一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究 ——以京津冀“7·21”暴雨事件为例

文章综合考虑中国区域范围内降雨时空分布特征以及地理地貌等特征,将全国降雨区划分为4大类,在此基础上,得出不同降雨类区暴雨致灾因子的强度等级评定方法;同时,研究确定了与暴雨灾害密切相关的地形高程、高程标准差、河网密度、土壤类型等环境脆弱性影响要素,并对各类要素分别进行了分级评定;将各类环境脆弱性影响要素结合暴雨致灾因子要素,运用加权求和方法建立了暴雨灾害综合风险评估模型;并结合GIS技术,将城市、农村人口分布情况、用地等数据叠加到风险分布格局中,最终分析得出不同风险等级下影响的城市和农村人口数量、土地面积等内容。该评估模型相较于以往其他暴雨风险评估模型,其适用范围更广,可以适用于全国范围内的任意区域暴雨灾害风险评估;实时评估业务能力更强,将该模型结合降雨实况资料或预报资料可以对全国任意区域降雨灾害综合风险进行事后、跟踪评估或预评估;评估对象更有针对性,结合GIS技术,可以针对得出的风险分布结果分别给出不同风险等级范围内的承灾体受影响的定量评估结果。     

Application of topo-edaphic factors and remotely sensed vegetation indices to enhance biomass estimation in a heterogeneous landscape in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania

Estimating tropical biomass is critical for establishment of conservation inventories and landscape monitoring. However, monitoring biomass in a complex and dynamic environment using traditional methods is challenging. Recently, biomass estimates based on remotely sensed data and ecological variables have shown great potential. The present study explored the utility of remotely sensed data and topo-edaphic factors to improve biomass estimation in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. Twenty-nine vegetation indices were calculated from RapidEye data, while topo-edaphic factors were taken from field measurements. Results showed that using topo-edaphic variables or vegetation indices, biomass could be predicted with an R² of 0.4. A combination of topo-edaphic variables and vegetation indices improved the prediction accuracy to an R² of 0.6. Results further showed a decrease in biomass estimates from 1162 ton ha^?1 in 1980 to 285.38 ton ha^?1 in 2012. This study demonstrates the value of combining remotely sensed data with topo-edaphic variables in biomass estimation.     

中国北方三流域河流—沙漠过渡带地表沉积物化学元素空间差异分析

通过对克里雅河、毛布拉格孔兑以及西拉木伦河三流域的河流-沙漠过渡带地表沉积物的7种常量氧化物以及15种微量元素进行因子分析,结果显示:三个流域之间或不同河段因子分析提取的公因子均可以概括为较稳定的铁锰矿物、较不稳定的长石类和方解石（白云石）类等硅酸盐矿物以及稳定的稀土元素和重矿物等类别;河流间因子分析结果表明,自西向东三个流域沿河地表沉积物的化学元素富集与迁移程度呈递增趋势,化学风化程度增强;流域内因子分析结果表明,自上游至下游,样点化学组成均愈变复杂,不同河段或不同河岸沉积物化学元素空间分布规律与其物源、地貌格局以及水分条件等因素有关;自河床至阶地,不同地貌单元地表沉积物化学元素呈相异的递变规律,这与在距离河道远近不同,物源、动力因素的分配不同有关。     

Use of mineral/solution equilibrium calculations to assess the potential for carnotite precipitation from groundwater in the Texas Panhandle,USA

This study investigated the potential for the uranium mineral carnotite (K₂(UO₂)₂(VO₄)₂·3H₂O) to precipitate from evaporating groundwater in the Texas Panhandle region of the United States. The evolution of groundwater chemistry during evaporation was modeled with the USGS geochemical code PHREEQC using water-quality data from 100 groundwater wells downloaded from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database. While most modeled groundwater compositions precipitated calcite upon evaporation, not all groundwater became saturated with respect to carnotite with the system open to CO₂. Thus, the formation of calcite is not a necessary condition for carnotite to form. Rather, the determining factor in achieving carnotite saturation was the evolution of groundwater chemistry during evaporation following calcite precipitation. Modeling in this study showed that if the initial major-ion groundwater composition was dominated by calcium-magnesium-sulfate (>70 precent Ca + Mg and >50 percent SO₄ + Cl) or calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate (>70 percent Ca + Mg and <70 percent HCO₃ + CO₃) and following the precipitation of calcite, the concentration of calcium was greater than the carbonate alkalinity (2mCa⁺² > mHCO₃⁻ + 2mCO₃⁻²) carnotite saturation was achieved. If, however, the initial major-ion groundwater composition is sodium-bicarbonate (varying amounts of Na, 40–100 percent Na), calcium-sodium-sulfate, or calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate composition (>70 percent HCO₃ + CO₃) and following the precipitation of calcite, the concentration of calcium was less than the carbonate alkalinity (2mCa⁺² < mHCO₃^- + 2mCO₃⁻²) carnotite saturation was not achieved. In systems open to CO_2, carnotite saturation occurred in most samples in evaporation amounts ranging from 95 percent to 99 percent with the partial pressure of CO₂ ranging from 10^−3.5 to 10^−2.5 atm. Carnotite saturation occurred in a few samples in evaporation amounts ranging from 98 percent to 99 percent with the partial pressure of CO₂ equal to 10^−2.0 atm. Carnotite saturation did not occur in any groundwater with the system closed to CO₂.     

