植被结构及太阳／观测角度对NDVI的影响

在文献［１］中作者建立了计算多组分植被方向反射系数（ＢＲＦ）的综合解析模型。本文采用该模型研究植被空间结构对常用的归一化植被指数（ＮＤＶＩ）的影响，文中讨论了ＮＤＶＩ与叶（或植被其它组分）角分布（ＬＡＤ）、植被组分（如叶片）的特征尺度和它们在空间的散布方式，以及非叶器官面积在总面积中所占比例间的依赖关系，同时给出了ＮＤＶＩ随太阳／观测角度的变化情况。结果表明即使在叶面积指数（ＬＡＩ）固定不变时，冠层结构及植被组分光学性质的空间非均匀性对ＮＤＶＩ的大小及角分布也有十分显著的影响。通常ＮＤＷ随角度的变化是很大的，如果植被不同组分的光学性质差异很大，且事先不知道它们的空间散布方式时，那么利用ＤＮＶＩ就无法准确地估算出ＬＡＩ。但是对于组分随机分布的植被，利用远离“热点”区域的光谱资料可以使冠层其它结构参数的影响减至最小。     

基于图像信息方法的日本东北MW9.0地震回溯性预测研究

以日本局部地区(32.0°~46.0°N, 136.0°~148.0°E)为研究区域, 应用图像信息方法, 选用8 a滑动预测窗长, 1°×1°网格为主要计算参数, 系统计算了研究区域内2000年以来的“地震热点”(显著异常地区)并获得了区域内7级以上大震特别是2011年日本东北M_W9.0地震的热点演化图像。 结果表明: ① 包含M_W9.0地震的预测时间窗内, 其震中的邻近网格持续有热点出现, 并且其中有4个连续滑动的窗口中该地震震中所在网格亦存在热点。 ② 在回溯时间段内发生的21个M≥7.0地震中, 除2004年9月5日发生于日本近畿南岸近海的M7.1地震前无地震热点外, 绝大多数在震前皆有热点出现。 ③ 与其他M≥7.0地震相比, M_W9.0地震前热点图像分布范围更广, 稳定性更好, 持续时间更长。     

Exploiting autoregressive properties to develop prospective urban arson forecasts by target

Municipal fire departments responded to approximately 53,000 intentionally-set fires annually from 2003 to 2007, according to National Fire Protection Association figures. A disproportionate amount of these fires occur in spatio-temporal clusters, making them predictable and, perhaps, preventable. The objective of this research is to evaluate how the aggregation of data across space and target types (residential, non-residential, vehicle, outdoor and other) affects daily arson forecast accuracy for several target types of arson, and the ability to leverage information quantifying the autoregressive nature of intentional firesetting. To do this, we estimate, for the city of Detroit, Michigan, competing statistical models that differ in their ability to recognize potential temporal autoregressivity in the daily count of arson fires. Spatial units vary from Census tracts, police precincts, to citywide. We find that (1) the out-of-sample performance of prospective hotspot models for arson cannot usefully exploit the autoregressive properties of arson at fine spatial scales, even though autoregression is significant in-sample, hinting at a possible bias-variance tradeoff; (2) aggregation of arson across reported targets can yield a model that differs from by-target models; (3) spatial aggregation of data tends to increase forecast accuracy of arson due partly to the ability to account for temporally dynamic firesetting; and (4) arson forecast models that recognize temporal autoregression can be used to forecast daily arson fire activity at the Citywide scale in Detroit. These results suggest a tradeoff between the collection of high resolution spatial data and the use of more sophisticated modeling techniques that explicitly account for temporal correlation.     

