On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

Estimation of seismic hazard parameters in TERESA test areas

A general overview of some of the problems involved in earthquake catalogue handling is given as part of the works carried out into the ESC/SC8-TERESA project related with the seismic hazard assessment in two selected test areas: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). Furthermore, the necessary input data to be used in the calculation of seismic hazard has been obtained, including earthquake source zones and their seismic hazard parameters.The importance is pointed out of detailed analysis of seismic catalogues, mainly in relation to the use of aftershock information, the historical records of the region, and the possible temporal and spatial variation of seismicity, which could have an important influence on short-term hazard assessment.     

河南省禹州市地质灾害与防治预案

禹州市是河南省地质灾害大市。通过对该市地质灾害的表现形式、形成条件、诱发因素及其危险性的初步评估,提出了地质灾害的防治建议和预案,制定了近、中、远三期具体治理规划和达到的目标,并举出实例来说明建立预警系统和制定防治预案的可行性。     

Application of the Landsat-5TM Image Data in the Feasibility Study of Mudflow Hazards in the Southern Taihang Mountains

The Taihang Mountains area is an area in North China where serious mudflow hazards take place frequently. The hazards often obstrust traffic and make it difficult to carry out conventional ground investigations of the mudflow hazards. This paper introduces the feasibility study of mudflow hazards by using Landsat-5TM data. The study has achieved a great success through adopting both the faint spectral enhancement technique for mudflow fans (or other depositional areas) and comprehensive study of the environmental background of pregnant mudflows. Thus, remote sensing as a fast, convenient, low-cost and effective technical method can be used to recognise the situation of mudflow hazards so that effective rescue can be provided.     

冀中坳陷北部河西务断层结构及新近纪以来的活动特征分析

河西务断层是渤海湾盆地冀中坳陷北部地区一条重要的控盆断裂,新近纪-第四纪时期渤海湾盆地整体进入热沉降 阶段后,该断层仍然存在构造活动,2018年在河北永清县发生的地震就是由该断层的活动所引发。文章利用地震数据对河 西务断层的结构特征和新近纪以来的活动特征进行分析,结果表明,河西务断层新近纪以来具有右旋走滑的张扭特征,主 断层在剖面上具有负花状结构,平面上具有分段性,北段和南段兼具右旋走滑和拉张的特征,中段则主要表现为右旋走滑 特征。运动学模型表明,这种分段差异性主要由各段主断层走向和块体走滑运动方向的夹角所决定。     

中国西北某煤化工区土壤中砷的人体健康风险及其安全阈值

本研究对中国西北某大型煤化工区的土壤样品进行采集。通过密闭消解后应用ICP CCT MS法对土壤样品中砷（As）含量进行测定,选取吸入土壤颗粒、皮肤接触、经口摄入3种主要的暴露途径,对煤化工区3个不同煤气化单元土壤中As的人体健康风险进行评价。结果表明,煤化工区土壤中As的单物质综合致癌风险为可接受水平的6~9倍,As的危害商则在可接受水平范围之内。煤化工区土壤中As的人体健康风险以经口摄入为主体暴露途径,该途径下致癌风险的贡献率占全部致癌风险的68.64%。在对各暴露途径致癌风险控制值计算的基础上选择致癌风险贡献率最高、控制值最低的经口摄入途径的控制值1.59 mg/kg作为该煤化工区土壤中As的参考安全阈值。结合中国煤化工行业发展特点、区域土壤中As的背景值水平、地区气候和地质特点等,考虑不同国家和地区As的人体健康风险可接受水平差异和可行性,才能综合确定特定煤化工区域土壤环境中As的安全阈值。     

Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards of Alluvial Fans

A strategy is presented for the assessment ofdebris-flow hazards on alluvial fans on the basis ofa case study carried out on the southern foot of astratovolcano named Mt. Yatsugatake. Transformation ofcommercial forests into a golf course was planned ata corner of the Kikkakezawa fan. The case studyinvolves an assessment of hazards due to debris flowsof different magnitudes and their recurrenceintervals. The environmental conditions for therecurrence of these debris flows are discussed as wellas the extent of the areas affected by them. In orderto generalize the case study, concepts of hazardpotential, hazard and risk for debris flows onalluvial fans are established. Accordingly, the hazardpotential is the possible hazards at any location onan alluvial fan in an indefinitely long time period,which can be assessed on the basis of hydrological andother geoscientific investigations. Hazards associatedwith a particular land use can be evaluated on thebasis of the hazard potential considering the locationand the time period associated with the land use. Riskcan be further assessed considering the life styles inthis land and the social conditions.     

Assessment of Geomagnetic Hazard to Power Systems in Canada

This paper presents an assessment ofgeomagnetic hazard on the five largest power systemsin Canada. From east to west these are: Nova ScotiaPower, Hydro-Quebec, Ontario Hydro West System, Manitoba Hydro, and the northern B.C. Hydro system. The aim of this study was to determine howfrequently, and where in a system, largegeomagnetically induced currents (GIC) could beexpected. To do this, an analysis was made of thespectral characteristics of the magnetic fieldvariations that cause GIC, and a review was made ofpublished magnetotelluric soundings in order todetermine conductivity models for different parts ofthe country. The magnetic field spectra and theconductivity information were then used to determinethe electric fields produced during geomagneticdisturbances. A relation was determined betweenelectric field magnitudes and the magnetic activityindex, Kp so that statistics for Kp could be used todetermine the occurrence rates of large electricfields. Power system models were used to determinethe GIC produced by the `1-year' and `10-year'electric fields experienced by each power system.     

甘肃省泥石流发育特征、成因分析及其危害

甘肃省是我国泥石流地质灾害最为严重的4大省份之一。据统计,全省发育有泥石流沟6 260条,这些泥石流沟大部分集中在东部地区,河西地区较少。泥石流强烈发育的陇南、甘南山区,地势高差多在1 000 m以上,山坡坡度≥30°。区内地质构造复杂,地震活动频繁,广泛分布黄土、泥岩、千枚岩、页岩等软弱易滑岩土体,为泥石流发育提供了必要的地形条件和岩土条件,降雨和地震及人类活动是诱发因素。长期以来,频繁发生的泥石流地质灾害已给甘肃人民的生命财产和工农业生产建设带来了严重威胁和危害,造成约3 715人死亡,直接经济损失几十亿。其中,2010年8月8日,舟曲发生的特大泥石流地质灾害震惊世界,泥石流地质灾害已严重困扰和和制约着甘肃省的国民经济发展和广大人民群众的正常生活。因此,应通过科学规划人类活动,采取必要的工程措施制约泥石流地质灾害的发生,减轻泥石流地质灾害造成的损失。     

滇西北德钦地区金沙江奔子栏古堰塞湖的发现及意义

在川滇交界的云南德钦奔子栏一带的金沙江河谷两岸,发现了发育于第四级阶地之下的湖相纹层状粘土层,其下为边坡碎屑流堆积,表明该湖相层为滑坡碎屑流堵江所形成的。采用U系法测年,获得金沙江右岸湖相粘土层上部和下部的年龄分别为55.4ka±3.5kaBP和82.1ka±6.6kaBP,左岸湖相粘土层为122.0ka±12.4kaBP,表明该古湖发育于晚更新世早中期。孢粉分析结果显示,该湖相粘土沉积期间的古植被为以松为主的常绿针叶林,气候温和较湿。该古堰塞湖的发现不仅对于研究金沙江的河流发育史具有指导意义,而且对了解现代大江大河灾难性地质灾害的形成演化具有重要的参考价值。