“一带一路”建设气象服务能力分析

自2013年提出“一带一路”倡议以来,建设成果丰硕。“一带一路”涵盖亚、欧、非三大洲,地域广阔,气候复杂,气象灾害种类多,影响大。文章从“一带一路”区域的气象灾害事实为出发点,分析了在“一带一路”建设实施过程中所面临的气象灾害风险,并结合中央气象台的实际业务能力和潜力,在现有能力的基础上提出：1）建立“一带一路”专项气象服务机构,开展气象灾害风险预评估业务,有利于为“一带一路”建设提供安全保障;2）加强国际合作,实现资料共享,提高气象服务能力;3）加强“一带一路”灾害性天气的监测、预警,规避或减轻气象灾害造成的损失;4）拓展“一带一路”气象服务的传播手段,开展有针对性的气象服务。     

“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系

共建“一带一路”倡议致力于建设开放型经济、确保自由包容性贸易。本文基于社区发现法、拓扑网络可视化等方法,对比分析“一带一路”贸易网络与全球贸易网络的拓扑关系,明确其贸易在全球的地位,以期为“一带一路”自由包容性贸易体系建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：①全球贸易网络可以识别出5个组团,其核心节点分别是中国、美国、德—荷—法—英等欧洲发达国家、俄罗斯、印度—阿联酋。②“一带一路”沿线可以识别出3个主组团及2个次组团,其中,亚欧大组团以中国为核心、俄罗斯为次核心,南亚—西亚组团以印度、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯为核心。③在全球贸易网络中,大部分沿线国家仍被中国、俄罗斯、印度—阿联酋等核心节点所吸引,且与“一带一路”沿线的贸易联系较强;中东欧国家主要被德—荷—法—英等西欧国家核心节点所吸引,是“一带一路”低渗透国家;部分东南亚国家虽然被吸纳到以中国为核心的亚澳—南非组团,但与“一带一路”贸易联系还需加强。     

塔里木盆地寒武－奥陶系生油岩成油期─－兼谈喜山晚期“二次生油”

寒武－奥陶系生油岩是塔里木盆地主力油源，尤以满加尔坳陷发育最佳。本文以基础数据为依据，主要论述该套烃源岩的成油期问题，认为寒武系生油岩主成油期为古生代，并在中新生代具二次生油特点；奥陶系生油岩主成油期为海西晚期（满加尔坳陷）和中新生代。塔北、塔中诸多高产油气田中的油气主要为中新生代所形成。     

喜马拉雅地区传统贸易通道演变过程及动力机制

喜马拉雅地区传统贸易通道是突破喜马拉雅山脉天然屏障、连接中国与南亚腹地两大市场的关键,对于南亚大通道建设和跨喜马拉雅互联互通建设具有重要的战略意义。本文以喜马拉雅山脉断裂河谷为出发点,综合历史文献、实地调查及GIS技术手段,分析通道的空间分布特征、演变过程及动力机制。研究表明：① 喜马拉雅地区的传统贸易通道主要有21条,其中中尼通道6条,中不通道4条,中印通道11条,在空间上形成了“一横多纵”的空间格局。② 传统贸易通道的发展经历了萌芽期（7世纪以前）、形成期（7世纪—842年）、发展期（842—1959年）、衰落期（1959—1962年）和恢复期（1962年至今）的演变过程。③ 货物交换和佛教传播促进了通道的萌芽和形成,西藏及中原地方政权稳定和边贸政策、英国的殖民扩张和商业利益推动了通道的发展,印度的战略误判和前进政策导致了通道的衰落,中国的战略需求将推动通道的恢复和建设。④ 战略互信和边界问题是通道恢复和建设面临的主要障碍,未来需要加强对通道的多视角调查和研究,制定通道的建设和管控策略,充分发挥通道的商贸、旅游和文化交流功能,积极服务于南亚大通道建设,促进西藏边疆地区的稳定与发展。     

