Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run.     

Geologic impact of Hurricane Andrew on Everglades coast of southwest Florida

Hurricane Andrew, one of the strongest storms of the century, crossed the southern part of the Florida peninsula on 24 August 1992. Its path crossed the Florida Everglades and exited in the national park across a mangrove-dominated coast onto the shallow, low-energy, inner shelf. The storm caused extensive breakage and defoliation in the mangrove community; full recovery will take decades. It produced no extensive sedimentation unit; only local and ephemeral ebb-surge deposits. The discontinuous shelly storm beach ridge was breached at multiple locations, and it moved landward a few meters. After seven months, there was little geologic indication that the storm had passed. It is likely that the stratigraphic record in this area will not contain any recognizable features of the passage of Hurricane Andrew.     

The impact of Hurricane Katrina on urban growth in Louisiana: an analysis using data mining and simulation approaches

ABSTRACT

Understanding human dynamics after a major disaster is important to the region’s sustainable development. This study utilized land cover data to examine how Hurricane Katrina has affected the urban growth pattern in the Mississippi Delta in Louisiana. The study analyzed land cover changes from non-urban to urban in three metropolitan areas, Baton Rouge, New Orleans-Metairie, and Hammond, for two time periods, pre-Katrina (2001–2006) and post-Katrina (2006–2010). The study first applied a focal filter to extract continuous urban areas from the scattered urban pixels in the original remote sensing images. Statistical analyses were applied to develop initial functions between urban growth probability and several driving factors. A genetic algorithm was then used to calibrate the transition function, and cellular automata simulation based on the transition function was conducted to evaluate future urban growth patterns with and without the impact of Hurricane Katrina. The results show that elevation has become a much more important factor after Hurricane Katrina, and urban growth has shifted to higher elevation regions. The elevation most probable for new urban growth increased from 10.84 to 11.90 meters. Moreover, simulated future urban growth in this region indicates a decentralized trend, with more growth occurring in more distant regions with higher elevation. In the New Orleans metropolitan area, urban growth will continue to spill across Lake Pontchartrain to the satellite towns that are more than 50 minutes away by driving from the city center.     

Erosional equivalences of levees: Steady and intermittent wave overtopping

Present criteria for acceptable grass covered levee overtopping are based on average overtopping values but do not include the effect of overtopping duration. This paper applies experimental steady state results for acceptable overtopping to the case of intermittent wave overtopping. Laboratory results consisting of velocities and durations for acceptable land side levee erosion due to steady flows are examined to determine the physical basis for the erosion. Three bases are examined: (1) velocity above a threshold value, (2) shear stress above a threshold value, and (3) work above a threshold value. The work basis provides the best agreement with the data and a threshold work value and a work index representing the summation of the product of work above the threshold and time are developed. The governing equations for flow down the land side of a levee establish that the flows near the land side levee toe will be supercritical. Wave runup is considered to be Rayleigh distributed with the runup above the levee crest serving as a surrogate for overtopping. Two examples illustrating application of the methodology are presented. Example 1 considers three qualities of grass cover: good, average, and poor. The required levee elevations for these three covers differ by 1.8 m. The results for Example 1 are compared with the empirical criteria of 0.1 liters per second per meter (l/s per m), 1.0  l/s per m, and 10.0  l/s per m. It is found that the required crest elevation by the methodology recommended herein for the “poor” cover is only slightly lower than for the criterion for average overtopping of q=10.0  l/s per m but significantly lower than for the overtopping criterion of 1.0 and 0.1 m/s per m. Example 2 considers two durations of the peak surge with the result that the longer duration peak surge requires a levee that is higher by approximately 0.8 m.     

An application of Boussinesq modeling to Hurricane wave overtopping and inundation

Wave and combined wave-and-surge overtopping was significant across a large portion of the hurricane protection system of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. In particular, along the east-facing levees of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO), the overtopping caused numerous levee breaches. This paper will focus on the MRGO levees, and will attempt to recreate the hydrodynamic conditions during Katrina to provide an estimate of the experienced overtopping rates. Due to the irregular beach profiles leading up to the levees and the general hydrodynamic complexity of the overtopping in this area, a Boussinesq wave model is employed. This model is shown to be accurate for the prediction of waves shoaling and breaking over irregular beach profiles, as well as for the overtopping of levees. With surge levels provided by ADCIRC and nearshore wave heights by STWAVE, the Boussinesq model is used to predict conditions at the MRGO levees for 10 h near the peak of Katrina. The peak simulated overtopping rates correlate well with expected levee damage thresholds and observations of damage in the levee system. Finally, the predicted overtopping rates are utilized to estimate a volumetric flooding rate as a function of time for the entire 20 km stretch of east-facing MRGO levees.     

Ephemeral sand waves in the hurricane surf zone

Airborne bathymetric LIDAR observations along the Florida panhandle after Hurricane Dennis (2005) show the first unequivocal observations of surf-zone sand wave trains.

