长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估

基于长江流域142个气象站1986—2005年月降水和气温数据,评估由MPI-ESM-LR模式驱动的CCLM区域气候模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟能力,并采用EDCDF法对气温和降水预估数据进行偏差校正。结果表明：该区域气候模式能较好地模拟出长江流域平均气温的季节变化和空间分布特征,但模拟值无论在季节还是年际尺度上均高于观测值。对降水而言,该模式不能较好地模拟出降水的季节分布特征,导致春季、冬季及年模拟值高于观测值,而夏季和秋季模拟值低于观测值。总体而言,该模式对气温的模拟效果相对较好。偏差校正后的预估结果表明：在RCP4.5情景下,长江流域未来（2016—2035年）平均气温相对于基准期（1986—2005年）将升高0.66℃,年降水量将减少2.2%。     

洞庭湖区与城陵矶水位关联性的临界特征分析

采用典型测站观测资料与水力学原理相结合,分析不同情况下城陵矶水位与洞庭湖区水位关联性强弱转化的机理和临界条件以及三峡水库对其影响等问题。理论解析表明,固定流量下,湖区水位与城陵矶水位相关关系应为单调指数函数,受到区间距离、湖槽形态等多因素影响,据此提出和率定了各湖区水位的经验计算模式。利用经验计算模式对实测数据进行延展,构建了各种可能出现的湖区来流和干流水位组合下的湖区水位特征曲线族,发现湖区水位与城陵矶水位之间的关联强度存在无影响区、影响区和决定区等状态区间,通过对临界条件的定义和计算,实现了各状态区间的定量划分,并提出了各状态区间内洞庭湖区水位的估算方法。通过对三峡水库蓄水后湖床冲淤和水文条件变化的影响分析,论证了以上方法和认识在水库蓄水后的适用性。     

Pressure-specific and multiple pressure response of fish assemblages in European running waters

We classified homogenous river types across Europe and searched for fish metrics qualified to show responses to specific pressures (hydromorphological pressures or water quality pressures) vs. multiple pressures in these river types. We analysed fish taxa lists from 3105 sites in 16 ecoregions and 14 countries. Sites were pre-classified for 15 selected pressures to separate unimpacted from impacted sites. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to split unimpacted sites into four homogenous river types based on species composition and geographical location. Classification trees were employed to predict associated river types for impacted sites with four environmental variables. We defined a set of 129 candidate fish metrics to select the best reacting metrics for each river type. The candidate metrics represented tolerances/intolerances of species associated with six metric types: habitat, migration, water quality sensitivity, reproduction, trophic level and biodiversity. The results showed that 17 uncorrelated metrics reacted to pressures in the four river types. Metrics responded specifically to water quality pressures and hydromorphological pressures in three river types and to multiple pressures in all river types. Four metrics associated with water quality sensitivity showed a significant reaction in up to three river types, whereas 13 metrics were specific to individual river types. Our results contribute to the better understanding of fish assemblage response to human pressures at a pan-European scale. The results are especially important for European river management and restoration, as it is necessary to uncover underlying processes and effects of human pressures on aquatic communities.     

渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲50 a来农业开发及所引发的生态问题探析

从渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲50a来农业开发与生态建设的过程看，人工绿洲耕作农业的生产力水平有较显著的提高，人工绿洲生态也得到了改善。主要表现是单位面积生产力水平提高，农田防护林体系初步建立，水利工程建设得到加强，生活能源的短缺得到改进。但从流域的绿洲农业经济发展与生态环境建设仍存在一些不协调的问题。主要是农田施肥重化肥轻有机肥，土壤肥力不高；灌区中游重灌轻排，灌排不协调，盐渍化面积有所扩大；流域下游由于缺水和人为等因素使天然绿洲的稳定性受到威胁，天然林的绿色屏障作用大为削弱等。对此必须引起足够重视，逐步加以协调，才能实现绿洲农业经济的可持续发展。     