“一带一路”倡议下中国与重要节点地区的贸易格局及影响因素--以外高加索国家为例

外高加索国家地处欧亚十字路口,是古丝绸之路上的重要国家,也是“一带一路”的核心节点,区位战略意义重大。该文分析了外高加索三国自1991年独立以来中国与其贸易发展历程,借助HM指数和贸易互补性指数,从贸易总体格局和贸易商品特征两个角度分析双向贸易关系,并探究了影响其贸易发展的因素。结果表明:1)中国与外高加索三国长期保持贸易往来,贸易总额呈波动攀升趋势,阶段性特征明显;贸易差额起伏变化,整体长期维持贸易顺差状态;外高加索三国对中国的贸易依赖性显著大于中国对其依赖性。2)中国对外高加索三国出口商品互补性显著高于进口互补性,说明与作为中国进口商品来源国相比,外高加索三国作为中国商品的消费市场更具优势;中国对外高加索三国出口商品类型较为相似,结构呈集中与多元并存态势,主要出口商品逐步由资源、劳动密集型的低附加值商品向技术密集型等高附加值商品转变,而中国自外高加索三国进口的商品类型虽有所扩展,但主要类型仍较为单一,高度集中于未加工或半加工类资源型商品。3)地理距离、政局稳定性、产业结构、地缘关系、贸易环境及便利性是影响中国与外高加索三国贸易发展的主要因素。     

长江岸线的空间功能、开发问题及管理对策

基于长江岸线空间功能的理念,从历史演变的角度梳理了长江岸线开发功能分异的过程,总结了岸线开发功能定位的科学依据,并剖析了长江岸线开发的区域功能。归纳了长江岸线开发条件评估的技术体系,并综合分析了长江干流（宜宾以下）岸线的开发条件状况及利用现状,提出了长江岸线资源利用中存在的缺少科学的开发时序安排、资源潜力没有得到充分发挥、功能布局不合理、不当开发易造成生态破坏、缺少有效的管理机制等问题。最后,从推进法制建设,破除行政壁垒,建立有偿使用机制,促进功能协调等方面提出加强岸线资源管理的对策,以期为长江岸线科学有效管理与保护提供借鉴。     

西部地区对外开放度的测算与比较研究

在"一带一路"战略构想提出后,我国经济发展步入新常态,区域对外开放面临新的机遇,尤其是西部地区作为国家向西开放战略实施重点,通过加快互联互通、大通关和国际物流大通道建设,扩大内陆和沿边开放,积极走进国际市场,参与全球竞争,主动适应新常态。本文从经济、文化、社会、政策这四个方面建立对外开放度测算指标体系,采用主成分分析法和加权平均法,分别从时间和地域尺度上对西部地区的对外开放度进行测算和比较,最后根据测算结果分析各区域的对外开放发展趋势,为扩大对外开放格局提出相关建议。     

Early Paleozoic Magmatism in Himalayan Orogen: The Geochronological Study on Augen Gneisses from Gyirongand Nyalam Areas,Southern Tibet

In the Gyirong and Nyalam areas, a massive amount of augen gneisses are extensively exposed in the middle Himalayan orogen. They consist of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase, biotite and minor muscovite. Zircons from augen gneisses have magmatic rims indicated by concentric oscillatory zoning. LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating gave weighted mean ages of (488.5±1.1) Ma (MSWD=0.6)、(475.1±0.7) Ma (MSWD=1.5) and (468.1±2.5) Ma (MSWD=4.2), hinting early Paleozoic magmatism in the Greater Himalayan Crystalline complex (GHC). The data in this study and other published geochronological results of Cambrian-Ordovician magmatites demonstrated that early Paleozoic orogenesis existed in the Himalayas. Early Paleozoic tectonic events preserved in Himalayas are well compared with the contemporaneous ones in the Lhasa terrane, Qiangtang terrane, Baoshan terrane and Tengchong terrane located in the south and southeast of Tibet Plateau. Integrating previous studies, we suggested an Andean-type orogeny corresponding to dynamic adjusting of the plates by subduction of the Proto-Tethys Ocean lithosphere along the northern margin of Gondwana, instead of Pan-African orogeny that was characterized by the continent-continent collisions during Gondwana assembly.     