These are found in depths of 5m along the trough of the hurricane bar, where hindcasts show strong longshore currents only during severe storms. The waves extend over tens of kilometers of coast after Dennis but are absent from the same area in four other datasets. Observed wavelength to water depth ratios are comparable to river dunes and tidal sand waves but height to depth ratios are smaller, with the largest wave heights around 0.1 times the water depth. The sand wave generation mechanism is hypothesized to be from wind-and-wave-induced longshore currents, which were hindcast to be large during Dennis, with destruction from water wave orbital velocities.     

Physical model study of wave and current conditions at 17th Street Canal breach due to Hurricane Katrina

A 1:50 scale physical model was constructed for the 17th Street Canal region, New Orleans, on the southern coast of Lake Pontchartrain, as part of the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET) study of Hurricane Katrina. The purpose of the 1350 m² physical model that represented about 3.4 km² of the local area was to aid in defining wave and water velocity conditions in the 17th Street Canal during the time period leading up to the breaching of the floodwall within the Canal. In the immediate period following this disaster, there were many hypothesis of failure put forth in the media. Some of these hypothesis indicated wave action may have been the underlying cause of the failure of the 17th Street Canal floodwall. Some performed numerical work with inappropriate boundary conditions, which indicated strong wave-generated currents may have caused erosion along the floodwalls. This physical model study indicated a number of wave-attenuating processes occurring as waves approached the location of the breach. Wave height reduction resulted due to: (1) refraction of wave energy over the shallower submerged land areas surrounding the harbor away from the canal; (2) reflection of energy off vertical walls in the region between the entrance to the canal near the Coast Guard Harbor and the bridge; and (3) interaction of the wave with the Hammond Highway bridge, including reflection and transmission loss. Wave heights near the lakeside of the bridge were 0.3-0.9 m in height, reduced from 1.8 to 2.7 m wave heights in the open lake. Waves on the south side of the bridge, near the breach, were further reduced to heights below 0.3 m. These results supported the conclusion that waves were not a significant factor for the 17th Street Canal floodwall failure. Other IPET investigations determined floodwall failure was of a geotechnical nature due to the high surge water level. The physical model also provided calibration information for numerical wave models. The effects of debris on flow and waves after the breach was formed were also investigated.     

Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island

A 2DH numerical, model which is capable of computing nearshore circulation and morphodynamics, including dune erosion, breaching and overwash, is used to simulate overwash caused by Hurricane Ivan (2004) on a barrier island. The model is forced using parametric wave and surge time series based on field data and large-scale numerical model results. The model predicted beach face and dune erosion reasonably well as well as the development of washover fans. Furthermore, the model demonstrated considerable quantitative skill (upwards of 66% of variance explained, maximum bias − 0.21 m) in hindcasting the post-storm shape and elevation of the subaerial barrier island when a sheet flow sediment transport limiter was applied. The prediction skill ranged between 0.66 and 0.77 in a series of sensitivity tests in which several hydraulic forcing parameters were varied. The sensitivity studies showed that the variations in the incident wave height and wave period affected the entire simulated island morphology while variations in the surge level gradient between the ocean and back barrier bay affected the amount of deposition on the back barrier and in the back barrier bay. The model sensitivity to the sheet flow sediment transport limiter, which served as a proxy for unknown factors controlling the resistance to erosion, was significantly greater than the sensitivity to the hydraulic forcing parameters. If no limiter was applied the simulated morphological response of the barrier island was an order of magnitude greater than the measured morphological response.     

新奥尔良飓风灾难与华南沿海台风暴潮

分析了新奥尔良的地理环境,概述了卡特里娜飓风与丽塔飓风及其对新奥尔良的影响.简述了华南沿海的台风暴潮灾害情况,提出了新奥尔良飓风灾难对华南沿海的几点警示:(1)加强提高防御台风暴潮灾害的认识;(2)保护好沿海抗御台风暴潮的"前沿阵地;(3)加强和完善防台风暴潮应急预案;(4)应对台风暴潮要充分考虑全球环境变化.     

“拉马德雷”冷位相时期的全球强震和灾害

“拉马德雷”是一种高空气压流，亦称太平洋十年涛动，分别以“暖位相”和“冷位相”两种形式交替在太平洋上空出现，每种现象持续20年至30年。近100多年来“拉马德雷”已出现了两个完整的周期（见表1）。当“拉马德雷”现象以“暖位相”形式出现时，北美大陆附近海面的水温就会异常升高，而北太平洋洋面温度却异常下降。与此同时太平洋高空气流由美洲和亚洲两大陆向太平洋中央移动；低空气流正好相反，使中太平洋海面升高。当“拉马德雷”以“冷位相”形式出现时，情况正好相反。中太平洋海面反复升降导致地壳跷跷板运动，引发强烈的地震活动。