越南O Quy Ho钼矿床的成矿时代及成矿物质来源探讨

越南西北部O Quy Ho钼矿床为范士版成矿带的典型钼矿床之一,矿体以脉状形式就位于中生代花岗岩中,辉钼矿主要赋存于石英脉及长石石英脉中,与黄铁矿、黄铜矿、磁铁矿等共生。8件样品硫同位素分析结果表明,δ34S介于0.14‰～3.34‰之间,平均值为1.53‰,表明成矿物质具有深源特征。黄铁矿的206Pb/204Pb范围为18.583～22.355,207Pb/204Pb变化于15.632～15.812之间,208Pb/204Pb变化于38.989～39.199;辉钼矿的206Pb/204Pb、207Pb/204Pb、208Pb/204Pb分别为18.686～18.737、15.655～15.660和39.081～39.082,与范士版含角闪石花岗斑岩具有成因联系。辉钼矿Re-Os同位素等时线测年获得了(36±1)Ma的年龄,该年龄与金沙江-红河新生代斑岩铜钼矿成矿带岩浆-成矿活动的年龄一致,提出O Quy Ho钼矿床为金沙江-红河新生代斑岩铜钼矿带的一部分。     

Sediment records as archives of the Late Pleistocene-Holocene hydrological change in the alluvial Narmada River basin, western India

The rivers of western India are monsoon dominated and have been so throughout the late Quaternary. Sediment accumulation in these river basins has been controlled by climatic and tectonic changes over a time span from the Late Pleistocene to the recent. The lithofacies assemblages associated with the various sediment archives in the Narmada basin range from the boulders of the alluvial fans to overbank fines on the alluvial plains. Estimates, based on clast size, of stream power and competence, bed shear stress and discharge reveal that hydrological conditions during the Late Pleistocene (∼90 ka) were comparable to the present day. The size of the transported clasts and the thickness of the accumulated sediment indicate the influence of basin subsidence rather than an increase in discharge. Discharge estimates based on sedimentary structures preserved in the alluvial-plain facies suggest that the channel had a persistent flow, with a low width-depth ratio and large meander wavelength. The hydrological changes during the Holocene are more pronounced where the early Holocene is marked by a high-intensity hydrological regime that induced erosion and incision of the earlier sediments. The mid-Holocene stream channel was less sinuous and had a higher width-depth ratio and a higher meander amplitude in comparison with the present-day channel. Palaeo-fluvial reconstructions based on the sediment archives in the alluvial reach of the river basin are important tools in understanding the long-term hydrological changes and the intricate fluvial architecture preserved in the Narmada River basin ensures scope for detailed studies to identify phases of weak and enhanced hydrological regimes.     

天山乌鲁木齐河流域山区降水δ18O和δD 特征及水汽来源分析

依据乌鲁木齐河流域山区3个站点实测次降水δ18O和δD数据以及气象观测资料,结合临近GNIP(Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation)站点数据,对其降水δ18O和δD特征及水汽来源进行了分析。结果表明,大气降水中δ18O值波动范围大,但呈现明显的季节性变化:冬季降水δ18O较低,夏季降水δ18O较高。受流域山区气候和地理条件影响,从上游到下游各站点大气降水线截距和斜率均呈现逐渐减小趋势。大气降水中δ18O和δD与日均气温存在密切正相关关系,且温度与δ18O之间的相关性优于δD。降水中d-excess值也表现出季节性变化,冬季降水d-excess值高于夏季降水。利用HYSPLIT 4.0气团轨迹模型,得出夏季水汽主要来源西风环流输送,冬季受西风环流和极地气团共同影响。     

山东小清河的原生动物

本文根据对山东小清河多年的污染生态调整研究，报导了淡水原生动物１４种。     

长江-淮河流域短时暴雨洪涝灾害危险性预警评估及验证

洪涝灾害危险性预警分析是防灾减灾的重要基础,在灾害发生前进行预警,可以有效减轻灾害带来的影响。本文以2020年6—8月长江-淮河流域洪涝灾害为研究案例,首次利用前3天累计降水量(前期状态),当前时次土壤湿度(当前状态)和预测日降水量(未来状态)作为致灾因子,基于改进的层次分析法建立危险性预警分析模型。通过县域灾情信息验证表明,评估正确率达74.46%,遗漏率仅5.59%,评估结果与实际灾情吻合性好;同时对预警准确性和时相一致性进行评价,最大值(县内最高指数)的预警率达到81.6%;“特大型”暴雨洪涝灾害中的预警达到77.3%以上,且灾害在前3~5天危险性指数普遍提升,存在有效预警。本文方法对于长江—淮河流域短时暴雨洪涝灾害危险性预警有较好的准确性和可靠性,可提供防灾减灾决策依据。     

Water discharge changes of the Changjiang River downstream Datong during dry season

Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000, with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.