Vertical tectonics of the High Plateau region,Manihiki Plateau,Western Pacific,from seismic stratigraphy

The Manihiki Plateau is an elevated oceanic volcanic plateau that was formed mostly in Early Cretaceous time by hotspot activity. We analyze new seismic reflection data acquired on cruise KIWI 12 over the High Plateau region in the southeast of the plateau, to look for direct evidence of the location of the heat source and the timing of uplift, subsidence and faulting. These data are correlated with previous seismic reflection lines from cruise CATO 3, and with the results at DSDP Site 317 at the northern edge of the High Plateau. Seven key reflectors are identified from the seismic reflection profiles and the resulting isopach maps show local variations in thickness in the southeastern part of the High Plateau, suggesting a subsidence (cooling) event in this region during Late Cretaceous and up to Early Eocene time. We model this as a hotspot, active and centered on the High Plateau area during Early Cretaceous time in a near-ridge environment. The basement and Early Cretaceous volcaniclastic layers were formed by subaerial and shallow-water eruption due to the volcanic activity. After that, the plateau experienced erosion. The cessation of hotspot activity and subsequent heat loss by Late Cretaceous time caused the plateau to subside rapidly. The eastern and southern portions of the High Plateau were rifted away following the cessation of hot spot activity. As the southeastern portion of the High Plateau was originally higher and above the calcium carbonate compensation depth, it accumulated more sediments than the surrounding plateau regions. Apparently coeval with the rapid subsidence of the plateau are normal faults found at the SE edge of the plateau. Since Early Eocene time, the plateau subsided to its present depth without significant deformation.     

西南印度洋岩浆补给特征研究:来自洋壳厚度的证据

西南印度洋中脊为典型的超慢速扩张洋中脊,其岩浆补给具有不均匀分布的特征.洋壳厚度是洋中脊和热点岩浆补给的综合反映,因此反演洋壳厚度是研究大尺度洋中脊和洋盆岩浆补给过程的一种有效方法.本文通过对全球公开的自由空气重力异常、水深、沉积物厚度和洋壳年龄数据处理得到剩余地幔布格重力异常,并反演西南印度洋地区洋壳厚度,定量地分析了西南印度洋的洋壳厚度分布及其岩浆补给特征.研究发现,西南印度洋洋壳平均厚度7.5 km,但变化较大,标准差可达3.5 km,洋壳厚度的频率分布具有双峰式的混合偏态分布特征.通过分离双峰统计的结果,将西南印度洋洋壳厚度分为0~4.8 km的薄洋壳、4.8~9.8 km的正常洋壳和9.8~24 km的厚洋壳三种类型,洋中脊地区按洋壳厚度变化特征可划分为7个洋脊段.西南印度洋地区薄洋壳受转换断层控制明显,转换断层位移量越大,引起的洋壳减薄厚度越大,减薄范围与转换断层位移量不存在明显相关性.厚洋壳主要受控于该区众多的热点活动,其中布维热点、马里昂热点和克洛泽热点的影响范围分别约340 km,550 km和900 km.Andrew Bain转换断层北部外角形成厚的洋壳,具有与快速扩张洋中脊相似的转换断层厚洋壳特征.     

He, Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic constraints on the origin of the Marquesas and other linear volcanic chains

The classic hotspot hypothesis [Morgan, W. J., 1971. Convection plumes in the lower mantle. Nature 230, 42–43], which posits that linear volcanic chains are traces of fixed plumes in the mantle on moving lithospheric plates, was instrumental in elevating the plate tectonics paradigm in the 1960s into a modern Earth Science theory. The hypothesis itself, however, remains conjectural because many of its predictions, particularly the simple age-progressive type of volcanism, are not observed in many linear volcanic chains. As an alternative explanation, it is proposed that linear volcanic chains are formed through magmatism along pre-existing lines of weakness such as transform zones and old sutures, or along cracks created by stresses on lithospheric plates. The Marquesas linear volcanic chain in south-central Pacific has geologic features that are consistent with some of the predictions of both hypotheses. To better constrain the origin of this volcanic chain, we collected major and trace element and Sr, Nd, Pb, and He isotopic data from several Marquesan lavas. Our new analyses combined with literature data classify the samples into the well established tholeiitic to mildly alkalic, low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, high ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, shield-building volcanic phase lava group and highly alkalic, high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, post-shield phase group. Lead isotopes show generally higher ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios and suggest evidence of crustal assimilation for the shield-building phase lavas, consistent with the argument that the shield-building phase volcanism has a lithospheric source component. On the other hand, post-shield phase lavas that are predicted to represent the true composition of the mantle source by the hotspot hypothesis have higher ³He/⁴He ratios and these are coupled to other geochemical tracers. Thus our results show that the Marquesas volcanic chain, similar to many other linear volcanic chains, has a high ³He/⁴He component in its mantle source. The presence of such a distinct source component cannot be easily explained by dispersed upper mantle heterogeneities, but provides a powerful constraint for the hotspot origin of many linear volcanic chains.     