荆江三口分流变化及三峡水库蓄水影响

长江中游荆江的水沙通过三口洪道分流入洞庭湖,三口分流是荆江-洞庭湖关系调整的驱动因子,为揭示其变化特征及三峡工程运用的影响,基于大量的原观数据,系统研究了近60年三口分流比的变化过程,提出其显著调整特征及诱发因素,引入径流还原计算方法,量化了三峡水库不同运用方式对三口分流量的影响幅度。结果表明:①特大洪水及重大人类活动等诱发因素作用下,三口分流比出现4~5年持续性减小的趋势调整期,之后进入分流比稳定恢复的平衡调整期;②2003-2014年,三峡水库汛前枯水补偿调度使得三口分流量年均增加8.000亿m3,汛后蓄水使得三口分流量年均减小29.00亿m3,对三口分流综合影响量为年均减少21.00亿m3,占同期三口年均分流量的4.29%。     

Review of Earth Critical Zone Research

Since the Earth Critical Zone put forward by National Research Council of America in 2001, it has got a lot of attention and some significant progresses have been made. This paper summarized those Earth Critical Zone projects and related research plans organized and implemented by the United States of America, Germany, Australia, France, China and the European Union, as well as main scientific problems and future development direction in the study of Earth Critical Zone. According to research status of China, the four main research contents should be strengthened including structure, formation and evolution mechanism of Earth Critical Zone, the coulpling interaction mechanism between migration and transformation of material and multi-processes, sevice function and evolution features of Earth Critical Zone and its support and effect on sustainable development, model simulation of process and system of Earth Critical Zone. In addition, our country should actively conduct cooperation and communication with the advanced countries, and enhance our involvement in international key research plans.     

江西瑞昌戏子洞铜多金属矿地质特征与控矿因素

戏子洞铜多金属矿主要产于燕山期花岗闪长斑岩及其接触带附近,赋存于花岗闪长斑岩、矽卡岩内,具有典型岩浆热液矿床成因特点。在详细分析戏子洞铜多金属矿地质特征的基础上,认为矿体主要受花岗闪长斑岩、奥陶系与志留系之间岩性差异界面及北东向层滑断层等因素综合控制。     

滨里海盆地Z油田油藏类型与成藏因素研究

Z油田主要含油层系包括白垩系-中侏罗统低幅度背斜构造油藏、中三叠统盐檐断鼻油藏和上三叠统岩性圈闭油藏3种油藏类型。通过对紧密围绕盐有关的构造和有效盐窗这两个影响Z油田油气成藏的关键因素的研究认为成藏模式为"盐下生成、盐窗沟通、盐边盐间断层输导、高点聚集、后期保存"。Z油田油源充足,盐窗大而有效,多种有效的输导体系,圈闭类型多而好,埋深适中,储盖层发育且配置良好,侧向遮挡条件具备且后期保存条件良好,可作为今后勘探首选目标区。     

遥感技术在内蒙古东乌珠穆沁旗萨麦地区的找矿应用

本文以内蒙古东乌珠穆沁旗萨麦地区1:5万巴彦塔拉等4幅区域地质调查范围为研究区,以ETM+影像数据为信息源,以波谱理论为基础,从遥感图像中提取蚀变信息继而进行遥感找矿实践。针对区内铁染、羟基蚀变类型使用主成分分析等方法,将研究区划分为10个异常区,结合区域构造特征情况,对异常区域开展了1:1万路线调查,综合判定后,选择了4个找矿靶区进行了化探剖面探测并进行了成果分析,结果显示遥感蚀变信息与野外调查和化探异常吻合较好。     

南沙群岛海域长腹剑水蚤(Oithona spp.)的种类组成、数量分布及其与环境因子的关系

中小型桡足类是海洋食物网中重要的中间环节,在碳循环里细菌碳和藻类碳向高营养级转化的过程中扮演重要角色。本文通过分析2013年3—4月、6—7月、9—10月和11—12月南沙群岛海域(111°30′E—112°30′E,4°30′N—11°30′N)的生态环境调查数据,对长腹剑水蚤属(Oithona)的种类组成、数量分布及其与环境因子的关系进行了研究。结果表明:(1)南沙群岛海域共出现长腹剑水蚤15种(包括1个未定种),其中线长腹水蚤(Oithona linearis)、粗长腹剑水蚤(O.robusta)和长刺长腹剑水蚤(O.longispina)为南沙群岛海域首次记录,长腹剑水蚤属种类组成沿水深变化的现象较为明显,该属虽然在南沙群岛海域广泛分布,但单种的出现频率较低,其种类出现的季节性较强;(2)南沙群岛海域的长腹剑水蚤可以划分为常见广布组群Ⅰ和低频组群Ⅱ;(3)长腹剑水蚤年均栖息密度为30ind./m3,季节变化呈单峰型,秋季最高、冬季最低,高数量区主要出现在受南沙西部沿岸流和东部沿岸流影响的近岸海域;(4)在0—750m水深范围内,长腹剑水蚤数量沿水深梯度的垂直变化明显,呈现由浅至深数量明显减少的趋势,长腹剑水蚤主要集中分布在0—75m的水层中,75—500m数量急剧降低至最低后,在500—750m基本维持不变;(5)GAM分析表明,纬度、海水温度、盐度和叶绿素a浓度对长腹剑水蚤数量均有影响,以纬度的影响最为显著,其中长腹剑水蚤属最适温度为28.6—29.2℃,最适盐度为32.6—33.2,最适叶绿素a浓度为5—10μg/L;(6)长腹剑水蚤属更适栖息于低温和低盐,且受沿岸流影响的环境中。因此,其数量分布的季节变化与季风驱动的沿岸流势力强弱密切相关。