Quantifying and predicting the accuracy of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasts

On the basis that hydrological users need to know the forecast uncertainty at the time that the forecast is issued, we computed distributions of radar rainfall forecast uncertainty as a function of forecast lead time, basin size, and forecasted rainfall intensity using data from the US 3-D National Mosaic of radar data. We document how exceptional forecasts such as those of heavy rainfall are generally biased. Since forecast uncertainty is also weather dependent, we tried to find good predictors to help either reduce the forecast uncertainty or better define it. These predictors were based either on characteristics of the current precipitation field or on the performance of the nowcast in the immediate past. The value of some predictors, especially those based on the properties of large-scale rainfall patterns, was significant though modest, the predictors being generally more skillful at characterizing forecast uncertainty than at improving forecast accuracy.     

Sporadic meteor sources as observed by the Jicamarca high-power large-aperture VHF radar

We present, for the first time, the main sources of sporadic meteors as inferred from meteor-head echoes obtained by a high-power large-aperture radar (HPLAR). Such results have been obtained at the Jicamarca HPLAR (11.95° S, 76.87° W, 1° dip angle). Observations are based on close to 170,000 meteors detected in less than 90 h spread over 14 days, between November 2001 and February 2006. Meteors with solar orbits are observed to come from basically six previously known sources, i.e., North and South Apex, Helion, Anti-Helion, and North and South Toroidal, representing ∼91% of the observations. The other ∼9% represents meteors with observed velocities greater than the Sun's escape velocity at 1 AU, most of them of extra-solar origin. Results are given before and after removing the Earth's velocity and the sources are modeled with two-dimensional Gaussian distributions. In general, our results are in very good agreement with previously known sources reported by Jones and Brown [Jones, J., Brown, P.G., 1993. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 265, 524-532] using mainly specular meteor radar (SMR) data gathered over many years and different sites. However, we find slightly different locations and widths, that could be explained on the basis of different sensitivities of the two techniques and/or corrections needed to our results. For example, we find that the North and South Apex sources are well defined and composed each of them of two collocated Gaussian distributions, one almost isotropic with ∼10° width and the other very narrow in ecliptic longitude and wide in ecliptic latitude. This is the first time these narrow-width sources are reported. A careful quantitative analysis is needed to be able to compare the strengths of meteor sources as observed with different techniques. We also present speed and initial altitude distributions for selected sources. Using a simple angular sensitivity function of the combined Earth-atmosphere-radar instrument, and an altitude selection criteria, the resulting meteor sources are in better qualitative agreement with the results obtained with SMRs.     

现代地壳运动与地震监测预报研究的现状和发展趋势

综述了近年来美国、日本的GPS连续观测系统和INSAR空间测地技术在现代地壳运动和地震监测预报研究中的应用现状和发展趋势。     

抽水引起的含水层水平应变──地裂缝活动新机理

基于Darcy -Gersevanov广义渗流关系式 ,本文首先导出了单井定流量抽水引起的泰斯承压含水层水平运动和应变解析表达式 ,并据此提出了抽水诱发地裂缝活动的含水层水平应变新机理 ,其主要观点为 :受井栅的约束阻挡作用 ,抽水活动将在含水层内部形成近井径向挤压区和远井径向拉张区两个应变区域 ,随着抽水时间的增长 ,近井径向挤压区将逐渐向外扩展 ;当地裂缝及其下伏断层或裂隙位于抽水活动引起的径向拉张应变区域时 ,地裂缝将出现加速活动 ;反之 ,当地裂缝处于抽水活动引起的径向挤压应变区域时 ,地裂缝活动反而受到抑制。上述地裂缝活动机理通过大同机车工厂现场抽水实验得到了初步证实。     

Statistics on the vertical structure of rainshowers

A large sample of summertime data from the McGill Radar Weather Observatory was analyzed to determine the variation with altitude of the horizontal extent of individual rainshowers. For echoes defined by a reflectivity factor of 39 dBz (equivalent to a rainfall rate of about 10 mm/h) it was found that the mean area of the total population of echoes decreases linearly with altitude from approximately 20 km² at 2 km to 11 km² at 8 km. Subsets of the total population were investigated, consisting of only the echoes penetrating the altitudes of 6, 7, and 8 km. On the average these relatively tall echoes are much greater in horizontal extent than the total population. Whereas the sizes of the total population of echoes at any altitude are distributed approximately exponentially in terms of the square root of area, the sizes of the “survivors” that extend to high altitudes may be described by the gamma distribution with a mean value decreasing approximately linearly with height above 3 km and a dispersion of 0.55. Some characteristics are also reported for echoes defined by reflectivities of 31 dBz and 47 dBz. Estimates are given of the fraction of the total area in a horizontal plane that contains echoes in each of these categories.     