现代地图学主要理论与方法探析

本文首先讨论了现代地图学的定义,然后重点分析了现代地图学应包含的主要研究内容———主要理论研究内容及其技术方法。最后探讨了当前现代地图学研究的热点问题。     

A Late Cretaceous pole for the Pacific plate: implications for apparent and true polar wander and the drift of hotspots

We present a Late Cretaceous (81 Ma) pole position for the Pacific plate derived from paleomagnetic analyses of basalt samples from Detroit Seamount (of the Hawaiian–Emperor seamounts) that were oriented using Brunhes-age overprints. This pole is at much higher latitudes than the previously published Late Cretaceous pole positions based on the modeling of magnetic anomalies observed during marine surveys over seamounts. Our new pole suggests that the Pacific plate would have moved rapidly between 95 and 81 Ma at speeds as high as 19.8 (−10.8/+11.2) cm/year. The Pacific plate at this time was smaller than the present-day plate and had a substantial subducting boundary. The high-velocity estimates are comparable with those of other paleoplates having similar characteristics. Therefore, plate tectonic driving forces can explain the motion and there is no need to invoke true polar wander. Decreases in mantle drag associated with vigorous Late Cretaceous volcanism in the Pacific, however, may have contributed to the rapid plate speed. The new pole position, together with other reliable paleomagnetic indicators of Pacific apparent polar wander, further supports the notion of drift of the Hawaiian hotspot during the Late Cretaceous.     

Structure and evolution of the volcanic rift zone at Ponta de São Lourenço,eastern Madeira

Ponta de São Lourenço is the deeply eroded eastern end of Madeira’s east–west trending rift zone, located near the geometric intersection of the Madeira rift axis with that of the Desertas Islands to the southeast. It dominantly consists of basaltic pyroclastic deposits from Strombolian and phreatomagmatic eruptions, lava flows, and a dike swarm. Main differences compared to highly productive rift zones such as in Hawai’i are a lower dike intensity (50–60 dikes/km) and the lack of a shallow magma reservoir or summit caldera. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age determinations show that volcanic activity at Ponta de São Lourenço lasted from >5.2 to 4 Ma (early Madeira rift phase) and from 2.4 to 0.9 Ma (late Madeira rift phase), with a hiatus dividing the stratigraphy into lower and upper units. Toward the east, the distribution of eruptive centers becomes diffuse, and the rift axis bends to parallel the Desertas ridge. The bending may have resulted from mutual gravitational influence of the Madeira and Desertas volcanic edifices. We propose that Ponta de São Lourenço represents a type example for the interior of a fading rift arm on oceanic volcanoes, with modern analogues being the terminations of the rift zones at La Palma and El Hierro (Canary Islands). There is no evidence for Ponta de São Lourenço representing a former central volcano that interconnected and fed the Madeira and Desertas rifts. Our results suggest a subdivision of volcanic rift zones into (1) a highly productive endmember characterized by a central volcano with a shallow magma chamber feeding one or more rift arms, and (2) a less productive endmember characterized by rifts fed from deep-seated magma reservoirs rather than from a central volcano, as is the case for Ponta de São Lourenço.