The Dependence of the Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Flux Rope on Its Orientation,with Possible Application to Geomagnetic Storm Prediction

Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B ₀ (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R ₀ (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B ₀ and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly.     

Comparison between Windowed FFT and Hilbert-Huang Transform for Analyzing Time Series with Poissonian Fluctuations: A Case Study

Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) is a novel data analysis technique for nonlinear and non-stationary data. We present a time-frequency analysis of both simulated light curves and an X-ray burst from the X-ray burster 4U 1702-429 with both the HHT and the Windowed Fast Fourier Transform (WFFT) methods. Our results show that the HHT method has failed in all cases for light curves with Poissonian fluctuations which are typical for all photon counting instruments used in astronomy, whereas the WFFT method can sensitively detect the periodic signals in the presence of Poissonian fluctuations; the only drawback of the WFFT method is that it cannot detect sharp frequency variations accurately.     

Non-Radial Pulsations in Components of Symbiotic Stars

Photometric observations of symbiotic stars in the blue and in the red spectral regions make it possible to reveal non-radial oscillations both of the cool and of the hot components. Light variations of red giants in the symbiotic systems CI Cyg and AG Peg show several periods in the 10–80^d range, interpreted as p-mode pulsations. These modes are excited by a bright spot produced by radiation flux from the hot component. The spot moves on the red giant’s photosphere at a velocity close to the sound speed. During the active phase of the symbiotic star CH Cyg, at least 25 frequencies of oscillations in the 150–6000 s range of periods were found in the light of the white dwarf. Their features correspond to non-radial g-modes. In the frame of 2D gas dynamical non-adiabatic models, the interaction between gas flows and the accretion disk leads to formation of a system of shock waves propagating towards the compact object, which is one of possible mechanisms to excite non-radial pulsations of white dwarfs in symbiotic systems.     

Geo-effectiveness of solar wind extremes

Examples of extreme events of solar wind and their effect on geomagnetic conditions are discussed here. It is found that there are two regimes of high speed solar wind streams with a threshold of ∼ 850 km s^-1. Geomagnetic activity enhancement rate (GAER) is defined as an average increase in Ap value per unit average increase in the peak solar wind velocity (Vp) during the stream. GAER was found to be different in the two regimes of high speed streams with +ve and-ve IMF. GAER is 0.73 and 0.53 for solar wind streams with +ve and -ve IMF respectively for the extremely high speed streams (< 850 km s^-1). This indicates that streams above the threshold speed with +ve IMF are 1.4 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with -ve IMF. However, the high speed streams below the threshold with -ve IMF are 1.1 times more effective in enhancing geomagnetic activity than those with +ve IMF. The violent solar activity period (October–November 2003) of cycle 23 presents a very special case during which many severe and strong effects were seen in the environment of the Earth and other planets; however, the z-component of IMF (Bz) is mostly positive during this period. The most severe geomagnetic storm of this cycle occurred when Bz was positive.     

Geoeffective Analysis of CMEs Under Current Sheet Magnetic Coordinates

Using 100 CME–ICME events during 1997.01–2002.11, based on the eruptive source locations of CMEs and solar magnetic field observations at the photosphere, a current sheet magnetic coordinate (CMC) system is established in order to statistically study the characteristics of the CME–ICME events and the corresponding geomagnetic storm intensity. The transit times of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth are also investigated, by taking into account of the angle between the CME eruption normal (defined as the vector from the Sun center to the CME eruption source) and the Sun-Earth line. Our preliminary conclusions are: 1. The distribution of the CME sources in our CMC system is obviously different from that in the ordinary heliographic coordinate system. The sources of CMEs are mainly centralized near the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and the number of events decreases with the increment of the angular distance from the CME source to the HCS on the solar surface; 2. A large portion of the total events belong to the same–side events (referring to the CME source located on the same side of the HCS as the Earth), while only a small portion belong to the opposite–side events (the CME source located on the opposite side of the HCS as the Earth). 3. The intense geomagnetic storms are usually induced by the same–side events, while the opposite side events are commonly associated with relatively weak geomagnetic storms; 4. The angle between the CME normal and the Sun–Earth line is used to estimate the transit time of the CME in order to reflect the influence of propagation characteristic of the CME along the Sun–Earth direction. With our new prediction method in context of the CMC coordinate, the averaged absolute error for these 100 events is 10.33 hours and the resulting relative error is not larger than 30% for 91% of all the events.     

