湖州市地质灾害防治探讨

文章通过对湖州市近几年地质灾害发生的情况介绍 ,指出了地质灾害发生的原因 ,指出不仅是自然原因 ,更多的是人为因素 ,提出了地质灾害防治的建议和措施     

Recent Changes Occurred in the Terminus of the Debris-covered Bilafond Glacier in the Karakoram Himalayas Using Remotely Sensed Images and Digital Elevation Models (1978-2011)

Recent changes occurred in terminus of the debris-covered Bilafond Glacier in the Karakoram Range in the Himalayas, Northern Pakistan was investigated in this research. Landsat MSS, TM and ETM＋ images were used for this study. Digital elevation models derived from ASTER GDEM and SRTM were also utilized. Visible, infrared and thermal infrared channels were utilized in order to get accurate glacier change maps. Three methods were tried to map this debris-covered glacier in this research. The glacier has been mapped successfully and the changes in the glacier terminus from 1978 to 2011 have been calculated. Manual, semi-automatic and thermal methods were found to give similar results. It was found that the glacier has undergone serious ablation during this period despite of the fact that many of the larger glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Karakoram mountain regions in the Upper Indus Basin were reported to be expanding. The terminus has been moved back about 600 meters during this period and there was an abrupt change in the glacier terminus during 1990-2002. We propose that debris thickness is not the only factor that influences the glacier ablation but the altitude of the debris-covered glacier as well. Many glaciers in the Karakoram region reported to be expanding were having higher altitudes compared to the study area.     

Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

中国冰川温度研究40年回顾与建议

Many temperature measurements have been made on 29 glaciers in China since 1959. The regional thermal features of glaciers are now revealed. It is distinguished that there are three categories of temperature distribution in China, i.e., cold, temperate and polythermal. Temperate glaciers are located in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The heat conduction in the surface layer and the heat transfer within a glacier can be quantitatively described. Two-dimensional temperature distributions are gained for the Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains and for the Chongce Ice Cap in the West Kunlun Mountains. Geothermal flux is derived from measurements down to or closed to the bottom. The Tibetan Plateau is an area with high geothermal flux. The author suggests to measure more ice temperature by using the boreholes for extracting ice core, however, there is no need to repeatedly measure the temperature within the near-surface layer.     

Mapping soil effects in Barcelona, Spain, through an integrated GIS environment

Maps of soil response for the city of Barcelona have been for the first time obtained through a GIS environment that integrates the different procedures for soil response estimation within a single tool. These maps constitute part of the results of the local scale application of the computer prototype for seismic risk assessment that was developed within the European project SERGISAI. The approach involves: collection of available data relevant to local geology, implementation of geotechnical models, estimation of the reference seismic action, generation of synthetic strong-motion time histories, and soil response calculation through 1D analytical method. The resulting predictive hazard maps of predominant period and amplification ratio delineate potential variations on ground shaking and constitute a first approximation towards an integrated approach to Barcelona urban area microzonation. Analysis of the observed differences, when comparing the analytical results in this study with previous empirical studies, provides a useful feedback to establish site dependence suitability and reliability of methods, to extract information on at-present inaccessible parameters needed for the characterisation of physical properties of soil, and also to delimit those areas where further in-depth survey research is needed for a proper seismic hazard assessment.     

福建省滨海火电厂地质灾害问题及风险控制探讨

滨海火力发电厂工程主要包括厂区建筑、码头、管道、取排水、填海和贮灰场等工程。其主要面临着福建省海岸带构造运动、断裂及地震活动、港湾淤积、海底滑坡、软土地基、海底活动地貌、基岩不均匀风化以及人类工程活动等主要的灾害性地质因素。通过对这些因素潜在的致灾特点分析，提出了滨海火电厂地质灾害风险控制应包括选址阶段地质灾害风险回避、设计施工阶段地质灾害风险处理及运行阶段地质灾害风险监控等3方面。地质灾害风险评估是滨海火电厂地质灾害风险控制的首要任务。针对滨海电厂工程的特点，评估内容应着重于地质灾害危险性评估及易损性评估。选址阶段地质灾害风险回避主要是对构造不稳定的回避。地质灾害风险处理主要是电厂工程的基础处理及管道抗冲刷处理。电厂运行阶段地质灾害风险监控主要是对建筑物基础稳定性及海域冲淤变化的监控。     

Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment of Extreme Water Levels Based on 60-Year Observation Data in Xiamen,China

Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.     

