甘肃西北部黑河流域水资源对下游生态环境变化的影响阈

从流域尺度水资源承载能力及其有限性、可变性和上下游关联性的角度,探讨了黑河流域下游区生态环境变化的影响阈,阐明了不同水文年中游区的安全引水量和不同目标下下游区的生态环境修复对水资源的需求阈.基于多年平均地表径流量37.8×108m3/a的安全引水量为13.97×108m3/a和枯水年份(95%保证率)的安全引水量为10.14×108m3/a,下游区初步改善生态环境的生态需水量为8.01×108m3/a.提出了中游区经济社会可持续发展的水资源保障阈,即未来20年生产生活安全需水量介于22×108～23×108m3/a之间.在此基础上,阐明了在中游区经济社会稳定持续发展目标约束下确保黑河流域下游区生态环境不断改善的流域水资源优化配置模式及对策.     

流域水文模型研究进展

本文介绍了流域水文模型的分类,论述了流域水文模型基础理论——产汇流理论的发展及其自身的研究进展,探讨了流域水文模型的研究趋势和发展困境,并对未来做出了展望,以期能推进流域水文模型的研究。     

Holistic approach of GIS based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and WetSpass models to evaluate groundwater potential in Gelana watershed of Ethiopia

Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management, planning and development of groundwater resources. Groundwater potential assessment and delineation in a highly heterogeneous environment with limited Spatiotemporal data derived from Gelana watershed of Abaya Chamo lake basin is performed, using integrated multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), water and energy transfer between soil and plant and atmosphere under quasi-steady state (WetSpass) models. The outputs of the WetSpass model reveal a favorable structure of water balance in the basin studied, mainly using surface runoff. The simulated total flow and groundwater recharge are validated using river measurements and estimated baseflow at two gauging stations located in the study area, which yields a good agreement. The WetSpass model effectively integrates a water balance assessment in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. The WetSpass model is shown to be computationally reputable for such a remote complex setting as the African rift, with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.99 for total flow and baseflow at a significant level of p-value<0.05, respectively. The simulated annual water budget reveals that 77.22% of annual precipitation loses through evapotranspiration, of which 16.54% is lost via surface runoff while 6.24% is recharged to the groundwater. The calibrated groundwater recharge from the WetSpass model is then considered when determining the controlling factors of groundwater occurrence and formation, together with other multi-thematic layers such as lithology, geomorphology, lineament density and drainage density. The selected five thematic layers through MCDA are incorporated by employing the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to identify the relative dominance in groundwater potential zoning. The weighted factors in the AHP are procedurally aggregated, based on weighted linear combinations to provide the groundwater potential index. Based on the potential indexes, the area then is demarcated into low, moderate, and high groundwater potential zones (GWPZ). The identified GWPZs are finally examined using the existing groundwater inventory data (static water level and springs) in the region. About 70.7% of groundwater inventory points are coinciding with the delineated GWPZs. The weighting comparison shows that lithology, geomorphology, and groundwater recharge appear to be the dominant factors influence on the resources potential. The assessment of groundwater potential index values identify 45.88% as high, 39.38% moderate, and 14.73% as low groundwater potential zones. WetSpass model analysis is more preferable in the area like Gelana watershed when the topography is rugged, inaccessible and having limited gauging stations.     

基于文献记录的黑河流域历史时期旱涝特征分析

流域的旱涝灾害特征及其变化规律是流域水资源演变研究的重要内容。利用历史文献资料重建了西北内陆河黑河流域公元0-1949年的旱涝灾害等级序列,结合滑动平均、小波变换处理等方法,探讨了流域历史时期旱涝等级的频数特征、旱涝变化的周期特征及其与气候冷暖和人类活动之间的关系。对公元1000年以后的旱涝灾害规律进行分析,结果表明：流域存在5个旱灾高发阶段（1230-1270年、1430-1530年、1640-1760年、1860-1890年、1900-1940年）,3个涝灾高发期（1650-1690年、1730-1790年、1830-1910年）,并呈现出旱涝灾害频发的态势;1000-1949年期间,流域旱涝灾害存在4个准周期变化,对比发现这与太阳黑子活动等环境变化周期有紧密的联系;1580年以前,气候冷暖是影响旱涝灾害发生的主要因子,但16世纪以后,旱涝灾害交替频发,很可能是人类活动加剧了该现象。所以,定量辨析自然因素和人类活动对流域旱涝灾害的影响将是未来研究的重点方向。     

逸度模型在湖泊流域农药多介质归趋研究中的应用与展望

农药的施用在促进农业经济发展的同时,也带来了诸多环境问题.农药由农业活动排放进入到环境后会通过不同的途径在各介质之间进行迁移和转化,最后由径流作用汇聚于湖泊中,破坏生态环境,影响人类健康.因此,研究湖泊流域生态系统中农药的多介质归趋具有重要意义.使用基于逸度的多介质模型模拟农药在环境中的行为是一个十分有效的方法.逸度模型利用"逸度"的概念描述污染物在各个环境介质之间的迁移和转化过程趋势,其结果建立在化学物质自身物化性质和环境系统性质之上,不仅适用于预测农药在环境各介质中的残留水平,还可以揭示区域内污染的空间分布特征,是湖泊流域生态系统管理中一个重要的工具.本文综述了逸度模型的理论基础,对近年来国内外逸度模型的发展现状、相关环境模型及其在农药归趋研究和湖泊流域生态系统管理中的运用进行了总结,并展望了逸度模型在农药多介质研究中的应用前景,以期对我国农药的管理、合理施用方面提供科学与技术支持.     