海南博螯沿岸地貌与人类活动的潜在影响

The Boao coastal system along the eastern coast of Hainan Island is a dynamic delta-tidal inlet-barrier formed during the late Holocene. The delta developed inside a shallow lagoon barred by a sandy barrier with a narrow, shallow tidal inlet opening. Two major distributary channels separated by small islands characterize the delta. The lagoon is silting up receiving and trapping sediments from both the river and, in minor measure during storms, through the tidal inlet opening and barrier washovers. The barrier at the tidal inlet is highly dynamic and changes its form, accreting (migrating spit) against the inlet during fair-weather conditions and being eroded during storms and river floods.The delta has almost completely filled the lagoon and major concerns exist on the effect that ongoing large development plans may have on the environment. These concerns include the effect on floods and rate of siltation once banks of the islands have been stabilized and floodwater and sediment load are impeded from spreading over the lowlands, and the effect of increasing pollutant loads from the new facilities on the ecosystems of the increasingly restricting lagoon water and on the seashores.     

新疆新源台固体潮潮汐因子特征浅析

采用Venedikov调和分析方法对新源台倾斜固体潮整点观测数据进行处理，得到倾斜固体潮鸩波潮汐因子变化曲线。分析其震兆异常特征，给出了新源台倾斜固体潮潮汐因子异常标准，结果发现异常与周围200km范围内的5级以上地震对应较好，具有较高的预报效能并通过了尺值评分检验。     

闽南-台湾浅滩渔场金色小沙丁鱼精巢的发育

金色小沙丁鱼精巢发育分为6期,精巢属于典型的叶状精巢,每一精小叶内有许多结缔组织纤维束将生殖细胞与精小叶壁联系起来。每一纤维束上连接的生殖细胞的发育都是同步的。闽南－台湾浅滩渔场的金色小沙丁鱼雄鱼1a至少生殖2次。     

The Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar Meteor Stream Catalogue

The Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar is a multi-frequency backscatter radar which has been in routine operation since 1999, with an orbit measurement capability since 2002. In total, CMOR has measured over 2 million orbits of meteoroids with masses greater than 10 μg, while recording more than 18 million meteor echoes in total. We have applied a two stage comparative technique for identifying meteor streams in this dataset by making use of clustering in radiants and velocities without employing orbital element comparisons directly. From the large dataset of single station echoes, combined radiant activity maps have been constructed by binning and then stacking each years data per degree of solar longitude. Using the single-station mapping technique described in Jones and Jones (Mon Not R Astron Soc 367:1050–1056, 2006) we have identified probable streams from these single station observations. Additionally, using individual radiant and velocity data from the multi-station velocity determination routines, we have utilized a wavelet search algorithm in radiant and velocity space to construct a list of probable streams. These two lists were then compared and only streams detected by both techniques, on multiple frequencies and in multiple years were assigned stream status. From this analysis we have identified 45 annual minor and major streams with high reliability.     

宿州西水源地地面沉降不同时序InSAR监测对比分析

PS-InSAR和SBAS-InSAR技术被广泛应用于地面沉降监测。由于技术原理的不同,两种技术的监测精度会受到地物散射特性的影响。目前缺少针对两种技术监测精度在复杂地物散射特征区的差异性的相关研究。本文针对宿州西水源地水位降落漏斗所引发的区域地面沉降,分别采用PS-InSAR和SBAS-InSAR技术,利用2017～2020年38景Sentinel-1A数据,对宿州西水源地110眼水井为中心的周边20×20 km²范围内的地面进行沉降监测,以宿州市区光纤监测孔SK01实测数据来校正时序InSAR监测结果并将两种技术得到的监测结果进行对比。选取15号、48号、98号水井附近以及研究区内城市郊区与城市中心区特征点进行时序分析并在建筑密集区域进行精度分析。结果表明：研究区内两种技术的监测结果具有一致性和相关性。但是,在快速沉降区域,SBAS-InSAR技术解算鲁棒性更强,监测到了水源地西侧沉降漏斗的中心区域。在城市郊区地物散射弱区,两种技术监测结果的数值偏差较大。在城市中心区地物散射强区PS-InSAR可以从更小尺度反映建筑结构与周围环境的沉降差异。相比之下,PS-InSAR更适合于研究城市中心区建筑结构与周围环境的沉降差异,SBAS-InSAR更适合于研究城市郊区分辨率较低的大规模变形趋势。