陕西省HFRS疫情时空分异特征及影响要素研究

肾综合征出血热（HFRS）主要是由鼠类携带传播汉坦病毒而引起的一类自然疫源性传染病,严重危害着人类健康。陕西省是我国HFRS疫情最严重的省份之一,发病率居全国前列,研究其疫情时空分异和影响要素对指导当地疫情防控具有重要意义。本研究基于2005—2017年县区尺度HFRS发病率数据,采用空间自相关、热点分析等方法分析陕西省疫情时空分异特征,并利用地理探测器探究影响疫情的主要自然环境和社会经济要素。结果表明：2005—2017年陕西省HFRS发病率明显高于全国水平,同时呈现明显的时间波动和空间聚集,平原面积占比、建设用地面积占比、人口密度等因素可以解释约20%的HFRS疫情空间分异;关中平原聚集了陕西省90%以上的高发病县区,其疫情亦呈现明显的空间分异性,主要受降水量、 NDVI、土地利用类型等因素的影响。由此可知,高发病县区聚集、且自然环境和社会经济条件明显不同的关中平原是陕西省HFRS疫情流行的关键地区。因此,建议陕西省HFRS疫情防控应当重点关注降水量、植被状况以及土地利用类型,特别是在土地城镇化水平较高、人口密度较大的关中平原进行有效的防控干预。     

Variability of Raindrop Size Distribution during a Regional Freezing Rain Event in the Jianghan Plain of Central China

The characteristics of the raindrop size distribution(DSD) during regional freezing rain(FR) events that occur throughout the phase change(from liquid to solid) are poorly understood due to limited observations. We investigate the evolution of microphysical parameters and the key formation mechanisms of regional FR using the DSDs from five disdrometer sites in January 2018 in the Jianghan Plain(JHP) of Central China. FR is identified via the size and velocity distribution measured from a disdrom...     

政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应

气候变化背景下干旱等极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户是否采取相关应对措施及政府对其采取措施的影响,是进一步完善相关政策和引导农户增强自身响应能力建设的基础和关键。以华北平原为例,基于农户问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析气候变化导致干旱频发背景下微观农户的响应行为,评估政府预警和政策支持是否影响农户响应行为以及其他因素如何影响其响应行为。结果表明：① 农户响应干旱态度积极,随干旱程度加深,农户选择采取响应措施的可能性增大。② 政府调控影响农户响应行为,但仅部分调控手段效果显著。政府提供预警信息能增加农户采取响应措施的可能性,然而只有当灾前及灾中、灾后同时预警时效果才显著;电视是目前最主要的预警媒介,但其并不显著改变农户响应行为,通过两种及以上形式的媒介传播预警信息效果最显著。此外,政府（尤其是乡镇及村级机构）的政策支持对农户旱灾响应行为有一定影响,但其效果在灾害年不如正常年明显;资金补贴的调控手段能明显促进农户采取响应措施的积极性,但绝大多数农户未获得任何机构支持。政府调控的结构及力度均有待提升及完善。③ 不同特质农户的响应行为不同。灌区内的农户,家庭耕地细碎度越小的农户,家庭农业成员越多的农户,更倾向于采取响应措施。本研究可为干旱化背景下制定相关调控政策提供科学参考。     

松嫩高平原县域土地利用空间格局地形梯度特征分析——以巴彦县为例

以黑龙江省巴彦县为研究区,基于研究区DEM数据,运用土地利用类型的分布指数、土地利用结构的信息熵、均衡度和优势度,明确研究区土地利用空间格局的地形梯度特征及地形因子对土地利用空间格局的影响。结果表明：① 研究区土地利用空间格局在地形因子的作用下存在明显的梯度特征,旱地、水田、草地、水域、建设用地及其他用地主要分布在较低地形级别区,林地主要分布在较高地形级别区。② 除林地以外,其他土地利用类型分布的优势地形位均位于较低地形级别区,林地分布的优势地形位位于较高地形级别区,各土地利用类型分布的优势区域不尽相同。③ 研究区土地利用结构的信息熵及均衡度变化趋势相同,优势度的变化趋势与信息熵、均衡度的变化趋势相反,土地利用空间格局与地形因子具有显著的相关性。     

