Can a 25-year trend in Soudano-Sahelian vegetation dynamics be interpreted in terms of land use change? A remote sensing approach

This study is based on the premise that, in the Sahel/Sudanian belt of Africa, the main determinants of interannual variation in vegetation dynamics are rainfall and land cover type. We analyzed the spatio-temporal sensitivity of the NOAA-AVHRR 8 km-resolution vegetation index (NDVI) to (i) annual rainfall variability (0.5° × 0.5° resolution) acquired over a 25-year period (1982-2006); and (ii) land use changes in the different eco-climatic regions of the Bani catchment in Mali (130 000 km²). During the period 1982-2006, there was no clear trend in rainfall over the catchment, whereas there was a strong positive trend in the NDVI, both when the NDVI values were corrected using annual rainfall variability and when they were not. We divided the catchment into three eco-climatic regions based on the relationship between the annual NDVI and rainfall. In each region, we analyzed the observed greening in relation to changes in land use after correcting for the effect of annual rainfall on the NDVI. Results show that there is a mixed level of agreement between the land cover changes at the grid cell scale and the spatial pattern of the NDVI trend. Increased cropping does not explain the increase in the annual NDVI, except in the Sahelian part of the catchment. We hypothesize that the natural vegetation dynamics related to the non-linear rainfall patterns during the 25-year study period were responsible for these results.     

Energy use, climate change and folk psychology: Does sustainability have a chance? Results from a qualitative study in five European countries

Citizens’ support for policies that aim to curb carbon emissions and energy use is often seen as informed by their values, attitudes and perceptions of the environmental problem in question. We argue that we also need to understand how people conceptualise policies and the governance approaches underpinning them to be able to judge the likely acceptance of policy change.In this study, we draw on qualitative interviews (n = 202) from five European countries to explore citizens’ views on governance approaches to stimulate behavioural change in the field of resource use, including regulations, price changes, collective action, technological change and education.We found that many of our interviewees referred to generalised characteristics of humankind and contemporary society to back up their arguments for or against specific governance approaches. In particular, many interviewees concurred that people in general were so self-centred, driven by habit and money- and consumption-oriented that only strict regulations, drastic price changes and technological innovation could possibly achieve widespread behavioural change. As a consequence, such ‘folk psychologies’ can have substantial impact not only on public acceptance, but also on the success of policy measures that aim to reduce citizens’ resource use.     

Temporal variation of suspended sediment load in the Pearl River due to human activities

Data on sediment flux at three hydrologic stations from the 1950s to 2006 are utilized to study the decadal,annual,and monthly variations in suspended sediment load delivered from the Pearl River to the ocean.Results show that variations in sediment flux from three main tributaries,including the West River,the North River and the East River,are spatially non-uniform.Since nearly 90%of the suspended sediment load comes from the West River,its variation has dominated the overall tendency of sediment flux in the entire Pearl River.Although a significant decreasing trend exists in the annual variation of the total sediment flux,the decadal change can be divided into an increasing phase and a decreasing phase,with the turning point between the two phases in the late 1980s.From the 1950s to the 1980s,the average annual river sediment flux increased by 30.43%.However,sediment flux has decreased significantly since the 1990s,with the average sediment flux being 38.60%less in the 2000s than that in the 1950s.The current sediment flux is also 52.93%less than its peak in the 1980s. The monthly variation pattern of the suspended sediment load transport to the sea is more interesting. For the West River,all months show a decreasing trend,and for most months the reduction values are significant.However,for the East River the sediment load shows a decrease trend in the dry season and an increase trend in the wet season.The method of regression analysis was used to study the influence of precipitation in the variation on the sediment flux.It was found that the climate change is not the main driving force behind the variation in suspended sediment load.Before the 1990s, intensive land use destroyed the vulnerable ecosystem of the upper Pearl River,and speeded up the process of rocky desertification.Consequently,aggravated soil erosion caused an increase in suspended sediment load.However,sediment retention within reservoirs had begun to play a dominant role after the massive construction of large dams after 1990,and resulted in a decrease in the suspended sediment load delivered to the ocean.     

Forest–savanna–morichal dynamics in relation to fire and human occupation in the southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) during the last millennia

The southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) holds a particular type of neotropical savanna characterized by the local occurrence of morichales (Mauritia palm swamps), in a climate apparently more suitable for rain forests. We present a paleoecological analysis of the last millennia of Lake Chonita (4°39′N–61°0′W, 884 m elevation), based on biological and physico-chemical proxies. Savannas dominated the region during the last millennia, but a significant vegetation replacement occurred in recent times. The site was covered by a treeless savanna with nearby rainforests from 3640 to 2180 cal yr BP. Water levels were higher than today until about 2800 cal yr BP. Forests retreated since about 2180 cal yr BP onwards, likely influenced by a higher fire incidence that facilitated a dramatic expansion of morichales. The simultaneous appearance of charcoal particles and Mauritia pollen around 2000 cal yr BP supports the potential pyrophilous nature of this palm and the importance of fire for its recent expansion. The whole picture suggests human settlements similar to today – in which fire is an essential element – since around 2000 yr ago. Therefore, present-day southern Gran Sabana landscapes seem to have been the result of the synergy between biogeographical, climatic and anthropogenic factors, mostly fire.     