湖泊水情遥感研究进展

湖泊作为最直接的淡水资源之一,在人类的生产、生活各方面都占据至关重要的地位.受到全球气候变化与人类活动的影响,湖泊正在发生急剧变化,因而有必要对其进行快速、准确的时空变化监测,从而为水资源管理与保护、未来气候变化预警提供依据.遥感技术的产生与发展为大范围、实时动态的湖泊变化监测提供了难得的契机,它克服了人类对湖泊实地考察的局限性.本文对现有国内外湖泊水情遥感监测技术与方法进行了综合梳理,主要综述了国内外在湖泊水域范围提取、湖泊水位提取、湖泊水量估算、流域水文过程等方面的遥感研究进展情况,重点总结了该领域近年来提出的新方法和新技术.最后,结合当前遥感技术的发展,对未来遥感在湖泊动态变化监测中的应用潜力和趋势进行了简要论述,并对多源遥感数据融合与云计算平台的结合在地表水体连续变化监测中的应用进行了展望.     

Evaluating soil water routing approaches in watershed-scale,ecohydrologic modelling

Soil water dynamics are central in linking and regulating natural cycles in ecohydrology, however, mathematical representation of soil water processes in models is challenging given the complexity of these interactions. To assess the impacts of soil water simulation approaches on various model outputs, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was modified to accommodate an alternative soil water percolation method and tested at two geographically and climatically distinct, instrumented watersheds in the United States. Soil water was evaluated at the site scale via measured observations, and hydrologic and biophysical outputs were analysed at the watershed scale. Results demonstrated an improved Kling–Gupta Efficiency of up to 0.3 and a reduction in percent bias from 5 to 25% at the site scale, when soil water percolation was changed from a threshold, bucket-based approach to an alternative approach based on variable hydraulic conductivity. The primary difference between the approaches was attributed to the ability to simulate soil water content above field capacity for successive days; however, regardless of the approach, a lack of site-specific characterization of soil properties by the soils database at the site scale was found to severely limit the analysis. Differences in approach led to a regime shift in percolation from a few, high magnitude events to frequent, low magnitude events. At the watershed scale, the variable hydraulic conductivity-based approach reduced average annual percolation by 20–50 mm, directly impacting the water balance and subsequently biophysical predictions. For instance, annual denitrification increased by 14–24 kg/ha for the new approach. Overall, the study demonstrates the need for continued efforts to enhance soil water model representation for improving biophysical process simulations.     

Spatial analysis of instream nitrogen loads and factors controlling nitrogen delivery to streams in the southeastern United States using spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) and regional classification frameworks

Understanding how nitrogen transport across the landscape varies with landscape characteristics is important for developing sound nitrogen management policies. We used a spatially referenced regression analysis (SPARROW) to examine landscape characteristics influencing delivery of nitrogen from sources in a watershed to stream channels. Modelled landscape delivery ratio varies widely (by a factor of 4) among watersheds in the southeastern United States—higher in the western part (Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi) than in the eastern part, and the average value for the region is lower compared to other parts of the nation. When we model landscape delivery ratio as a continuous function of local‐scale landscape characteristics, we estimate a spatial pattern that varies as a function of soil and climate characteristics but exhibits spatial structure in residuals (observed load minus predicted load). The spatial pattern of modelled landscape delivery ratio and the spatial pattern of residuals coincide spatially with Level III ecoregions and also with hydrologic landscape regions. Subsequent incorporation into the model of these frameworks as regional scale variables improves estimation of landscape delivery ratio, evidenced by reduced spatial bias in residuals, and suggests that cross‐scale processes affect nitrogen attenuation on the landscape. The model‐fitted coefficient values are logically consistent with the hypothesis that broad‐scale classifications of hydrologic response help to explain differential rates of nitrogen attenuation, controlling for local‐scale landscape characteristics. Negative model coefficients for hydrologic landscape regions where the primary flow path is shallow ground water suggest that a lower fraction of nitrogen mass will be delivered to streams; this relation is reversed for regions where the primary flow path is overland flow. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国东部南北方过渡带淮河半湿润区全新世气候变化

淮河流域位于中国东部的南北方过渡带, 属于半湿润区气候环境, 这里既有冬季风从北方干旱半干旱区携带而来的粉尘堆积, 又有江淮地区特有梅雨天气, 但与北方干旱半干旱区和南方湿润区均存在着差异, 因此其古气候环境变化对于理解东亚古气候格局具有十分重要的意义, 然而由于缺乏合适的材料, 对淮河流域古气候的研究一直是全球变化研究中空白地区。本文针对襄城的一个全新世黄土-古土壤连续剖面, 根据粉尘沉降动力学原理, 利用粉尘搬运距离、风力强度、春季近地面气温和有效湿度等几个半定量和定性指数, 分析了淮河流域的全新世气候波动特征, 结果表明:1)淮河半湿润区与北方干旱半干旱区的湿度变化总体有反向波动趋势。大约7.0~3.8ka B.P. 是北方粉尘源区的全新世适宜期, 而在淮河流域环境只有小幅改善。淮河流域的适宜期在大约3.8~1.8ka B.P. 期间, 晚于北方干旱区。2)淮河流域全新世时期冬季风强度一直在持续减弱, 而有效湿度一直在持续增加。大约1.8ka B.P. 以来形成的黄土层是因粉尘源区扩展所致, 并非因冬季风加强。3)淮河流域这种异于北方干旱半干旱区的全新世气候特征是由于印度季风减弱、西太平洋副高西伸增强造成江淮地区梅雨加强, 同时也是淮河地区冬季风减弱致使梅雨带北移的共同作用所造成的。