新疆天山地区地下流体地震前兆研究的现状与发展前景

系统地介绍了新疆天山重点震监视区下流体观测网，及其地质构造环境和地下水的成因类型，总结了２０年来地下流体地震前兆探索与地震前兆探索与地震预报研究的基本经验和成果。     

地下流体前兆模糊识别

在地震的孕育、发生到发展的过程中，可能会出现多项地下流体观测量不同程度的前兆异常变化，这些异常变化是复杂多样、模糊不清的。引入模糊识别法对一定区域和一定时间段的地下流体观测数据进行了分析和处理，表明模糊识别法可较好地识别和分辨出地下流体前兆的地震异常。     

巴基斯坦卡拉奇─海得拉巴区域地震危险性预测

本文讨论了巴基斯坦的地震构造，潜在震源和历史与现代地震活动性，并在此基础上使用确定性和概率性两种方法计算了各发震断层５０年内最大可能的地震在卡拉奇和海得拉巴两城市将引起的地面峰值加速度以及５０年内超越概率为１４％的等加速度区划图。     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

Defining the geochemical baseline: a case of Hong Kong soils

A geochemical baseline provides the means to distinguish between the pedogenic origin and the anthropogenic origin of the trace element in the environmental compartments. We collected 271 soil samples representative of different parent rocks and soil types from the whole territory of Hong Kong and analyzed the composition of clay mineralogy and the contents of 15 chemical elements (Fe, Cd, As, etc.) for these samples. The baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The result indicated that Fe was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among the five potential reference elements (Fe, Al, Sc, Ti, and Mn), followed by Sc and Ti. A poor correlation was found between Sc, Ti, and Cu. The predicted baseline was much lower than the A-value of the Dutch List used usually in screening the polluted soil of Hong Kong, implying that the extent of heavy metal pollution might have been underestimated with respect to local lands. We also applied the cluster analysis to distinguish the geochemical associations of the trace elements due to its importance to the baseline. Approximately three major associations including the Fe–Mn-oxides related, Al oxides or Al-bearing-clay-mineralogy related and sulfide- related associations were observed from the dendrogram.     

生态屏障约束下的综合功能区划研究——以云南省昭通市为例(英文)

Ecological shelter zones reconstruction is an ecosystem restoration and conserva-tion project aimed to the ecological safety of nations,regions and basins. Reconstruction of ecological shelter zones of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River became one of the most important tasks of Western Development strategy. This article,taking Zhaotong as an exam-ple,studies the functional regionalization of ecological shelter zones. The study supplies a case for functional regionalization of small and medium regions whose main tasks are envi-ronment reservation. With the guidance of theories of functional regionalization,and based on the analysis of Zhaotong's natural,ecological and socioeconomic factors,the paper suggests five principles for factors selection. These principles include: (1) reversing order evaluation; (2) selecting main factors; (3) keeping the integrality of administrative regions of towns; and (4) making the products acceptable by local government. To analyze spatial status of selected factors,LUCC data in 2002,1:50,000 relief maps and town-unit socioeconomic statistical data in 2004 are used. RS and GIS tools are also applied to melt traditional and modern geo-graphical methods. This would be useful to functional regionalization research in mountain-ous areas. As a conclusion,the leading functional regions of ecological conservation or economic development are suggested,respectively. Zhaotong city is divided into two-level functional regions. The first-level includes three leading functional regions and they will lead developing direction of sub-regions. The second-level includes eight sub-regions,which are policy implemented regions,and will supply guidance to Zhaotong's ecological shelter zones reconstruction.     

Crust and Upper Mantle Structure in the Caribbean Region by Group Velocity Tomography and Regionalization

An overview of the crust and upper mantle structure of Central America and the Caribbean region is presented as a result of the processing of more than 200 seismograms recorded by digital broadband stations from SSSN and GSN seismic networks. Group velocity dispersion curves are obtained in the period range from 10s to 40s by FTAN analysis of the fundamental mode of the Rayleigh waves; the error of these measurements varies from 0.06 and 0.09 km/s. From the dispersion curve, seven tomographic maps at different periods and with average spatial resolution of 500 km are obtained. Using the logical combinatorial classification techniques, eight main groups of dispersion curves are determined from the tomographic maps and eleven main regions, each one characterized by one kind of dispersion curves, are identified. The average dispersion curves obtained for each region are extended to 150s by adding data from a larger-scale tomographic study (Vdovin et al., 1999) and inverted using a nonlinear procedure. A set of models of the S-wave velocity vs. depth in the crust and upper mantle is found as a result of the inversion process. In six regions we identify a typically oceanic crust and upper mantle structure, while in the other two the models are consistent with the presence of a continental structure. Two regions, located over the major geological zones of the accretionary crust of the Caribbean region, are characterized by a peculiar crust and upper mantle structure, indicating the presence of lithospheric roots reaching, at least, about 200 km of depth.     

盐城地区大棚反季节蔬菜生产的温度条件及其应用

通过平行对比观测试验，分析得出了我市塑料大棚不同层次的增温效应，以及晴雨天气转换时大棚内的各项温度的变化情况，并根据大彬的几种主要蔬菜适宜生长的气象指标，对我市沿海地区大棚的反季节蔬菜生产作出各类蔬菜棚内的适宜生长期，为利用大棚进行反季节蔬菜生产提供了科学依据。     

中国经济区研究述评

回顾改革开放以来我国几个具有代表性的综合经济区划方案 ,总结 2 0年来中国经济区研究的发展趋势 ,并探讨经济区的范围、边界 ,以及经济区研究的方向和意义等问题