耕地需求量预测的加权模糊-马尔可夫链模型

以耕地利用动态度为度量，利用模糊有序聚类方法将耕地需求量划分为不同的模糊状态区间，利用模糊集理论构建马尔可夫链状态转移概率矩阵，以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重改进传统的马尔可夫链预测模型，用改进后的模型对土地利用规划中耕地需求量进行预测。实验结果表明，改进后的方法较传统的预测方法更具科学性和实用性。     

Subfilter-Scale Fluxes over a Surface Roughness Transition. Part II: A priori Study of Large-Eddy Simulation Models

The ability of subfilter-scale (SFS) models to reproduce the statistical properties of SFS stresses and energy transfers over heterogeneous surface roughness is key to improving the accuracy of large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this study, several SFS models are evaluated a priori using experimental data acquired downwind of a rough-to-smooth transition in a wind tunnel. The SFS models studied include the eddy-viscosity, similarity, non-linear and a mixed model consisting of a combination of the eddy-viscosity and non-linear models. The dynamic eddy-viscosity model is also evaluated. The experimental data consist of vertical and horizontal planes of high-spatial-resolution velocity fields measured using particle image velocimetry. These velocity fields are spatially filtered and used to calculate SFS stresses and SFS transfer rates of resolved kinetic energy. Coefficients for each SFS model are calculated by matching the measured and modelled SFS energy transfer rates. For the eddy-viscosity model, the Smagorinsky coefficient is also evaluated using a dynamic procedure. The model coefficients are found to be scale dependent when the filter scales are larger than the vertical measurement height and fall into the production subrange of the turbulence where the flow scales are anisotropic. Near the surface, the Smagorinsky coefficient is also found to decrease with distance downwind from the transition, in response to the increase in mean shear as the flow adjusts to the smooth surface. In a priori tests, the ability of each model to reproduce statistical properties of the SFS stress is assessed. While the eddy-viscosity model has low spatial correlation with the measured stress, it predicts mean stresses with the same accuracy as the other models. However, the deficiency of the eddy-viscosity model is apparent in the underestimation of the standard deviation of the SFS stresses and the inability to predict transfers of kinetic energy from the subfilter scales to the resolved scales. Overall, the mixed model is found to have the best performance.     

TBB资料揭示的亚澳季风区季节转换及亚洲夏季风建立的特征

发展了一个用于台风路径预报的初始场人造台风方案。该方案除包含对称台风环流外,也考虑了非对称风的作用。使用双向移动套网格模式作的试验预报结果表明,初始场中引入人造台风后能明显提高径预报的水平。     

Coordinated Exploration Model and its Application to Coal and Coal-associated Deposits in Coal Basins of China

China is a top world producer of coal resources with numerous coal-rich basins country-wide that also contain coalbed methane(CBM), an unconventional natural gas resource. Recent exploration of coal and CBM resources has also led to the discovery of rare, precious, and scattered metal minerals, including sandstone-type U and Ga–Ge–Li. High-grade and industrial-value deposits have been discovered in the Ordos, Junggar, and other basins across China during exploration for coal resources. Application of coordinated exploration theories and techniques in multiple energy and coal-associated ore deposits, such as coal and unconventional natural gas in coal, achieves efficient and practical exploration of natural resources. Based on the systematic study of accumulation and occurrence of coal and coal-associated mineral resources in coal basins, the basic idea of coordinated exploration for coal and coal-associated deposits is proposed, and multi-targets and multi-methods based on a coordinated exploration model of coal-associated deposits is developed. Coordinated exploration expands the main exploration objective from coal seams to coal-associated series, extending the exploration target from targeting coal only to coal-associated deposits. Entrance times for exploration are decreased to realize coordinated exploration for coal, unconventional natural gas and syngenetic/associated mineral resources in coal by implementing a 'one-time approach' ―one time in and out of a coal seam to minimize disturbance and time needed for extraction. According to the differences of geological background in China's coal basins, four coordinated exploration model types, including co-exploration of coal and coal-associated unconventional natural gas, coal and solid minerals, coal and metal minerals, and coal with water resources are established. Other models discussed include a multi-target coordinated exploration model for the combination of coal, coal-associated gas, solid minerals, and metal minerals accordingly. The exploration techniques of coal and coal-associated resources include regional geological investigation and research and synthetic application of other techniques including seismic surveys, drilling, logging, and geochemical exploration. Particularly, applying the 'multi-purpose drill hole' or reworking coalfield drill holes into parameter wells, adding sample testing and logging wells, determining gas-bearing layers by logging and gas content measurement, jointly measuring multiple logging parameters, sampling, and testing of coal-strata help in the exploration and evaluation of coal resources, coal-associated unconventional natural gas resources, and coal-associated element minerals. Accordingly, a system of integrated Space–Air–Ground exploration techniques for coordinated exploration of coal and coal-associated minerals is established. This includes high-resolution, hyperspectral remote-sensing technique, high-precision geophysical exploration and fast, precise drilling, testing of experimental samples, as well as coordinated exploration and determination methods of multi-target factors, multi-exploration means, multi-parameter configuration and optimization, big data fusions and interpretation techniques. In recent years, the application of this integrated system has brought significant breakthroughs in coal exploration in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other provinces, discovering several large, ten-billionton coalfields, such as the Eastern Junggar and Tuha basins, and also in exploration and development of CBM from lowrank coals in Fukang, Xinjiang, discovery the Daying U Deposit in Inner Mongolia, the Junggar Ultralarge Ga Deposit, Lincang, Yunnan, and the Wulantuga, Inner Mongolia, Ge-bearing coal deposits, and the Pingshuo Ultralarge Li–Ge Deposit.     

Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂陷高潮与裂-坳转换:来自塔里木西北缘阿克苏地区碎屑锆石的制约

阿克苏地区位于塔里木地块西北缘,是研究Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂解过程的关键地区。在阿克苏地区裂谷序列中,发育有不整合面。通过对阿克苏地区巧恩布拉克组、尤尔美那克组和苏盖特布拉克组碎屑锆石的LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄测定,对Rodinia超大陆裂谷期不整合面的形成时间、不整合面上下地层的物源变化以及不整合面的构造意义进行了讨论。碎屑锆石测年结果显示:尤尔美那克组于708 Ma后开始沉积,苏盖特布拉克组于577 Ma后开始沉积,被剥蚀的阿克苏群为尤尔美那克组和苏盖特布拉克组提供了局部物源。结合前人资料分析表明:(1)巧恩布拉克组与尤尔美那克组之间角度不整合面形成于717～708 Ma之间,苏盖特布拉克组与下伏地层间不整合面形成于580～577 Ma之间;(2)阿克苏地区724～717 Ma之间发生了一次幕式裂陷作用,这次幕式裂陷作用可能代表了Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂陷期的高潮;(3)苏盖特布拉克组与下伏地层间不整合面是Rodinia超大陆裂谷裂-坳转换界面,这个界面时限为580～577 Ma;(4)"雪球地球"事件显著地促进了不整合面形成时的剥蚀作用,巧恩布拉克组与尤尔美那克组之...     

多源探测数据揭示的南海东北部三维地壳结构特征

南海东北部洋陆转换带及其邻区复杂的地壳结构一直是南海岩石圈结构研究和深水油气勘探的热点.本研究基于覆盖南海东北部的119条地球物理探测数据(包括二维地震和OBS/OBH/ESP等剖面),采用已有OBS数据拟合的时-深关系进行转换,提取主要沉积地层界面和Moho面深度信息;参考区域深钻资料,利用离散平滑与克里金插值法对研究区的数据稀疏区进行插值,在此基础上建立了南海东北部三维地壳结构模型.结果显示:南海东北部的地壳拉伸减薄具有空间差异性.平面上,可以分为地壳轻微、中等和强烈减薄区(拉伸系数分别小于1.5、1.5～2.5之间和大于2.5);Moho面深度向SW向变浅,洋陆转换带宽度由东部的50km变窄至西部的20km;北部陆架区发育一系列NE走向的断陷,推测主要受到滨海断裂带的控制,南部陆坡深水区部分凹陷发育巨厚沉积层,可能是由于深水区大型正断层活动和南海扩张过程中陆壳向海掀斜的共同作用.垂向上,Moho面深度与沉积层底界表现为镜像关系,上地壳拉伸系数基本都大于下地壳;且东沙隆起及其邻区的下地壳下部发育高速层,其厚度以近东西向为轴向南北方向变薄.研究揭示的南海东北部三维地壳结构,特别是Mo...     