中原经济区干线公路路网通达性研究

利用GIS空间分析工具,选取最短时间矩阵、最短路径矩阵、路网密度及通达性系数等指标,对中原经济区干线公路路网通达性进行分析。结果表明:中原经济区公路总长度和高速公路长度逐年快速增加,国道和高速公路分别呈现出"四横五纵"和"米"字型布网。郑州、开封、许昌和新乡因优越的干线公路基础条件和中心地理位置,位居公路路网总距离和总时间排名的前列;运城市、蚌埠市和晋城市则因边缘效应而排名相对靠后。郑州和洛阳的交通中心地位明显,特别是郑州的中心地位更加突出,但以二者为中心交通运输最短时间分布状况欠佳,2 h圈内的城市数量较少。研究区总路网密度较高,区域内路网总容量较大,服务能力和辐射能力较强。高密度路网主要分布在中东部,低密度则分布在北部、西部和南部。高通达性城市主要分布在山东省和河南省,低通达性城市主要分布在河北省、山西省、安徽省及河南省部分省辖市,郑州市干线公路通达性最好,蚌埠市最差。自然地理位置、经济发展水平及交通建设资金投入是影响公路路网通达性的主要因素。     

Quantitative Assessment of the Ecological Vulnerability of Baiyangdian Wetlands in the North China Plain

Quantitative assessment of vulnerability is a core aspect of wetland vulnerability research. Taking Baiyangdian (BYD) wetlands in the North China Plain as a study area and using the ‘cause-result’ model, 23 representative indicators from natural, social, sci-tech and economic elements were selected to construct an indicator system. A weight matrix was obtained by using the entropy weight method to calculate the weight value for each indicator. Based on the membership function in the fuzzy evaluation model, the membership degrees were determined to form a fuzzy relation matrix. Finally, the ecological vulnerability was quantitatively assessed based on the comprehensive evaluation index calculated by using a composite operator to combine the entropy weight matrix with the fuzzy relation matrix. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability levels of the BYD wetlands were comprehensively evaluated as Grade II, Grade Ⅲ, Grade IV, and Grade Ⅲ in 2010, 2011-2013, 2014, and 2015-2017, respectively. The ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands increased from low fragility in 2010 to general fragility in 2011-2013, and to high fragility in 2014, reflecting the fact that the wetland ecological condition was degenerating from 2010 to 2014. The ecological vulnerability status then turned back into general fragility during 2015-2017, indicating that the ecological situation of the BYD wetlands was starting to improve. However, the ecological status of the BYD wetlands on the whole is relatively less optimistic. The major factors affecting the ecological vulnerability of the BYD wetlands were found to be industrial smoke and dust emission, wetland water area, ammonia nitrogen, total phosphorus, rate of industrial solid wastes disposed, GDP per capita, etc. This illustrates that it is a systematic project to regulate wetland vulnerability and to protect regional ecological security, which may offer researchers and policy-makers specific clues for concrete interventions.     

苏州澄湖湖底硬粘土粒度特征及成因初探

澄湖是太湖平原上的一个浅水湖泊,湖底十分平坦,主要由硬粘土组成,同时发育有NW—SE横穿澄湖的古河道和泥沼洼地。在接近湖泊中心部位的古河道中打钻获得了4 m长的岩芯,并进行了详细的粒度分析。结果表明,该岩芯下部的硬粘土主要由细粉砂、中粉砂和粘土组成,分别占26.7%~38.1%,26.9%~34.3%和19.7%~26.2%,可命名为粘土质粉砂;众数粒径为10~50 μm,平均占57.9%;平均粒径为6.3~6.9。将其与上部的湖泊沉积、镇江下蜀黄土和中国北方各地黄土的粒度比较表明,苏州澄湖湖底的硬粘土原本也是风尘沉积。     

