Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy

The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites, Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized by similar geology, morphology and climate.     

A quantitative bifurcation analysis of Hénon-like 2D maps

We numerically study the bifurcations of two nonlinear maps, with the same linear part, which depend on a parameter namely the Hénon quadratic map and the so called beam-beam map. Many families of periodic orbits which bifurcate from the central family, are studied. Each family undergoes a sequence of period doubling bifurcations in the quadratic map, But the behavior of the beam-beam map is completely different. Inverse bifurcations occur in both maps. But some families of the same type which bifurcate inversely in the quadratic map do not bifurcate inversely in the beam-beam map, even though both maps have common linear part.     

A multi-method approach to study the stability of natural slopes and landslide susceptibility mapping

In this paper, a multi-method approach for the assessment of the stability of natural slopes and landslide hazard mapping applied to the Dakar coastal region is presented. This approach is based on the effective combination of geotechnical field and laboratory works, of GIS, and of mechanical (deterministic and numerical) stability analysis. By using this approach, valuable results were gained regarding instability factors, landslide kinematics, simulation of slope failure and coastal erosion. This led to a thorough assessment and strong reduction in the subjectivity of the slope stability and hazard assessment and to the development of an objective landslide danger map of the SW coast of Dakar. Analysis of the results shows that the slides were influenced by the geotechnical properties of the soil, the weathering, the hydrogeological situation, and the erosion by waves. The landslide susceptibility assessment based on this methodological approach has allowed for an appropriate and adequate consideration of the multiple factors affecting the stability and the optimization of planning and investment for land development in the city.     

Computation of Large Anisotropic Seismic Heterogeneities (CLASH)

A general tomographic technique is designed in order (i) to operate in anisotropic media; (ii) to account for the uneven seismic sampling and (iii) to handle massive data sets in a reasonable computing time. One modus operandi to compute a 3-D body wave velocity model relies on surface wave phase velocity measurements. An intermediate step, shared by other approaches, consists in translating, for each period of a given mode branch, the phase velocities integrated along ray paths into local velocity perturbations. To this end, we develop a method, which accounts for the azimuthal anisotropy in its comprehensive form. The weakly non-linear forward problem allows to use a conjugate gradient optimization. The Earth's surface is regularly discretized and the partial derivatives are assigned to the individual grid points. Possible lack of lateral resolution, due to the inescapable uneven ray path coverage, is taken into account through the a priori covariances on parameters with laterally variable correlation lengths. This method allows to efficiently separate the 2ψ and the 4ψ anisotropic effects from the isotropic perturbations. Fundamental mode and overtone phase velocity maps, derived with real Rayleigh wave data sets, are presented and compared with previous maps. The isotropic models concur well with the results of Trampert & Woodhouse. Large 4ψ heterogeneities are located in the tectonically active regions and over the continental lithospheres such as North America, Antarctica or Australia. At various periods, a significant 4ψ signature is correlated with the Hawaii hotspot track. Finally, concurring with the conclusions of Trampert & Woodhouse, our phase velocity maps show that Rayleigh wave data sets do need both 2ψ and 4ψ anisotropic terms.     