基于格网的洪水灾害危险性评价分析——以巴基斯坦为例

洪水灾害已成为给当今人类带来严重损失的自然灾害之一,因此,灾害风险评价是区域经济持续发展的前提与条件。本文从致灾因子和孕灾环境两方面进行分析,综合考虑降水(累计降雨量和最大降雨量)、河流(河网密度)、地形(高程值和坡度值)、土地利用和植被(NDVI)共5种相关因子,以1km格网数据为基础,运用AHP(层次分析法)对巴基斯坦洪水灾害进行了危险性评价。结果表明:巴基斯坦洪水灾害危险性受降雨和地形的影响较大,其危险程度东南部大于西北部,并由东南部向西北部逐渐递减。     

Spatial variability of liquefaction potential in regional mapping using CPT and SPT data

Cone penetration test (CPT) and standard penetration test (SPT) are widely used for the site specific evaluation of liquefaction potential and are getting increased use in the regional mapping of liquefaction hazard. This paper compares CPT and SPT-based liquefaction potential characterizations of regional geologic units using the liquefaction potential index (LPI) across the East Bay of the San Francisco Bay, California, USA and examines the statistical and spatial variability of LPI across and within geologic units. Overall, CPT-based LPI characterizations result in higher hazard than those derived from the SPT. This bias may result from either mis-classifications of soil type in the CPT or a bias in the CPT simplified procedure for liquefaction potential. Regional mapping based on cumulative distribution of LPI values show different results depending on which dataset is used. For both SPT and CPT-based characterizations, the geologic units in the area have broad LPI distributions that overlap between units and are not distinct from the population as a whole. Regional liquefaction classifications should therefore give a distribution, rather than a single hazard rating that does not provide for variability within the area. The CPT-based LPI values have a higher degree of spatial correlation and a lower variance over a greater distance than those estimated from SPTs. As a result, geostatistical interpolation can provide a detailed map of LPI when densely sampled CPT data are available. The statistical distribution of LPI within specific geologic units and interpolated maps of LPI can be used to understand the spatial variability of liquefaction potential.     

Landslide Research at the British Geological Survey:Capture,Storage and Interpretation on a National and Site-Specific Scale

Abstract: Landslide research at the British Geological Survey (BGS) is carried out through a number of activities, including surveying, database development and real-time monitoring of landslides. Landslide mapping across the UK has been carried out since BGS started geological mapping in 1835. Today, BGS geologists use a combination of remote sensing and ground-based investigations to survey landslides. The development of waterproof tablet computers (BGS·SIGMAmobile), with inbuilt GPS and GIS for field data capture provides an accurate and rapid mapping methodology for field surveys. Regional and national mapping of landslides is carried out in conjunction with site-specific monitoring, using terrestrial LiDAR and differential GPS technologies, which BGS has successfully developed for this application. In addition to surface monitoring, BGS is currently developing geophysical ground-imaging systems for landslide monitoring, which provide real-time information on subsurface changes prior to failure events. BGS’s mapping and monitoring activities directly feed into the BGS National Landslide Database, the most extensive source of information on landslides in Great Britain. It currently holds over 14?000 records of landslide events. By combining BGS’s corporate datasets with expert knowledge, BGS has developed a landslide hazard assessment tool, GeoSure, which provides information on the relative landslide hazard susceptibility at national scale.