水平衡下黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力测算

为缓解黄淮海平原区地下水水位的持续下降,国家提出耕地资源休养生息的战略,而实施耕地资源休养生息的关键,是确保水平衡下的耕地资源可持续生产能力。本文从可持续理论和水平衡的条件出发,将黄淮海划分成12个自然条件、社会经济条件相对均一的农业生态区,采用不同农业生态区代表实验站限水高产的产量和管理经验,以水定产并逐步修正,得到了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力,并与现实产量对比得到产量差。结果表明：① 水平衡条件下黄淮海平原区耕地的可持续粮食生产能力为1.16亿t/年;② 可持续总产产量差为-67.85万t/年,由于限水灌溉造成的粮食产能损失为小麦331.84万t/年,玉米不存在产能损失;③ 小麦主要压产地区为黑龙港地区、鲁西平原、豫东平原以及京津唐平原,而徐淮低平原、豫东平原以及胶西黄泛平原具有一定的提产潜力。通过测算,进一步认识了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续产能状况,为区域粮食生产的合理布局以及农业限水限产提供可靠依据。     

Is Larger Scale Better? Evidence from Rice Farming in Jianghan Plain

Small-scale household agricultural production has been in conflict with China’s agricultural modernization. In the context of vigorously promoting rural land circulation and moderate scale management nationwide, research on the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency has become increasingly important. In this paper, we use the “DEA-OLS” two stage method to analyze data from 368 surveys of rice farming households in the Jianghan Plain. The scale efficiency of rice farming was calculated, and the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency investigated. The results indicate that (1) the rice farm size is generally small in Jianghan Plain, with an average of 0.77 ha. The average scale efficiency is 0.88, and it is the main factor limiting an increase in comprehensive technical efficiency. Moreover, 88.32% of households are in the stage of increasing returns to scale. (2) There is a stable inverted “U” type relationship between rice farm size and scale efficiency. Considering characteristics of the householder, the household and land quality, the maximum scale efficiency corresponds to a household with 5 ha of rice farm. (3) Among householder characteristics, age has a significant negative influence on scale efficiency, and scale efficiency is lower for a household whose householder is engaged in non-farm work than for one whose householder is devoted to farming. As for land quality, there was a significant positive effect of irrigation on scale efficiency. Among family characteristics, the application of a machine during the seeding process increased scale efficiency by 3.07%. Therefore, we suggest that local government should actively promote rural land circulation, implement a staged-scale management subsidy, and other forms of support for the purchase of agricultural machinery and technical popularization. Increased investment in irrigation improvements and mechanical facilities and encouragement of farmers to enlarge their farm size could improve scale efficiency and farming profit and lead to the development of moderate scale management.     

江汉平原沔城M1孔的沉积特征与古环境重建

通过对江汉平原沔城M₁孔湖泊沉积物进行沉积特征、粒度、14C年代、孢粉分析,重建了晚冰期以来该地区古环境、古气候演化的过程和序列:晚冰期后期有一扩张期,气候温湿并出现湖泊相沉积;晚冰期末期气候温凉偏干、河流环境;全新世初期(10-8.9kaBP),气候转向温湿;全新世大暖期(8.9-3.5kaBP),总体上气候温暖湿润,其中6.8-4.9kaBP是最宜期,4.9-4.8kaBP和4.4-4.2kaBP为两次降温事件,4.8kaBP积水湖盆开始形成,3.9-3.5kaBP为云梦泽鼎盛期;全新世晚期(3.5-1.7kaBP),气温较大暖期有所下降,其中3.5-2.5kaBP温凉偏湿,2.5-1.7kaBP较为温湿,湖泊较为稳定,1.7kaBP开始,云梦泽萎缩,钻孔所在位置出露水面。