Hydro simulations of the ICM: the effect of energy feedback

Current models and observations of variability in HgMn stars disagree.We present here the models that argue for pulsating HgMn stars with properties similar to those of SlowlyPulsating B Stars. The lack of observed variable HgMn stars suggeststhat some physical process is missing from the models. Somepossibilities are discussed.     

On the incidence of magnetic fields in slowly pulsating B, β Cephei and B-type emission-line stars

We have obtained 40 high-resolution circular spectropolarimetric measurements of 12 slowly pulsating B (SPB) stars, eight β Cephei stars and two Be stars with the Echelle Spectropolarimetric Device for the Observation of Stars at CFHT (ESPaDOnS) and Narval spectropolarimeters. The aim of these observations is to evaluate recent claims of a high incidence of magnetic field detections in stars of these types obtained using low-resolution spectropolarimetry by Hubrig et al. The precision achieved is generally comparable to or superior to that obtained by Hubrig et al., although our new observations are distinguished by their resolution of metallic and He line profiles, and their consequent sensitivity to magnetic fields of zero net longitudinal component. In the SPB stars, we confirm the detection of magnetic field in one star (16 Peg), but find no evidence of the presence of fields in the remaining 11. In the β Cep stars, we detect a field in  ξ¹  CMa, but not in any of the remaining seven stars. Finally, neither of the two B-type emission-line stars shows any evidence of magnetic field. Based on our results, we conclude that fields are not common in SPB, β Cep and B-type emission-line stars, consistent with the general rarity of fields in the broader population of main sequence B-type stars. A relatively small, systematic underestimation of the error bars associated with the UV Focal Reducer and Low Dispersion Spectrograph for the Very Large Telescope (FORS1) longitudinal field measurements of Hubrig et al. could in large part explain the discrepancy between their results and those presented here.     

应用神经网络建立加速度峰值衰减规律

在假定了加速度峰值衰减规律的形式后，本采用人工神经网络拟合实际加速度峰值观测资料来求取方程中的待定系数。为加速神经网络的训练，本设计了基于ＢＰ学习算法的目标分段网络训练法。     

1989年3月13日武昌地区太阳耀斑事件效应的观测结果

1989年3月13日太阳耀斑事件产生了丰富的地球物理效应。耀斑激波和耀斑粒子流引起强烈地磁暴。在武昌地区,磁暴急始发生于地方时3月13日09h30min,其初相期持续10小时（3月13日09h30min-19h20min）,主相期持续13小时（3月13日19h20min-3月14日08h20min）,至3月16日05h20min始恢复平静（图1）。     

磁暴期间极光椭圆与极盖区电离层效应比较研究--F区负暴

联合利用EISCAT和E-Svalbard非相干散射雷达数据,研究l997年5月强磁暴期间向阳侧极盖与极光椭圆区电离层F区负暴.发现在磁暴主相和恢复相初期,极光椭圆和极盖区电离层都在大约l90km高度出现类似F1的峰,F2主峰完全消失,F区电子密度大幅度下降.但离子温度的变化在两个区域很不相同,在极光椭圆区大幅度升高,而在极盖区没有显著变化,反映出引起F区负暴的主要机制在两个区域不尽相同.强对流电场引起大气焦耳加热与离子增温而使O+离子消失的化学反应速率增大所导致的电离损失,对极光椭圆区负暴起主要作用;而输运过程,特别是持续长达数小时的沿场上行离子流,对极盖区负暴起重要作用.磁暴主相期间,当EISCAT雷达位于等离子体对流涡旋转换区下方时,在无焦耳加热与离子摩擦增温的情况下,观测到由顶部电离层O+离子沿场高速外流引起的F区电子密度耗空.