河北省南部电网夏季电力负荷特征及与气象因子的关系

利用河北省南部电力公司提供的2007-2009年南电网区域逐日最大用电负荷资料,分析了南电网区域夏季日最大负荷变化规律,与其他月份相比,夏季5-8月的日最大电力负荷的波动性明显大于其他月份.采用标准化和相关分析法,逐月分析了气象因子与日最大电力负荷的相关性,并找出了日最大电力负荷的周变化特点,以及节假日对日最大电力负荷的影响.结合农作物生长特点,分析了南部电网日最大电力负荷变化特征,为以后日最大电力负荷预报提供了一定的参考.     

基于中尺度模式与神经网络的风电功率预测

将中尺度数值天气预报模式与BP神经网络模型相结合用于风电功率预测,以WRF模式回算了2008年6月至2009年6月试验风电场的气象要素,精度检验结果显示风速预报值与对应实测值之间的相关系数达到0.72,风向、气温、湿度、气压的预报也比较准确,满足建立BP神经网络预报模型的需要.逐一建立试验风电场40台风电机组输出功率的BP神经网络预报模型,分析了数据标准化方法、隐含层神经元数对预报精度的影响.进行了26天实效为24 h的逐10 min预报试验,并以独立样本进行预报精度检验,结果显示单台风电机组输出功率相对均方根误差在24.8％～32.6％之间,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数现在0.45～0.68之间;风电场整体相对均方根误差为19.5％,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数为0.74.研究结果表明该方法可以用于实际的风电功率预测.     

气候变化背景下湖北省水稻高温热害变化规律研究

利用历年气象资料,运用数理统计方法,分析了湖北省1951—2010年水稻高温热害的动态变化,探讨了气候变化背景下高温热害的演变趋势与规律。结果表明,鄂东部、江汉平原部分地区水稻高温热害发生趋于频繁,且除西南部地区外的湖北省其他地区水稻高温热害最大概率出现的时间均有明显的提前,甚至每10a提前1d以上。最后,利用ArcGIS对湖北省的水稻高温热害变化趋势和风险程度进行了区划。     

Saturn's cloud structure and temporal evolution from ten years of Hubble Space Telescope images (1994-2003)

We present a study of the vertical structure of clouds and hazes in the upper atmosphere of Saturn's Southern Hemisphere during 1994-2003, about one third of a Saturn year, based on Hubble Space Telescope images. The photometrically calibrated WFPC2 images cover the spectral region between the near-UV (218-255 nm) and the near-IR (953-1042 nm), including the 890 nm methane band. Using a radiative transfer code, we have reproduced the observed center-to-limb variations in absolute reflectivity at selected latitudes which allowed us to characterize the vertical structure of the entire hemisphere during this period. A model atmosphere with two haze layers has been used to study the variation of hazes with latitude and to characterize their temporal changes. Both hazes are located above a thick cloud, putatively composed of ammonia ice. An upper thin haze in the stratosphere (between 1 and 10 mbar) is found to be persistent and formed by small particles (radii ∼0.2 μm). The lower thicker haze close to the tropopause level shows a strong latitudinal dependence in its optical thickness (typically τ∼20-40 at the equator but τ∼5 at the pole, at 814 nm). This tropospheric haze is blue-absorbent and extends from 50 to 100 mbar to about ∼400 mbar. Both hazes show temporal variability, but at different time-scales. First, there is a tendency for the optical thickness of the stratospheric haze to increase at all latitudes as insolation increases. Second, the tropospheric haze shows mid-term changes (over time scales from months to 1-2 years) in its optical thickness (typically by a factor of 2). Such changes always occur within a rather narrow latitude band (width ∼5-10°), affecting almost all latitudes but at different times. Third, we detected a long-term (∼10 year) decrease in the blue single-scattering albedo of the tropospheric haze particles, most intense in the equatorial and polar areas. Long-term changes follow seasonal insolation variations smoothly without any apparent delay, suggesting photochemical processes that affect the particles optical properties as well as their size. In contrast, mid-term changes are sudden and show various time-scales, pointing to a dynamical origin.     