On the role of spatial resolution on snow estimates using a process‐based snow model across a range of climatology and elevation

Hydrological processes in mountainous settings depend on snow distribution, whose prediction accuracy is a function of model spatial scale. Although model accuracy is expected to improve with finer spatial resolution, an increase in resolution comes with modelling costs related to increased computational time and greater input data and parameter information. This computational and data collection expense is still a limiting factor for many large watersheds. Thus, this work's main objective is to question which physical processes lead to loss in model accuracy with regard to input spatial resolution under different climatic conditions and elevation ranges. To address this objective, a spatially distributed snow model, iSnobal, was run with inputs distributed at 50‐m—our benchmark for comparison—and 100‐m resolutions and with aggregated (averaged from the fine to the large resolution) inputs from the 50‐m model to 100‐, 250‐, 500‐, and 750‐m resolution for wet, average, and dry years over the Upper Boise River Basin (6,963 km²), which spans four elevation bands: rain dominated, rain–snow transition, and snow dominated below treeline and above treeline. Residuals, defined as differences between values quantified with high resolution (>50 m) models minus the benchmark model (50 m), of simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) were generally slight in the aggregated scenarios. This was due to transferring the effects of topography on meteorological variables from the 50‐m model to the coarser scales through aggregation. Residuals in SCA and SWE in the distributed 100‐m simulation were greater than those of the aggregated 750 m. Topographic features such as slope and aspect were simplified, and their gradient was reduced due to coarsening the topography from the 50‐ to 100‐m resolution. Therefore, solar radiation was overestimated, and snow drifting was modified and caused substantial SCA and SWE underestimation in the distributed 100‐m model relative to the 50‐m model. Large residuals were observed in the wet year and at the highest elevation band when and where snow mass was large. These results support that model accuracy is substantially reduced with model scales coarser than 50 m.     

Evolution of a Coronal Loop System

The temporal variation of a loop system that appears to be changing rapidly is examined. The analyzed data were obtained on 15 May 1999, with the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) during an observing campaign and consist of observations in the Fe ix/Fe x 171?Å and Fe xii 195?Å passbands taken at a cadence of ～10 min. The special interest in this loop system is that it looks like one expanding loop; however, careful examination reveals that the loop consists of several strands and that new loop strands become visible successively at higher altitudes and lower loop strands fade out during the one hour of our observations. These strands have different widths, densities, and temperatures and are most probably consisting of, at least, a few unresolved thinner threads. Several geometric and physical parameters are derived for two of the strands and an effort is made to determine their 3D structure based on the extrapolation of the magnetic field lines. Electron density estimates allow us to derive radiative and conductive cooling times and to conclude that these loop strands are cooling by radiation.     

Grain-growth kinetics in wadsleyite: Effects of chemical environment

Grain-growth kinetics in wadsleyite was investigated using a multianvil high-pressure apparatus. Fine-grained wadsleyite aggregates were synthesized by isostatic hot-pressing and were subsequently annealed under high pressure and temperature in a controlled chemical environment. Wadsleyite samples show normal grain-growth characterized by a log-normal grain-size distribution following the relation, where n is a constant, L the grain-size at time t, L₀ the grain-size at time t = 0 and k is a rate constant that depends on temperature T and chemical environments (fO₂: oxygen fugacity in Pa, C_OH: water content in H/10⁶Si) as:

     

全球气候变暖中南北半球海冰变化的差异

应用海冰面积资料,分析在全球气候变暖下,南北半球海冰季节和年际变化的差异,结果表明:冬季南半球海冰面积为北半球的1.13倍,而夏季仅为北半球的2/5,南半球海冰的季节变化比北半球更为显著,其季节振幅为北半球的1.6倍.1979--2006年,北半球海冰总面积呈显著减少趋势,夏秋季最快,特别在1990年代中后期以来,减少尤为迅速;夏秋季,整个区域海冰为均一的减少趋势,北冰洋靠近北太平洋的近海变化最为迅速,冬春季,主要发生在北太平洋海域.南半球海冰自1980年代初以来有所增多,四季整个区域海冰并未呈均一的减少趋势,而是有一显著减少中心,位于南极半岛附近,两个增多中心,分别位于罗斯海外围和西南印度洋一带.随夏一秋一冬一春的季节转换,3个中心区域位置存在东移和返回的过程.