利用烈度数据点估算中强历史地震震级与震中的方法研究

本文基于地震烈度数据点,用椭圆参数方程对烈度点空间分布进行最小二乘拟合,得到各烈度区椭圆烈度估计线,然后对烈度估计线进行统计回归,得到一组适用于青、甘、川、滇4省中强地震的椭圆烈度分布模型I=f（M,R）.基于所建烈度分布模型,联立考虑中心点和方向性的椭圆数学方程,代入全部烈度数据点估算地震震级和宏观震中.本文的试算震例表明了此方法的可行性,并进行了不确定性分析.利用该方法对明清时期4次烈度点较少的中强历史地震参数进行了估算,所得结果表明了此方法对历史地震有效.     

Location Accuracy of the China National Seismograph Network Estimated by Repeating Events

INTRODUCTIONDigital seismological observation in China has had a significant development in recent years,especiallysince the last five years(Liu Ruifeng,et al.,2003).For further development,it isnecessarytoassessthe monitoringcapabilityof the existingseismological network.One of theimportantassessments is the estimation of regionalizedlocation accuracy.Upto present,several approaches have been proposed to assess the location accuracy,such asthe groundtruth event approach(e.g.,Lienert,199…     

2003年6、7月西昌二次4.8级地震的预测与分析

2003年6月17日和7月10日,先后在四川省西昌市和西昌-昭觉间发生2次ML4 8级强有感地震.对于这2次地震,我们曾作了较好的中期和短期预测.但是对于6月17日发生的第一次ML4 8级地震,未能做出临震预测;对于第二次地震,则在7月1日向上级填报的周会商表中作了明确的临震预测,7月10日,在西昌-昭觉间发生了ML4.8级地震.根据西昌地震遥测台网各子台的P波初动求解震源机制,结合地震所处的地质构造以及现场烈度考察圈定出的结果分析,认为这二次地震是由安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂、凉山断裂所围成的凉山小菱形块体活动的结果.     

Hydrogeochemical Precursors in Kamchatka (Russia) Related to the Strongest Earthquakes in 1988–1997

The Kamchatka peninsula, located in the far east of Russia, is a geologically active margin where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the North American and Eurasia plates. This area is characterised by frequent and strong seismic activity (magnitudes up to 8.5) and epicentres are generally distributed offshore along the eastern coast of the peninsula. For many years, hydrogeochemicals have been collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the flow rate and the most common ions and gases in the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, where the capital city Petropavlovsk is located. Beginning in 1988, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 occurred in this area. These earthquakes were powerful enough to be considered as potential precursor sources in the sense that the stresses and strains building up before them might be expected to cause precursory activity. In order to reveal any possible precursors of these earthquakes, we analysed the hydrogeochemical data collected. We considered any signal having an amplitude three times the standard deviation to be an irregularity and we defined as an anomaly the existence of an irregularity occurring simultaneously in more than one parameter at each well. Then, on the basis of the worldwide past results and the time recurrence of the quoted earthquakes, we chose 158 days as the maximum temporal window between a possible anomaly and the subsequent earthquake. We identified some premonitory anomalies in hydrogeochemical parameters at different wells. On the basis of these results some earthquake forecasting criteria in southern Kamchatka may be tentatively formulated     

关于在地震预报中遇到的几个问题的探讨

地震台站工作人员 ,在进行观测资料分析、地震预报研究过程中 ,往往会遇到的几个问题 :1、手段单一 ,对于前兆现象无法全面表述。 2、如何识别异常与地震之间的关系。 3、如何兼顾点和面的关系。     