激光时间传递技术的进展

激光时间传递技术是通过激光脉冲在空间的传播来实现地面与卫星时钟或地球上远距离两地时钟的同步，它具有很高的准确度和稳定度。一些国家已经成功进行了激光时间传递的试验，结果证明利用激光进行时钟之间的同步是有效可行的。介绍国内外已有的激光时间传递试验的情况和结果，重点介绍美国地面与机载原子钟之间的激光时间比对，以及法国的LASSO(LAser Synchronization from Stationary Orbit)和T2L2(Time Transfer by Laser Link)计划。     

Transport of ionizing radiation in terrestrial-like exoplanet atmospheres

The propagation of ionizing radiation through model atmospheres of terrestrial-like exoplanets is studied for a large range of column densities and incident photon energies using a Monte Carlo code we have developed to treat Compton scattering and photoabsorption. Incident spectra from parent star flares, supernovae, and gamma-ray bursts are modeled and compared to energetic particles in importance. Large irradiation events with fluences of 10⁶-10⁹ erg cm⁻² at the conventional habitable zone can occur at a rate from many per day (flares from young low-mass parent stars) to ∼100 per Gyr (supernovae and gamma-ray bursts). We find that terrestrial-like exoplanets with atmospheres thinner than about 100 g cm⁻² block nearly all X-rays, but transmit and reprocess a significant fraction of incident γ-rays, producing a characteristic, flat surficial spectrum. Thick atmospheres (?100 g cm⁻²) efficiently block even γ-rays, but nearly all the incident energy is redistributed into diffuse UV and visible aurora-like emission, increasing the effective atmospheric transmission by many orders of magnitude. Depending on the presence of molecular UV absorbers and atmospheric thickness, up to 10% of the incident energy can reach the surface as UV reemission. For the Earth, between 2×10⁻³ and 4×10⁻² of the incident flux reaches the ground in the biologically effective 200-320 nm range, depending on O₂/O₃ shielding. For atmospheres thicker than ∼50 g cm⁻² in the case of pure Rayleigh scattering and ∼100 g cm⁻² in the case of O₂/O₃ absorption, the UV reemission exceeds the surficial transmitted ionizing radiation. We also discuss the effects of angle of incidence and derive a modified two-stream approximation solution for the UV transfer. Finally, we suggest that transient atmospheric ionization layers can be frequently created at altitudes lower than the equilibrium layers that result from steady irradiation and winds from the parent star. We suggest that these events can produce frequent fluctuations in atmospheric ionization levels and surficial UV fluxes on terrestrial-like planets.     

The surface composition of Trojan asteroids: constraints set by scattering theory

We present the results of spectral modeling of 17 Trojan asteroids. The surface composition of this group of objects (located just beyond the main belt, trapped in Jupiter's stable Lagrange points) remains uncertain due to an absence of diagnostic absorption features in their spectra. We quantitatively analyze spectra of these objects covering the range 0.3-4.0 μm using the formulation for scattering in a particulate medium developed by Hapke. Since the widest spectral range possible is desired to provide the most robust results, recently measured near-IR spectra are combined with previously published visible and near-IR data. These composite spectra are converted to and modeled in terms of geometric albedo to provide the additional constraint of the absolute brightness of the asteroids. It is important that this modeling is performed for a large number of objects, and results are derived based on trends among best-fit models. Under this rigorous examination, we find that it is unlikely that the red spectral slope is a result of organics on the surfaces, due mainly to the lack of absorptions in the L-band. Instead, anhydrous silicates adequately describe the spectral characteristics of this group of objects. A significant fraction of carbonaceous material is also likely present, but is not responsible for the red spectral slope in these models. Also, using these models, we estimate that these surfaces contain at most a few wt% of H₂O ice and no more than 10-30 wt% of hydrated silicates.     

Distribution of hydrate on Europa: Further evidence for sulfuric acid hydrate

Sulfuric acid hydrate has been proposed as an important species on Europa's surface, the acid being produced by radiolysis of surficial sulfur compounds. We investigated the spectral properties of disordered and crystalline forms of sulfuric acid and suggest that the hydration properties of Europa's hypothesized sulfuric acid lie between two end members: liquid sulfuric acid and its higher crystalline hydrates. The spectra of these end members are similar except for spectral shifts at the band edges. We measured the optical constants of sulfuric acid octahydrate and used these with simple radiative transfer calculations to fit Europa spectra obtained by Galileo's Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS). The global distribution of the hydrate that we associate here with hydrated sulfuric acid shows a strong trailing-side enhancement with a maximum fractional hydrate abundance of 90% by volume, corresponding to a sulfur atom to water molecule ratio of 10%. The hydrate concentration spatially correlates with the ultraviolet and visible absorption of the surface and with the sulfur dioxide concentration. The asymmetric global distribution is consistent with Iogenic plasma ion implantation as the source of the sulfur, possibly modified by electron irradiation and sputtering effects. The variegated distribution also correlates with geologic forms. A high spatial resolution image shows resolved lineae with less hydrate appearing within the lineae than in nearby crustal material. The low concentration of hydrated material in these lineae argues against their conveying sulfurous material to the surface from the putative ocean.