Marine management for human development: A review of two decades of scholarly evidence

This paper reviews the evidence of the impacts of marine management interventions on human development and well-being reported in marine management literature in the past two decades. Documents dealing with fisheries, aquaculture, marine conservation and coastal zone management are assessed in terms of the methodologies used, the human development dimensions considered, and the results reported. The choice of dimensions for defining human development in this literature is contrasted with proposals from the literature on the capability and human development approaches. Possible areas for future research are discussed.     

Robust design in geotechnical engineering – an update

This paper presents an update for the robust geotechnical design (RGD) methodology, which seeks an optimal design with respect to design robustness and cost efficiency, while satisfying the safety requirements. In general, the design robustness is achieved if the system response is insensitive to the variation in the uncertain input parameters (called “noise factors”). In other words, a design is considered robust if the system response exhibits little variation, even though there is high variation in the input parameters. Robust design achieves this desirable outcome by carefully adjusting ‘design parameters’ (i.e., the parameters that can be controlled by the designer, such as the geometry and dimensions) without reducing the uncertainty in the noise factors. In this paper, the existing RGD methodology is updated with a gradient-based robustness measure and a simplified procedure for seeking the knee point. The RGD methodology and its simplified version (with new updates) are illustrated with three design examples. The results presented in this paper show that the RGD methodology and its simplified version are effective design tools that considers safety, cost and design robustness simultaneously. The advantages of the simplified RGD approach are discussed.     

工程开挖活动诱发堆积层滑坡变形机理及加固效果分析

位于川西高原雅砻江两河口水电站库区的杜米村移民安置点由于切坡建房,诱发后山斜坡强烈变形,威胁移民安置点和S220省道安全。首先,基于现场调查、测绘、钻探、槽探等勘查手段,查明了滑坡发育的工程地质条件和变形特征;通过对滑体和滑带土开展室内直剪、反复剪试验,以及对滑床基岩进行抗压强度试验,结合反分析,合理确定了滑坡稳定性计算参数。然后,采用有限元程序Phase2建立滑坡数值计算模型,模拟再现了滑坡在开挖前、开挖后、降雨后的应力、变形特征和稳定性变化过程,在此基础上分析了滑坡的变形机理。研究认为：不良的地形地貌、地质结构和地下水是滑坡发生的内在因素,坡脚开挖是滑坡变形启动的诱发因素,后期持续降雨入渗是滑坡变形加剧直至失稳破坏的直接因素;开挖导致滑体前缘抗滑力降低、滑带和开挖边坡坡脚产生剪应力集中是滑坡变形启动的力学机制,而饱水和持续剪切变形导致滑带土强度不断衰减接近饱和残余状态是滑坡变形加剧的本质原因;滑坡的变形破坏模式为牵引式蠕滑-拉裂。最后,采用有限元强度折减法对加固治理后的滑坡稳定性进行了计算分析。结果表明：天然条件下滑坡变形主要出现在桩后填土,降雨条件下变形范围扩大至强变形区,地震条件下变形范围进一步扩大至整个滑坡范围;三种工况下滑坡的稳定系数均能达到设计要求,表明加固设计方案和工程结构参数是合理的。研究成果可为类似滑坡工程案例的机理研究及防治提供参考。     

基坑开挖与支护FLAC数值模拟计算及分析

介绍了FLAC-2D,根据基坑工程具体实例,采用FLAC-2D对基坑开挖及其支护结构状态进行计算和分析;并模拟了在未进行支护条件下的基坑开挖,得出了基坑土体在支护和未支护条件下,土体的应力状态、位移等值线图、位移矢量图、最终沉降量和结构受力.计算结果也证明了支护结构设计的合理性,对工程设计及施工分别起到了验证和预测的作用.     

大气臭氧层,紫外辐射与人类健康

本文首先评述了近数十年来大气Ｏ３层的演变,其中包括全球与中国地区及南极臭氧洞的情况,之后,评述了由此引发的达地面太阳紫外辐射强度的变化,以及对人类健康与环境的影响。     

格尔木河中上游水化学变化及其影响因素

格尔木河是柴达木盆地一条重要的河流。通过系统取样和水化学研究,探讨了格尔木河中上游水化学变化特征并揭示了其影响因素。研究表明,雪水河汇入是导致格尔木河水中Na~+、SO_4~(2-)、Cl~-、B_2O_3、Li~+、K~+等组分变化的主要因素。人类活动则导致Ca~(2+)、HCO_3~-、NO_3~(2-)、Sr~(2+)等组分在局部河段出现异常高值。格尔木河水化学变化是自然和人为因素叠加作用造成的。