调水工程的实施是不利的.     

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect.Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S(T) ∼ T^β with 〈β〉 = 0.51, up to a timescale, T_MaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that S_q(T) ∼ T^β(q), with β(q) ? 0 for q ? 0, and β(q) ? 0.5 for q ? 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.     

Hillslope response to knickpoint migration in the Southern Appalachians: implications for the evolution of post‐orogenic landscapes

The southern Appalachians represent a landscape characterized by locally high topographic relief, steep slopes, and frequent mass movement in the absence of significant tectonic forcing for at least the last 200 Ma. The fundamental processes responsible for landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape remain enigmatic. The non‐glaciated Cullasaja River basin of south‐western North Carolina, with uniform lithology, frequent debris flows, and the availability of high‐resolution airborne lidar DEMs, is an ideal natural setting to study landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape through the lens of hillslope–channel coupling. This investigation is limited to channels with upslope contributing areas >2.7 km², a conservative estimate of the transition from fluvial to debris‐flow dominated channel processes. Values of normalized hypsometry, hypsometric integral, and mean slope vs elevation are used for 14 tributary basins and the Cullasaja basin as a whole to characterize landscape evolution following upstream knickpoint migration. Results highlight the existence of a transient spatial relationship between knickpoints present along the fluvial network of the Cullasaja basin and adjacent hillslopes. Metrics of topography (relief, slope gradient) and hillslope activity (landslide frequency) exhibit significant downstream increases below the current position of major knickpoints. The transient effect of knickpoint‐driven channel incision on basin hillslopes is captured by measuring the relief, mean slope steepness, and mass movement frequency of tributary basins and comparing these results with the distance from major knickpoints along the Cullasaja River. A conceptual model of area–elevation and slope distributions is presented that may be representative of post‐orogenic landscape evolution in analogous geologic settings. Importantly, the model explains how knickpoint migration and channel–hillslope coupling is an important factor in tectonically‐inactive (i.e. post‐orogenic) orogens for the maintenance of significant relief, steep slopes, and weathering‐limited hillslopes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2000—2018 年锡林郭勒地区干旱时空变化及其气候响应

温度植被干旱指数（Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index,TVDI）是一种反映干旱状况的重 要方法。以内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒为研究区,基于温度植被干旱指数,采用趋势分析、R/S 分析方 法,探究了锡林郭勒地区 2000—2018 年温度植被干旱指数 TVDI 时空变化特征及其降水、气温气候 因子对 TVDI 变化的影响关系。研究表明：（1）19 a 间,TVDI 的偏差值呈现先减少后增大的趋势, 19 a 平均 TVDI 值为 0.55,TVDI 值范围为 0.51 ~ 0.61,说明锡林郭勒地区整体处于轻旱状态。（2）19 a 间,锡林郭勒地区 TVDI 呈明显增加的面积占 9.48%、轻度增加的面积占 18.52%,增加的趋势主要 分布在东乌珠穆沁旗东北部地区;TVDI 呈明显减少的面积占 28.65%、轻度减少的面积占 9.03%,减 少趋势的主要体现苏尼特右旗、苏尼特左旗、阿巴嘎旗和镶黄旗地区。19 a 来锡林郭勒地区变化趋 势为：东部强于西部。Hurst 指数的平均值为 0.44,大于 0.44 的地区占总面积的 47.7%,整体干旱持 续性略弱于反持续性。（3）TVDI 与年平均气温相关关系较弱,而与月平均气温又较强的相关性。