Long-term variation of solar UVB (290–330 nm) observed at the earth's surface

During solar cycle 21 (1976–86), the primary solar irradiance at 300 nm was steady during 1980–82 and thereafter decreased until 1986 by only 2–3%. The stratospheric ozone in middle latitudes had a QBO of 3–4% in this interval but the long-term ozone trend was less than 3% per decade, which could result in a UVB increase of only 5–6% per decade. Thus, the combined effect of changes in primary solar irradiance and ozone changes could be an increase of 5–6% in UVB, observed at ground during 1977–81 and a steady level during 1981–86. During 1976–86, the average cloudiness changed by less than 5% indicating UVB changes of 5% or less on this count. The aerosol level was almost constant during 1976–82 and increased abruptly in 1982 due to the E1 Chichon eruption and decayed slowly unitl 1986. Thus, due to aerosols only, the UVB was expected to be constant during 1976–82, to decrease sharply in 1982 and to recoup slowly thereafter.Measurements of clear-sky solar UVB at ground made at Jungfraujoch (Swiss Alps, 47°N, 8°E) during 1981–89 and at Rockville, USA (39°N, 77°W) were not comparable between themselves and did not follow the above expected patterns. Neither did the all-day R-B meter UVB measurements at Philadelphia, USA (40°N, 75°W) and Minneapolis, USA (45°N, 93°W). We suspect that some of these measurements are erroneous. This needs further detailed scrutiny.     

Deconvolution of squared velocity waveform as applied to the study of a noncoherent short-period radiator in the earthquake source

We consider an inverse problem of determination of short-period (high-frequency) radiator in an extended earthquake source. This radiator is assumed to be noncoherent (i.e., random), it can be described by its power flux or brightness (which depends on time and location over the extended source). To decide about this radiator we try to use temporal intensity function (TIF) of a seismic waveform at a given receiver point. It is defined as (time-varying) mean elastic wave energy flux through unit area. We suggest estimating it empirically from the velocity seismogram by its squaring and smoothing. We refer to this function as observed TIF. We believe that one can represent TIF produced by an extended radiator and recorded at some receiver point in the earth as convolution of the two components: (1) ideal intensity function (ITIF) which would be recorded in the ideal nonscattering earth from the same radiator; and (2) intensity function which would be recorded in the real earth from unit point instant radiator (intensity Green's function, IGF). This representation enables us to attempt to estimate an ITIF of a large earthquake by inverse filtering or deconvolution of the observed TIF of this event, using the observed TIF of a small event (actually, fore-or aftershock) as the empirical IGF. Therefore, the effect of scattering is stripped off. Examples of the application of this procedure to real data are given. We also show that if one can determine far-field ITIF for enough rays, one can extract from them the information on space-time structure of the radiator (that is, of brightness function). We apply this theoretical approach to short-periodP-wave records of the 1978 Miyagi-oki earthquake (M=7.6). Spatial and temporal centroids of a short-period radiator are estimated.     

海南岛的海涂土壤及其开发利用

根据调查资料和采样分析,作者划分海南岛海涂土壤类型,并就机械组成、养分含量、盐渍化程度、粘土矿物组成等方面阐述海涂土壤特征。根据海涂土壤的性质及其生态环境特征进行开发利用,宜以海水养殖和晒盐为主,其中海水养殖可分为8个区。     

太阳spike辐射中的MHD振荡

我们在1981年5月16日所观测到的典型的微波大爆发的spike辐射中,发现存有～1.4—1.6秒的准周期振荡特征。本文依据MHD波理论,对观测进行了分析讨论,本文认为在日冕圈内外传播着的快磁声波(“腊肠”模)调制了源区的磁场以及电子束的投射角分布,从而影响了ECM不稳定性的增长率,因此而产生了spike辐射中的准周期振荡。另外,本文还对一些有关的物理参数作了定量的估算。     

Two Necessary Conditions for the Glacial-Interglacial Cycles in the Quaternary

Milankovitch Theory shows that glacial-interglacial cycles in the Quaternary are related to the variation of solar insolation forcing linked to the earth's astronomical parameters.However,the summer insolation at northern high latitudes,usually considered as the main external forcing for the ice age as Milankovitch pointed out,is marked by the 19- and 23-ka precession periodicities,which is not consistent with the glacial-interglacial cycles.On the other hand,recent studies indicate that the annual mean ...     