Pn arrivals and lateral variations of Moho geometry beneath the Kaapvaal craton

Pn arrivals from mining-induced earthquakes on the edge of the Witwatersrand basin show that the P wavespeeds in the uppermost mantle are almost constant throughout most of the Kaapvaal craton. The presence of only small wavespeed variations allows the use of a simple method of estimating crustal thicknesses below the stations of the Kaapvaal broad-band network using Pn times that has been compared with results from receiver functions. One thousand three hundred thirty-seven Pn arrivals were used to derive crustal thicknesses at 46 stations on the Kaapvaal craton. The average crustal thicknesses for 19 centrally located stations on each of the northern and southern regions of the craton that yielded well-constrained thicknesses were 50.52±0.88 km and 38.07±0.85 km, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding average thicknesses determined from receiver functions were 43.58±0.57 km and 37.58±0.70 km, respectively. The systematically lower values for receiver functions in the northern part of the Kaapvaal craton that was affected by the Bushveld magmatism at 2.05 Ga, suggest that the receiver functions do not enable the petrological crust mantle boundary to be reliably resolved due to variations in composition and metamorphic grade in a mafic lower crust. The Pn times also suggest pervasive azimuthal anisotropy with maximum wavespeeds of about 8.40 km/s at azimuths of about 15° and 217° in the northern and southern regions of the craton, respectively, and minimum wavespeeds of about 8.25 km/s.     

Archaeoseismological investigation of the ancient Ayla site in the city of Aqaba,Jordan

Many tens of severe earthquake damage patterns were revealed at the ancient city of Ayla. The seismic deformation patterns are of various types, including systematic tilting of walls, systematic shifting and rotation of wall fragments and individual stones, arch deformations and joints crossing two or more stones. Features of later repair, supporting walls and secondary use of building stones suggest that the damage patterns can be explained by two historical devastating earthquakes: (I) revealed in the constructions built during the late Rashidun period (644–656 A.D.); (II) revealed in the structures restored and/or built during the Fatimid period (1050–1116 A.D.). The maximum observed intensity of both earthquakes at the studied site was not less than IX (EMS98 scale). The sources of the seismic events were probably the Dead Sea Transform and Wadi Araba Faults that cross the site obliquely. The last 1995 Nuweiba earthquake with maximum observed intensity VIII has also left its clear traces in the excavated ancient Ayla buildings. The severity of the destruction was significantly increased because of site effects.     

The earthquake foci and deep structure of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle along the southern Sakhalin-Sea of Okhotsk-Kamchatka profile

The Kuril-Kamchatka seismofocal zone was thought to be a single plate approximately 90 km wide and dipping to a depth of 700 km at an angle of 40°–45°. This concept reflects primarily the physical differences (elastic wave velocities, density, temperature, etc.) between the seismofocal zone and the mantle hosting it. Detailed investigations show that the seismofocal zone proper is also heterogeneous with earthquake hypocenters variably concentrated and clustered within this zone, where both seismogenic and aseismic strata, as well as subvertical zones, can be identified. The latter are reflected in the structure and faults of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle.     

Management of Historical Seismic Data Using GIS: The Island of Ischia (Southern Italy)

This paper presents the results of the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) inmanaging information on the effects of earthquakes in historical times on the island ofIschia. The unpublished sources on the Casamicciola earthquake of 28 July 1883 andthe extensive bibliography documenting the island's seismicity from 1228 showed theneed to proceed towards a type of data storage that would also allow management ofthe same data. Application of GIS techniques allowed us to insert, extract, handle,manage and analyse the data for the zoning of seismic damage on the island of Ischia.The end-product consists of information layers, such as maps of isoseismals, the damage, and hazard involved, as well as numerical tables associated to maps.The study was developed using GIS Arc-View 3.2 software (ESRI) and is structured inthematic vectorial levels and rasters. The overlapping themes constitute a cartographicdata base of the island. The damaged sites are located on a map at a scale of 1:10,000,with all the information on the 1883 earthquake (total number of houses, number ofcollapsed houses, collapsed or damaged rooms, photographs, plans of buildings, etc.)being associated to each site. The GIS is structured in such a way as to be able to beintegrated with further georeferenced data and with other databases. It is thus able toprovide support both for in-depth analyses of the dynamic processes on the island andextend the assessment to other natural risks (volcanic, landslides, flooding, etc.).