1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

岩石圈地震前兆异常机制

对于电磁卫星所观测到的地震震前电磁异常现象的机制,即电磁异常如何从岩石圈穿过大气层耦合到电离层及其以上空间,目前仍是尚未解决的问题.本文主要介绍目前大量有关地震岩石圈异常的机制研究,力图从卫星地震电磁异常的源头—岩石圈地震来获得相关认识.岩石圈地震前兆异常包括：地表变形、水位变化、悬浮薄雾、超低频（ULF）电磁异常、山脊或山顶发光闪电、卫星红外图片大范围数度温度异常、磁场高于地磁偶极场的0.5%、电离层等离子体密度变化、动物奇异行为等.人们提出了许多试图解释各种异常现象的假说,如热耦合假说、气泡运移假说、边界位错充电假说、离子空穴运移假说等.本文希望通过对以上各种假说提出的基础、物理机理以及异常现象解释的探讨,促进对岩石圈地震前兆异常现象机理认识,从而为地震电磁异常的正确认识提供更有力的帮助.     

内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原古冰缘遗迹科学考察研究进展

冰缘遗迹(特别是冷生楔形构造及融冻褶皱)是重建古气候及第四纪晚期多年冻土环境的重要证据.内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原是我国北方地区冰缘现象最为发育的地区之一.为准确了解鄂尔多斯高原冰缘遗迹类型及其分布特征、区域冻土演化历史等,中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院和荷兰自由大学共同组成科研小组,于2018年5—6月组织了"鄂尔多斯高原...     

Fractal analysis of long-range paleoclimatic data: Oxygen isotope record of pacific core V28-239

R/S analysis of the oxygen isotope curve of Pacific core V28-239 yields a fractal dimension of 1.22. This value is considered to characterize global climatic change over the last 2 million years as expressed by changing O¹⁸ ratios and confirms that climatic variations are characterized by long-term persistence. The fractal dimension of 1.22 compares favorably with the approximate fractal dimension of 1.26 for annual precipitation records for nine major cities in the United States. Although the precipitation and oxygen isotope data are measured in different physical units and recorded at different time scales, fractal analysis allows for a mathematical comparison of the two phenomena. Additionally, since the fractal dimensions of the oxygen isotope and precipitation records are similar, it is implied that such fractal dimensions are characteristic of climate change over the spectral range of 10 to 10⁶ years. Given this temperature curves based on fractal parameters of long-term O¹⁸ data could be constructed which would allow examination of characteristics of temperature variation over tens and hundreds of years. Such studies may allow the establishment of limits on natural temperature variation and document the persistence of temperature trends through time. If these trends and limits can be resolved, long-range climatic prediction is feasible.     

Laboratory and field investigations of rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and acoustic emission/microseismic techniques

The progress made on three phases of a research project, started in 1986 to investigate mining induced seismicity/rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and microseismic monitoring techniques, is described. Phase I is the geotomographic software development and laboratory calibration trials. Phase II is the enhancement of traditional microseismic monitoring instrumentation with a waveform acquisition system, so that source mechanism studies can be carried out on mining induced seismic events. Phase III is the field trials of the hybrid technique which will be used to monitor changing rock mass physical properties, in response to mining. Preliminary results from all three phases are given, together with an outline of current and future research planned.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal 1987.     

Niveo-aeolian deposits and denivation forms,with special reference to the great Kobuk Sand Dunes,Northwestern Alaska

The geomorphology, lithology and chronostratigraphy of extensive, late Pleistocene inland and river dune sands, aeolian sand sheets (‘cover sands’) and loess deposits of periglacial origin in northwestern Europe are well known. However, the idea that some of these aeolian sediments result from niveo-aeolian processes is still an open question, as no diagnostic sedimentary features have yet been reported. Moreover, actual niveo-aeolian sediments and related denivation forms, reported from various cold-climate regions, are not suitable analogues. Recent observations in active dune fields in northwestern Alaska indicate that interstratification of wind-driven snow and sand preferentially occurs on slip faces of transverse, barchanoid or parabolic dune ridges. Annual denivation forms develop: e.g. snow ramparts, sinkholes, snow hummocks, snow meltwater fans and tensional cracks. The surface consists of a cracked wet sand layer with a dimpled surface and spongy structure. Although the preservation potential of these features is low in this specific case, similar features may be observed in ancient sediments elsewhere and provide useful palaeoclimatic indicators. The niveo-aeolian concept should therefore not specifically be related to late Pleistocene cover sand deposition in northwestern Europe, as previously assumed.     

Exploratory spectral analysis of hydrological times series

Current methods of estimation of the univariate spectral density are reviewed and some improvements are made. It is suggested that spectral analysis may perhaps be best thought of as another exploratory data analysis (EDA) tool which complements, rather than competes with, the popular ARMA model building approach. A new diagnostic check for ARMA model adequacy based on the nonparametric spectral density is introduced. Additionally, two new algorithms for fast computation of the autoregressive spectral density function are presented. For improving interpretation of results, a new style of plotting the spectral density function is suggested. Exploratory spectral analyses of a number of hydrological time series are performed and some interesting periodicities are suggested for further investigation. The application of spectral analysis to determine the possible existence of long memory in natural time series is discussed with respect to long riverflow, treering and mud varve series. Moreover, a comparison of the estimated spectral densities suggests the ARMA models fitted previously to these datasets adequately describe the low frequency component. Finally, the software and data used in this paper are available by anonymous ftp from fisher.stats.uwo.ca.     

Comparison between Pollutant Concentration in the Samples of Fog and Rime Water Collected at Mt. Milešovka

The article aims at showing the differences in concentration of pollutants that are contained in the samples of fog and/or low cloud water in comparison with the water from rime. The results follow from the fog and rime measurements made at Mt. Mileovka (eské Stedohoí Mountains). They are compared with the results of other studies that also report the differences in fog and rime chemistry.     

中国大陆部分大震前Hurst指数异常变化特征

对中国大陆1970年以来12组7级以上地震进行了前后10年左右地震时间间隔序列的R／S分析，滑动计算其Hurst指数H值。H值的时间进程显示，9组大震前2年左右H值在较为稳定的背景上开始出现异常变化，其异常特征为“下降－低值－回升”，地震大多发生在H值回升的过程中，具有中、短期前兆意义。H值的异常过程揭示了在大震孕震系统内地震活动从无序向有序的时间演化过程。     

A discussion on the application of b-value to the prediction of seismic tendency

It has been recognized for a long time that the b-value in the Gutenberg-Richters fre-quency-magnitude relation (Gutenberg, Richter, 1954) tends to decrease before some of the earth-quakes (LI, et al, 1979, and the references therein). Since the 1980s, study on b-value has caused much attention among seismologists and physicists when b-value was related to the fractal dimen-sion of an earthquake fault (Aki, 1981; King, 1983) and/or the scaling constant in the model of self-organized critical…