Cenozoic tectonic events at the border of the Paraná Basin, São Paulo, Brazil

In the last decade, even in areas that had been considered tectonically stable, a great amount of Cenozoic, including the Quaternary period, structural data have been collected throughout Brazil. The main goal of this study is to describe the Cenozoic structures and tectonic evolution of an area that is located at the border of the Paraná Basin in the state of São Paulo.The research methods consisted of the analysis of: (1) brittle structure data, mainly conjugate fractures and fault slip data; (2) lineaments traced on air photos and TM Landsat and radar images; and (3) a second-order base surface map.The study area, during the Cenozoic, has been affected by five strike–slip tectonic events, which generated mainly strike–slip faults, and secondarily normal and reverse ones. The events were named, from the oldest to the youngest, E1-NE, E2-EW, E3-NW, E4-NS, and E5-NNE; and the maximum principal stresses σ1 strike approximately NE–SW, E–W, NW–SE, N–S, and NNE–SSW, respectively. Event E2-EW seems to have been contemporaneous with the deposition of the Rio Claro Formation, the most important Cenozoic deposit of probable Neogenic age, and also to have controlled the distribution of its deposits. Event E3-NW was the strongest one in the area, as is pointed out by structural data, and the maximum principal stress σ1 of event E5-NNE is partially concordant with the orientation of σH-max of well break-out data in the Paraná Basin, suggesting a Neotectonic activity for this event. Finally, discontinuities parallel and correlated to the directions of strike–slip faults of the Cenozoic events seem to have actively controlled the sculpturing of the relief in the study area.     

辽宁城市活断层探测思路与方法探讨

介绍了开展地震活断层探测的意义及在辽宁省开展地震活断层探测的必要性，对在辽宁城市开展活断层探测的基本思路和方法进行了探讨，选取沈阳，抚顺作为试点城市，设定目标区和目标断裂，分别对活断层危险性，危害性和深部发震构造环境进行评价。在断裂探测过程中，确定初步探测和详细探测两个阶段，主要采用人工地震方法并结合钻探，地震划分结果，对目标区内的目标断裂进行评价。     

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。     

中国大陆及邻近海域的Rayleigh波群速度分布

利用Rayleigh波群速度资料反演得到中国大陆及其临近海域的(70°E-145°E,10°N-55°N)15-120s周期的群速度分布图像. 塔里木盆地在15s处清楚地显示为低速,在16-33s左右没有显示,但在36-5s显示为高速,说明塔里木盆地有较深的根. 青藏高原块体是44s至120s图像中最为突出的低速块体,南面与印度板块的分界线以及与北面的塔里木盆地、柴达木盆地的分界清晰,其块体中西部的速度低于东部. 泰国清迈附近存在一尺度为1000km左右的低速带,可能是青藏高原块体的物质向东南方向迁移造成上地幔物质上涌的结果. 南北地震带表现为强烈的速度梯度带,西面为低速,东面为高速. 中国南海的中央、日本海中央、菲律宾海表现为海洋性地壳. 菲律宾海的图像与地形及地震带完全吻合. 环绕菲律宾海及日本海存在400km左右宽的低速带,可能是岩浆活动带.     

Use of Noise to Augment Training Data: A Neural Network Method of Mineral–Potential Mapping in Regions of Limited Known Deposit Examples

One of the main factors that affects the performance of MLP neural networks trained using the backpropagation algorithm in mineral-potential mapping isthe paucity of deposit relative to barren training patterns. To overcome this problem, random noise is added to the original training patterns in order to create additional synthetic deposit training data. Experiments on the effect of the number of deposits available for training in the Kalgoorlie Terrane orogenic gold province show that both the classification performance of a trained network and the quality of the resultant prospectivity map increasesignificantly with increased numbers of deposit patterns. Experiments are conducted to determine the optimum amount of noise using both uniform and normally distributed random noise. Through the addition of noise to the original deposit training data, the number of deposit training patterns is increased from approximately 50 to 1000. The percentage of correct classifications significantly improves for the independent test set as well as for deposit patterns in the test set. For example, using ±40% uniform random noise, the test-set classification performance increases from 67.9% and 68.0% to 72.8% and 77.1% (for test-set overall and test-set deposit patterns, respectively). Indices for the quality of the resultant prospectivity map, (i.e. D/A, D × (D/A), where D is the percentage of deposits and A is the percentage of the total area for the highest prospectivity map-class, and area under an ROC curve) also increase from 8.2, 105, 0.79 to 17.9, 226, 0.87, respectively. Increasing the size of the training-stop data set results in a further increase in classification performance to 73.5%, 77.4%, 14.7, 296, 0.87 for test-set overall and test-set deposit patterns, D/A, D × (D/A), and area under the ROC curve, respectively.