黔西南州冰雹多普勒雷达回波特征分析

冰雹是一种中小尺度的天气现象,多发生在地形复杂的山区和丘陵地带。黔西南是典型的冰雹频繁发生的多灾地带,每年发生大小冰雹天气过程几十次,尤其是个别县的某些乡镇几乎在每一次的重大天气过程中都要遭受到冰雹的袭击,显示出冰雹天气发生过程中具有明显的区域性和局地性。因此,用多普勒雷达的观测资料来分析冰雹的发生、发展和消亡过程,得出可能降雹的区域和地点,可以提高临近预报的准确性和及时性,降低冰雹灾害性天气所带来的经济损失,是非常有用的。     

双线偏振雷达测雨效果的对比分析

本文根据1993、1994年15次层状云和12次对流云降雨过程的地面降雨资料和C波段双线偏振雷达资料，对双线偏振雷达和普通雷达测量不同强度降雨的效果进行了评估和比较。结果表明，从相对误差来看，双线偏振雷达使普通雷达的小雨高估、大雨低估的测量误差趋势减弱，它对小到中雨的测量结果优于普通雷达。双线偏振雷达大雨高估的现象可能与强对流性降雨中冰相粒子的存在有关。     

水库诱发地震的地震动特征

利用新丰江、美国奥洛维尔和蒙蒂赛洛水库地震极近场地面运动资料，研究了水库诱发地震的地震动峰值加速度衰减。结果表明，水库地震的峰值加速度高，衰减快。利用国内水库地震资料研究了水库地震烈度。水库地震烈度与同级天然地震烈度相比，一般是烈度高，衰减慢。水库地震的地震动反应谱频率高，地震动持续时间短     

Rainfall estimation using raingages and radar — A Bayesian approach: 1. Derivation of estimators

Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.With a reduction in the number of radar rainfall data in constructing covariance matrices, computational requirements for the estimation procedures are not significantly greater than those for simple co-kriging. Given their generality, the estimation procedures constructed in this work are considered to be applicable in various estimation problems involving an undersampled main variable and a densely sampled auxiliary variable.     

自升式钻井平台桩靴踩脚印应对措施对比研究

基于现有规范与文献研究提出的减小桩靴踩脚印附加响应的相关措施,首先基于耦合欧拉—拉格朗日(CEL)定量分析了传统纺锤形桩靴与新型桩靴在不同工况条件下插桩时桩靴地基土体相互作用机制,明确了最不利桩靴踩脚印工况时的插桩偏心距与桩坑深度。基于该最不利工况条件,对比分析了新型六孔莲蓬形桩靴、试踩法与地基钻孔法3种桩靴踩脚印应对措施的适用性与有效性。结果表明,相较于传统纺锤形桩靴,采用六孔莲蓬形桩靴使桩靴倾斜角与桩腿偏移距分别降低了33.13%和48.26%,说明结构在位稳定性更高。此外,通过对比分析得出,采用最佳设置方式进行试踩与钻孔处理后再进行桩靴贯入时,桩靴受到的水平滑动力峰值与桩腿RP₁处弯矩峰值相较于未处理时分别降低了29.47%、29.17%、34.7%、37.7%。可见,3种应对措施均能有效降低桩靴踩脚印后产生的不利影响,提高桩靴结构的在位稳定性。以最终减小不利附加响应程度作为评定标准：地基钻孔法>新型六孔莲蓬形桩靴>试踩法,由于地基钻孔法与试踩法均需增设额外机械设备及施工工序,大幅提高了工程造价,因此,在实际工程中,需要根据实际情况恰当选择应对措施。研究成果可为实际工程中应对桩靴踩脚印工况响应提供一定参考与借鉴。     

黄东海大气边界层高度时空变化特征

根据2006-2007年大连、青岛和台州逐日高分辨率L波段二次测风雷达探空资料、地面观测资料以及再分析资料,采用干绝热法和位温梯度法分别计算了各个台站的边界层高度,继而分析了黄东海边界层高度多时间尺度变化规律和空间演变特征.结果表明:(1)用清晨探空资料计算每日边界层高度,干绝热法比位温梯度法更为合理可靠;(2)沿海台站边界层高度有显著季节变化,夏季最低,秋季最高,这有别于陆地边界层普遍存在的夏季高、秋冬季节低的季节变化;(3)通过小波分析,发现边界层高度有显著的2～4 d天气尺度振荡和10～20 d准双周振荡;(4)黄东海上空海洋大气边界层在时间尺度上同样存在着明显的春夏季节低、秋冬季节高的季节变化特征,大部分海区空间上呈现西北低、东南高的分布形态.     

基于模糊逻辑的大气云粒子相态反演和效果分析

为了探究8mm云雷达探测到的大气云粒子相态特征,根据Shupe总结得到云雷达探测参量:反射率因子、Doppler径向速度、线性退偏振比以及温度在不同相态水凝物对应的云雷达产品特征阈值,采用不对称T型的隶属函数,成员函数包括:反射率因子、线性退偏振比、径向速度以及垂直温度廓线,反演出的粒子相态包括:雪、冰晶、混合相态、液水、毛毛雨、雨等6种。通过联合分析中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室的偏振云雷达探测资料和GTS1型探空仪温度数据,结果表明;通过模糊逻辑法对云雷达探测的参量反演出的大气粒子相态结果与探空实时数据一致性较好,对现阶段常规天气预报参考、人工影响天气作业指挥以及效果评估来说具有较好指导性。     

高频地波雷达海杂波背景下的船只目标检测研究进展

针对海杂波对高频地波雷达目标检测的干扰问题,分目标处于海杂波谱区之内和之外两种情况综述了海杂波背景下的目标检测方法。对于海杂波内目标检测的难题,介绍了一种基于现场海态同步观测信息的检测新思路以及初步验证结果。对国内外相关研究进展的归纳总结和新思路的提出,为提出更加有效的海杂波干扰下的目标检测方法提供了重要的参考。     

双基雷达联合探测降水廓线的研究

利用1998年淮河流域能量和水循环试验(HUBEX)中的一次地面雷达与星载雷达(简称为双基雷达)联合探测雨强的资料,比较了现有的几种测雨雷达回波衰减订正方法.选取了一条比较有代表性的降水廓线,利用地基雷达数据对其进行衰减订正.结果表明,在雨区的中上部,星载雷达探测效果优于地基雷达;从"零度层亮带”往下至近地面,地基雷达探测效果优于星载雷达.     

Water level observations from unmanned aerial vehicles for improving estimates of surface water–groundwater interaction

Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only.