北京强降雨与道路积水统计分析及应用

利用2007—2011年汛期(6—8月)北京市人民政府防汛抗旱指挥部办公室每日发布的汛情通报、北京市20个气候站日降雨量和200多个自动气象站逐小时降雨量监测数据,对近5年北京强降雨及降雨强度与城区出现道路积水的关系进行统计分析,找出北京城区出现道路积水的降雨量特征、小时降雨强度和2 h降雨量道路积水临界指标。通过在2011年汛期(6—8月)10次道路积水中应用表明,该道路积水临界指标具有较好的参考价值,可为今后北京道路积水预报服务工作提供参考依据。     

Integrated Indicators-based Gradation of Cultivated Land Quality in Mountainous Region of Southwestern China

1 Introduction The gradation of cultivated land is to assess the suitability of cultivated land for agricultural production in terms of natural and economic prop-erties of land (Feng et al. 2004). It can be used to evaluate sustainability of land use and …     

Comparison of two techniques for applying disjunctive kriging: The Gaussian anamorphosis model versus the direct statistical inference of the bivariate distributions

Indicator cokriging is an alternative to disjunctive kriging for estimation of spatial distributions. One way to determine which of these techniques is more accurate for estimation of spatial distributions is to apply each to a particular type of data. A procedure is developed for evaluation of disjunctive kriging and indicator cokriging for such an application. Application of this procedure to earthquake ground motion data found disjunctive kriging to be at least as accurate as indicator cokriging for estimation of spatial distributions of peak horizontal acceleration. Indicator cokriging was superior for all other types of earthquake ground motion data.     

An evaluation of the Wellington Regional Genuine Progress Index

There is widespread discontent with the gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of progress for society. Alternative measures have been proposed, including the genuine progress indicator (GPI). This paper examines the changing institutional arrangements and attitudinal context in the recently developed Wellington region (New Zealand) GPI. We found an alignment between the GPI framework and the Local Government Act. Despite this fit, we identified challenges, including the need to revitalise public participation through deliberative techniques. It remains too early to judge whether the GPI initiative will launch a viable alternative to the GDP for the Wellington region.     

Knowledge gathering and communication on biodiversity: Developing the Norwegian Nature Index

The authors reflect on knowledge-generating and communication processes involved in the recently developed Norwegian Nature Index, particularly the communication process among experts involved in providing the required biodiversity knowledge. Eliciting a comprehensive overview of biodiversity is a complex process involving choices of approaches and methods in order to reach a common understanding of uncertainties and values as a basis for quantification. Part of the complexity is the establishment of dialogue between experts from research institutions with different research traditions and approaches. The authors discuss how the index was developed through communication processes, challenging involved experts to provide not only biodiversity data for the current situation, but also forecasts of future trends, assessments of uncertainty, and evaluations of the urgency of biodiversity loss and possibility of implementing policy and management measures. The Nature Index framework has potential for informing the biodiversity policy debate by involving stakeholders beyond the science-policy community and enhancing deliberations about biodiversity policy in a wider context of sustainable development. As a policy tool, the Nature Index may develop through a process of practical application, which in turn may have an impact on the selection of narratives, definition of management targets, and technical concepts such as reference states.     

河流健康评价的主评指标筛选

河流健康是近年来探讨水资源问题的一个热点,其评价指标体系正成为河流管理的目标。为了筛选出一些基本的、易于量化的主要评价指标来揭示河流健康基本状况和变化趋势,通过对1972～2010年约150篇相关文献、45个河流健康评价指标体系902项指标的整理和归纳,应用统计、层次和相关性分析法,确定各指标的被采用率,并同时综合考虑指标的重要性、普遍性、可量化性和易获得性,筛选出揭示河流生境物理、水环境、生物和水资源利用4类特征的主要指标。结果表明,有以下8个指标可作为河流健康的主评指标:河岸植被覆盖率、河流连通性、湿地保留率、径流量变化率、水质达标率、鱼类生物完整性指数、水资源利用率和流域天然植被覆盖率。     

GPS网中基线边和观测时段的关系分析

GPS网布设过程中,如果测区面积较大、网形复杂,则经常需要计算各点的设站次数与各点相关的基线数目以便进行GPS网的图形设计和精度估算。而基线边数、观测时段数与接收机数量密切相关,本文通过分析得出了三者之间的关系的一般公式。     

博茨瓦纳和中国含金刚石金伯利岩的地质特征及对寻找类似岩体的启示

金刚石及其寄主岩石是人类认识地球深部物质组成和性质、壳幔和核幔物质循环重要研究对象。本文总结了中国不同金刚石类型的分布,着重对比了博茨瓦纳和中国含金刚石金伯利岩的地质特征,取得如下认识:(1)博茨瓦纳含矿原生岩石仅为金伯利岩,而中国含矿岩石成分复杂,金伯利岩主要出露在华北克拉通,展布于郯庐、华北中央和华北北缘金伯利岩带,具有工业价值的蒙阴和瓦房店矿床分布于郯庐金伯利岩带中;钾镁煌斑岩主要出露在华南克拉通,重点分布在江南和华南北缘钾镁煌斑岩带中;(2)钙钛矿原位U-Pb年龄和Sr、Nd同位素显示,86～97 Ma奥拉帕金伯利岩群和456～470 Ma蒙阴和瓦房店金伯利岩均具有低87Sr/86Sr(0.703～0.705)和中等εNd(t)(-0.09～+5)特征,指示金伯利岩浆源自弱亏损地幔或初始地幔源区;(3)博茨瓦纳金伯利岩体绝大多数以岩筒产出,而中国以脉状为主岩筒次之;博茨瓦纳岩筒绝大部分为火山口相,中国均为根部相,岩筒地表面积普遍小于前者;(4)奥拉帕A/K1和朱瓦能金伯利岩体是世界上为数不多的主要产出榴辉岩捕虏体和E型金刚石的岩筒之一,而同位于奥拉帕岩群的莱特拉卡内、丹姆沙和卡罗韦岩体与我国郯庐带的金伯利岩体类似,均主要产出地幔橄榄岩捕虏体以及P型和E型金刚石;(5)寻找含矿金伯利岩重点注意以下几点:克拉通内部和周缘深大断裂带是重要的控岩构造;镁铝榴石、镁钛铁矿、铬透辉石、铬尖晶石和铬金红石等是寻找含金刚石金伯利岩重要的指示矿物;航磁等地球物理测量需与土壤取样找矿方法相结合才能取得更好效果;(6)郯庐金伯利岩带、江南钾镁煌斑岩带和塔里木地块是中国重要含矿岩石的找矿靶区,冲积型金刚石成矿潜力巨大。     

川西可尔因矿集区稀有金属矿床成矿规律与 找矿方向

为了解可尔因矿集区地质特征和成矿规律,查明矿集区地质找矿方向,对矿集区内成矿地质条件进行了系统分析和总结。研究表明稀有金属成矿主要与印支晚期—燕山早期的中-酸性花岗岩有关,岩浆侵位与成矿伟晶岩脉之间具有结晶分异演化关系。含矿岩浆不均一的结晶分异作用,导致了稀有金属矿化多分布在可尔因岩体东部和南部。在过铝质高挥发分的钙碱性-高钾钙碱性岩浆侵位和结晶分异演化过程中,在岩体与地层的接触带构造发育地段,形成了伟晶岩型稀有金属矿体,具有"岩浆岩-地层-构造"控制成矿的特征。据此提出了矿集区内的找矿标志和岩体与地层接触部位为今后找矿重点区域。