Coupling SEBAL with a new radiation module and MODIS products for better estimation of evapotranspiration

ABSTRACT

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important ecohydrological process especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, a new radiation module based on MODIS data has been coupled with the Surface Energy Balance Algorithms for Land (SEBAL) to better estimate ET. The accuracies of the coupled model for estimating available energy and sensible heat (H) were improved significantly compared with the outputs from the original SEBAL which was based on empirical equations. The coupled SEBAL modelled instantaneous λET agreed much better with observations in the arid land of Central Asia than the original SEBAL, with a bias of ?2.86 W m^-2, root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.75 W m^-2, and normalized RMSE (NRMSE) of 0.13. The accuracy was blurred when scaling ET to a daily or monthly scale, mainly due to the uncertainties associated with temporal upscaling methods that were applied. Sensitivity analysis, which was conducted using numerical variance-based techniques, indicated that the estimated ET is sensitive to the available energy, suggesting the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of net radiation when applying the coupled SEBAL to estimate ET. This study provides a simple and reliable way to utilize MODIS products and contains sensitivity analysis for helping to correctly interpret the outputs, which are both important for large-scale ET estimation.     

Long-range forecasts of River Po discharges based on predictable solar activity and a fuzzy neural network model / Prévisions à long terme des débits du Fleuve Pô basées sur l’activité solaire prévisible et sur un modèle de réseau de neurones flou

Abstract

Abstract Is it possible to make seasonal and interannual forecasts of hydrological variables if one cannot predict next week’s rainfall? Contrary to common view, some scientists support the hypothesis that variations in mean global temperature and precipitation are controlled more by external forcing (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) than by increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Temperature and precipitation are connected with special phases of the 11-year sunspot cycle, which coincide with significant accumulation of energetic solar eruptions. Because of the possibility of identifying years with many solar eruptions, the attractive prospect emerges of the long-term hydrological forecasting based on cycles of solar activity. Starting from this assumption, an expert system was built based on a fuzzy neural network model for seasonal and interannual forecasting of the Po River discharge. It was found that indices of solar activity and of global circulation are sufficient to yield useful forecasts of hydrological variables.     

Convection in a rotating,laterally heated annulus the wave number transitions

Abstract

The radial temperature differences at which the transitions from one wave number to the next occur have been measured with either increasing or decreasing positive radial temperature gradients, at five different rotation rates, with the fluid being always in thermal equilibrium and being in contact with an upper rigid lid. Hysteresis has been observed in all wave number transitions, and also in the transition to upper symmetry. There are, nevertheless, regions in the stability diagram where the wave number is unique. There is an excluded region where the wave number four cannot be obtained through quasi-steady procedure. There is a reversal of the sense of the hysteresis of the transitions. At low ΔT, a wave number transition with increasing radial temperature difference occurs at a higher ΔT, than the same transition with decreasing temperature difference. On the other hand, at large values of ΔT, a wave number transition with increasing radial temperature difference occurs at a lower ΔT, than the same transition with decreasing temperature difference. Wave number transitions with increasing ΔT, occur spontaneously out of amplitude oscillations. Wave number transitions with decreasing ΔT, occur via slow wave splitting in association with phase modulations of the waves. The uniqueness of the wave number in the unique areas of the stability diagram has been confirmed by sudden start experiments.     

Particle decay in the early Universe: predictions for 21 cm

The influence of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and decaying dark matter particles on the emission and absorption characteristics of neutral hydrogen in 21 cm at redshifts   z = 10–50  is considered. In the presence of UHECRs, 21 cm can be seen in absorption with the brightness temperature   T _b=−(5–10) mK  in the range   z = 10–30  . Decaying particles can stimulate a 21-cm signal in emission with   T _b∼ 50–60 mK  at   z = 50  and   T _b≃ 10 mK  at   z ∼ 20  . Characteristics of the fluctuations of the brightness temperature, in particular its power spectrum, are also calculated. The maps of the power spectrum of the brightness temperature on the plane wavenumber redshift are shown to be sensitive to the parameters of UHECRs and decaying dark matter. Observational possibilities to detect manifestations of UHECRs and/or decaying particles in 21 cm with the future radio telescopes (LOFAR, 21CMA and SKA), and to distinguish contributions from them, are briefly discussed.     

Can the early X-ray afterglow of gamma-ray bursts be explained by a contribution from the reverse shock?

We propose to explain the recent observations of gamma-ray burst early X-ray afterglows with SWIFT by the dissipation of energy in the reverse shock that crosses the ejecta as it is decelerated by the burst environment. We compute the evolution of the dissipated power and discuss the possibility that a fraction of it can be radiated in the X-ray range. We show that this reverse shock contribution behaves in a way very similar to the observed X-ray afterglows if the following two conditions are satisfied. (i) The Lorentz factor of the material which is ejected during the late stages of source activity decreases to small values  Γ < 10  and (ii) a large part of the shock-dissipated energy is transferred to a small fraction  (ζ≲ 10⁻²)  of the electron population. We also discuss how our results may help to solve some puzzling problems raised by multiwavelength early afterglow observations such as the presence of chromatic breaks.