地磁日变与地震活动关系的主成分分析——以日本岩手县北部6.1级地震为例

本文提出了将主成分分析方法和地磁日变分析方法相结合以从较强干扰背景中提取相对较弱地震地磁信息的一种新思路.具体以1998年日本岩手县北部6.1级地震为例,选用三个地磁观测台资料进行研究.利用调和分析方法得到了各台基于多次谐波拟合的地磁日变曲线,在此基础上对各台的地磁日变形态进行了研究,发现距震中最近地磁台的日变形态在地震前大约两周出现了明显的异常,而其他两个距离震中相对较远的观测台日变形态基本正常.最后,将主成分分析方法应用于上述拟合地磁日变结果,得到了各主成分及其所占能量比的时间变化,结果表明在地震前两周左右第二主成分所占能量比显著增加,而且距离震中最近的台站的上述变化明显高于另两个较远的台站.上述结果表明地震前两周左右检测到的地磁日变异常可能与震中附近地下电阻率的变化或孕震过程中产生的电磁信号存在一定关系,相关研究结果有助于加深对地震电磁现象的认识和理解.     

新疆OLR基本特征及强震前的异常现象

利用美国国家环境监测中心的NOAA卫星长波辐射(OLR)月际资料进行数据的月距平、涡度场计算等处理,总结分析了新疆地区长波辐射场的基本特征.对2003年以来新疆及其周边地区发生的中强震进行研究,发现在部分地震前震中及附近地区出现较明显的高值辐射异常,认为这种现象可能与强震前的地一气系统变化有关.应用OLR资料进行新疆地区的地震趋势预测研究可在一定程度上弥补前兆台网监测能力的不足.     

Investigating dynamic mechanisms of geological phenomena using methodology of computational geosciences: An example of equal-distant mineralization in a fault

This paper presents a research methodology associated with approximately a decade old computa- tional geosciences. To demonstrate how it can be used to investigate the dynamic mechanisms of geological phenomenon, we use as an example the equal-distant distribution of gold deposits in a three-dimensional permeable fault within the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. The related numerical results demonstrate that: (1) convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media is the control- ling dynamic mechanism leading to the equal-distant distribution of gold deposits along the fault; (2) the main characteristic of the new methodology is to change the traditionally used empirical, descrip- tive and qualitative methodology into the fundamentally scientific principles based predictive and quantitative methodology. Thus, this new methodology provides a modern scientific research tool for investigating the dynamic mechanisms associated with observed geological phenomena in nature.     

The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.     

泥石流阵流序列的整体性

泥石流往往以阵流群的形式出现,不同阵流参数具有统一的统计分布,意味着阵流序列隐含着深层的系统信息。文中根据蒋家沟泥石流观测数据,揭示阵流序列的自相关性和时空变化特征,进而确立其整体性。Hurst指数是刻画序列相关性的指标。阵流的流量、速度和时间间歇序列的Hurst指数值均大于05,从而证明序列具有长程相关性;另一方面,将阵流作为其运动参数(如流速、流量、间歇时间)组所确定的点,则一个泥石流事件为参数空间的一个点集,且集中在一个狭小区域,直观表现了阵流在时空的聚集特征,这是序列整体性的又一特征。阵流序列的这些基本特征,意味着不同泥石流事件背后隐藏着同一个动力学机制,即泥石流作为流域行为(而不是流体运动)的系统动力学。     

基于MOD13Q1数据的宁夏生长季植被动态监测

宁夏自2000年后实施退耕还林以来,局部地区的生态环境得到明显改善,为探求近15来年宁夏地区植被的动态变化及其影响因子,本文以MOD13Q1为数据源,结合DEM数据、土地利用分类图,采用Sen+Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法和Hurst模型,分析了宁夏不同行政区、不同海拔、不同坡度、不同坡向及不同植被类型生长季NDVI的空间变化特征及未来变化趋势;并利用重心迁移模型和转移矩阵分析宁夏2000-2014年间植被覆盖的时空演变特征。结果表明：①从空间分布看,宁夏南部六盘山、北部贺兰山及引黄灌溉区植被长势较好,中部干旱地区植被长势较差;且植被NDVI与海拔高程和坡度呈显著正相关。②从植被覆盖的转移矩阵看,较高植被覆盖的面积占比从2000年的17.29%增长到2014年的31.55%,主要是由较低植被覆盖转化而来的。③从重心迁移方向看,中度植被覆盖和较高植被覆盖的重心迁移最为明显,分别向东北方向偏移了129.49 km和向东南方向偏移了89.49 km。④从变化趋势看,生长季植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势,明显改善的面积占总面积的59.63%,轻微改善区域占31.72%;林地和水田显著改善的面积分别占总面积的71.50%和70.80%;显著改善的面积比例随海拔高程和坡度的增加均先增加后减少,且南部各行政区植被改善的面积均高于北部。⑤从可持续性看,植被恢复的持续性较强,89.24%的植被NDVI呈现持续改善的趋势;南部地区的持续改善的面积大于北部地区。     

Active and laboratory experiments in space plasma physics

This report focuses on active experiments in space as well as laboratory experiments which are directly related to space phenomena. The active experiments involve particle releases in the CRESS and AMPTE missions. Unexpected results such as the motion of the plasma triggered several interesting computer simulations and a laboratory experiment which will be reviewed. Critical Ionization Phenomena will be discussed in this context. A recent release over Arecibo was used to create a plasma lens to focus radiation from the HF heater beam. The higher power triggered several nonlinear processes. Advances in plasma sources and diagnostics have made it possible to scale many laboratory experiments. Discussed here are experiments on Alfvén waves generated by a localized source, 3D magnetic field line reconnection, three dimensional magnetized double layers and simulations of a tethered satellite.     

东川6.5级地震前的外部环境异常

1966年2月5日东川6.5级地震前3年震区周围降水量的大幅度涨落,震前1月内气温、地温的明显增高,震前1—2天霾和动物异常的出现。以及地震发生在近“望”时刻等环境变化,说明东川6.5级地震前既有地下热能输出,又受到地表动荷载和天体引潮力的激励,即东川6.5级地震是在地壳内外作用叠加下发生的。     

Mining spatiotemporal association patterns from complex geographic phenomena

ABSTRACT

Spatiotemporal association pattern mining can discover interesting interdependent relationships among various types of geospatial data. However, existing mining methods for spatiotemporal association patterns usually model geographic phenomena as simple spatiotemporal point events. Therefore, they cannot be applied to complex geographic phenomena, which continuously change their properties, shapes or locations, such as storms and air pollution. The most salient feature of such complex geographic phenomena is the geographic dynamic. To fully reveal dynamic characteristics of complex geographic phenomena and discover their associated factors, this research proposes a novel complex event-based spatiotemporal association pattern mining framework. First, a complex geographic event was hierarchically modeled and represented by a new data structure named directed spatiotemporal routes. Then, sequence mining technique was applied to discover the spatiotemporal spread pattern of the complex geographic events. An adaptive spatiotemporal episode pattern mining algorithm was proposed to discover the candidate driving factors for the occurrence of complex geographic events. Finally, the proposed approach was evaluated by analyzing the air pollution in the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The experimental results showed that the proposed approach can well address the geographic dynamic of complex geographic phenomena, such as the spatial spreading pattern and spatiotemporal interaction with candidate driving factors.