Genesis of the Bangbu Orogenic Gold Deposit,Tibet: Evidence from Fluid Inclusion,Stable Isotopes,and Ar-Ar Geochronology

The Bangbu gold deposit is a large orogenic gold deposit in Tibet formed during the AlpineHimalayan collision. Ore bodies(auriferous quartz veins) are controlled by the E-W-trending Qusong-Cuogu-Zhemulang brittle-ductile shear zone. Quartz veins at the deposit can be divided into three types: pre-metallogenic hook-like quartz veins, metallogenic auriferous quartz veins, and postmetallogenic N-S quartz veins. Four stages of mineralization in the auriferous quartz veins have been identified:(1) Stage S1 quartz+coarse-grained sulfides,(2) Stage S2 gold+fine-grained sulfides,(3) Stage S3 quartz+carbonates, and(4) Stage S4 quartz+ greigite. Fluid inclusions indicate the oreforming fluid was CO_2-N_2-CH_4 rich with homogenization temperatures of 170–261°C, salinities 4.34–7.45 wt% Na Cl equivalent. δ~(18)Ofluid(3.98‰–7.18‰) and low δDV-SMOW(-90‰ to-44‰) for auriferous quartz veins suggest ore-forming fluids were mainly metamorphic in origin, with some addition of organic matter. Quartz vein pyrite has δ~(34)SV-CDT values of 1.2‰–3.6‰(an average of 2.2‰), whereas pyrite from phyllite has δ~(34)SV-CDT 5.7‰–9.9‰(an average of 7.4‰). Quartz vein pyrites yield 206Pb/204 Pb ratios of 18.662–18.764, 207Pb/204 Pb 15.650–15.683, and ~(208)Pb/204 Pb 38.901–39.079. These isotopic data indicate Bangbu ore-forming materials were probably derived from the Langjiexue accretionary wedge. 40Ar/39 Ar ages for sericite from auriferous sulfide-quartz veins yield a plateau age of 49.52 ± 0.52 Ma, an isochron age of 50.3 ± 0.31 Ma, suggesting that auriferous veins were formed during the main collisional period of the Tibet-Himalayan orogen(~65–41 Ma).     

Regional metamorphism and the alteration response of selected Silurian to Devonian mineral systems in the Nymagee area,Central Lachlan Orogen,New South Wales: a HyLogger™ case study

The southern Cobar Superbasin includes the Mount Hope, Cobar and Rast troughs and adjacent Winduck, Mouramba and Kopyje shelves. These stratotectonic units host a range of mineral systems within deformed upper Silurian to Lower Devonian rocks. Despite the metallogenic importance of the terrane the regional metamorphic- and alteration-related mineral assemblages have not been systematically described until now. Here, we present a study using the HyLogger? spectral scanner to systematically map changes in both background and alteration-related mineralogy for 14 mineral systems across the Nymagee area. The study found that, with the exception of the late diagenetic zone assemblages associated with the Winduck Shelf, the mineral assemblages for zones away from mineralisation are consistent with uniform sub- to lowest-greenschist facies metamorphic conditions, with no evidence for a regional, thermal field gradient across the basin. By contrast, proximal to mineralisation, there are significant changes in alteration-related mineral abundances and species reflecting elevated fluid temperatures. For several zones, including Browns Reef, Great Central, Hera, May Day, Nymagee and Shuttleton, there is a systematic change in chlorite composition from Fe- and/or Fe–Mg-chlorites to more Mg-rich varieties towards mineralisation. In addition, talc was noted for May Day, Mineral Hill and Shuttleton. The change in chlorite composition suggests that these ore-forming fluids were undersaturated with respect to iron. Furthermore, although present in discrete zones, carbonate alteration is not a dominant alteration type. However, at Manuka and Blue Mountain, the mineralisation is associated with carbonate-rich (calcite, ankerite, dolomite) units that have been dolomitised (Mg alteration) but not all dolomite-rich zones are mineralised. For Mineral Hill, there are systematic changes to mineral species/chemistry with observed data consistent with Parkers Hill being proximal to the centre of a mineralising system. The G and H Lode area (Southern Ore Zone) is slightly more distal whereas the Pearse deposit may represent a zone more distal again.