膨胀土与地形变

本文根据南京地震台短水准场地膨胀土研究的实际资料,指出了在膨胀土发育区进行地形变观测、地震地质和震害调查、烈度小区划等项工作时,必须考虑到膨胀土特性这个因素,以避免失误。     

西影井水位特异动态的成因初析

西影井水位自1974－1978年三次井溢后，1989年9月以来又出现了一次大起大落的特异变化。很多学者都十分关注这罕见的现象，并认为是区域应力增强所致的。经过多年的调查与分析，笔者认为是大量抽取地下水引起的地面沉降与地裂并由此导致地下岩层的层间错动与井管变形破坏的结果。     

主应变比异常理论在青海祁连地震预报中的应用

本文利用主应变比异常理论分析了祁连建站以来地应变观测资料，认为肃南──祁连断裂段上及附近发生的地震是由于构造应力场的变化，在引张应力状态下，正断层或走滑断层易于活动而导致的。     

新疆钻孔应变异常特征及其与地震三要素关系研究

将新疆高精度钻孔应变仪１０年来观测到的应变异常划分为趋势异常、短期异常、临震异常三类，并对这三种异常的特征进行了分析总结．认为，地震三要素与应变异常参量关系密切，震级与异常量级、震中距有着确定性关系。     

均匀半空间条件下水平细柱体不均匀介质影响场的定量研究

采用边界元数值计算法解决地电阻率（ρ＿ｓ）法中不均匀介质细柱体对ρ＿Ｓ测值影响的定量计算问题，给出细柱体自身参数变化，（电阻率、长度）、柱体与观测装置相对位置的变化（方向和位置）以及观测装置尺度改变时影响场的定量计算结果和影响特征。计算结果可供条件相当的台站使用。     

Statistics on the vertical structure of rainshowers

A large sample of summertime data from the McGill Radar Weather Observatory was analyzed to determine the variation with altitude of the horizontal extent of individual rainshowers. For echoes defined by a reflectivity factor of 39 dBz (equivalent to a rainfall rate of about 10 mm/h) it was found that the mean area of the total population of echoes decreases linearly with altitude from approximately 20 km² at 2 km to 11 km² at 8 km. Subsets of the total population were investigated, consisting of only the echoes penetrating the altitudes of 6, 7, and 8 km. On the average these relatively tall echoes are much greater in horizontal extent than the total population. Whereas the sizes of the total population of echoes at any altitude are distributed approximately exponentially in terms of the square root of area, the sizes of the “survivors” that extend to high altitudes may be described by the gamma distribution with a mean value decreasing approximately linearly with height above 3 km and a dispersion of 0.55. Some characteristics are also reported for echoes defined by reflectivities of 31 dBz and 47 dBz. Estimates are given of the fraction of the total area in a horizontal plane that contains echoes in each of these categories.     

Statistics on the sizes and internal structures of rainshowers

A large sample of radar reflectivity data from essentially a full summer of operation was analyzed to determine the horizontal extents and internal structure of rain areas observed at altitude levels from 2 to 10 km. Results are given on the size distributions of individual cells or patches defined by reflectivity thresholds approximately 4 dBz apart, on the dependence of mean size on altitude and reflectivity threshold, and on the interior structure of the patches as characterized by the number and sizes of higher-threshold patches contained in each echo. In a more detailed analysis of internal structure, the data were restricted to convective echoes in which certain prescribed reflectivities, ranging from about 30 to 50 dBz, were exceeded. It was found that the dependence of mean quantities, such as patch area, on reflectivity and altitude could be approximately described by simple functions, but that the scatter of observations about the mean was usually large.     

桂林暴雨天气的多普勒雷达径向速度分析与应用

利用桂林新一带天气雷达径向速度产品资料对2004年发生在桂林的强暴雨过程及其暴雨个例的径向速度平面位置显示产品（PPI）特征的多样性进行分析发现，利用径向速度变化可判断中尺度对流的发展，可对桂林暴雨提前做出预报。     

新疆新源台固体潮潮汐因子特征浅析

采用Venedikov调和分析方法对新源台倾斜固体潮整点观测数据进行处理，得到倾斜固体潮鸩波潮汐因子变化曲线。分析其震兆异常特征，给出了新源台倾斜固体潮潮汐因子异常标准，结果发现异常与周围200km范围内的5级以上地震对应较好，具有较高的预报效能并通过了尺值评分检验。     

Verifying warnings for point precipitation

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.