浙江登陆台风的灰色灾变预测研究

根据热带气旋在浙江登陆的基本资料, 利用灰色灾变预测的原理和方法, 对台风登陆浙江的年份进行了预测研究。结果表明, 浙江未来第一、第二和第三个强台风登陆年将分别出现在2001、2004 和2008 年     

采用随机模拟技术与常规水文方法相结合的洪水过程模拟法

随着江河上兴建的水利工程日渐增多,流域的防洪规划和防洪调度工作,正在从以个别工程为主要研究对象转向以全流域复杂库群为研究对象。常规水文方法很难反映这种复杂流域的水文特性,在工程实践中其局限性越来越突出。随着计算机运算能力的提高,径流的随机模拟技术逐步得到研究和应用。本文分析了常规水文方法与纯数学随机模拟技术的不足,并提出了一种新的、简单易行的模拟全流域洪水的模拟方法,该方法已应用于太子河流域的库群联合防洪调度中,并取得了较好的成果。     

Response of First-Order Sequence to the Galactic Year Cycle in the Phanerozoic:An Important Progress and Topic

The sequence which corresponds to the first-order sea-level cycle is called the first-order sequence, and the first-order sequence may have an internal relationship with the galactic year cycle, in other words, the galactic year cycle may control the first-order sequence macroscopically. The superevents in the Phanerozoic, such as the concentration change of atmospheric gas carbon dioxide, the alternation of "calcite sea" and "aragonite sea" in the hydrosphere, and the reversal of magnetic poles, are cyclical. They have obvious correlation in genesis, and they are likely to be controlled by the complicated genetic relationship between galactic annual cycles and various superevents. Over the years, researches have shown that when the solar system moves around the galactic center, the acceleration of gravity (value of G) changes accordingly, and the solar system expands (or shrinks). The Earth, a member of the solar system, forms a change in potential energy and absorbs (or releases) heat. At the same time, the gravitational differentiation changes as a result of the value of G change, which leads to the expansion of the mantle and the contraction of the core; when the energy accumulates to a certain degree, the superplume will be activated, which will affect the plate pattern on the earth. In recent years, the periodic changes of these superevents in Phanerozoic have attracted extensive attention and discussion. Paying attention to these wise understandings and existing problems will provide important thinking process and research clues for in-depth research.     

基于GIS的西峰区沟道雨洪资源可利用量研究

利用庆阳市西峰区的DEM、Quickbird影像资料对西峰区沟道特征进行沟道特征分析,并分析了沟道不同降水频率下雨洪特征。以司家沟为典型沟道,采取典型年法和单次暴雨分析法将不同降水频率典型年中大于20mm的单次降水与基准暴雨量相对应,计算出典型年的雨洪总量(可收集利用量)和单次降水的洪峰流量,并进一步分析了不同降水保证率的各区域雨洪资源量。结果表明,西峰区各沟道雨洪资源量的总体趋势为高保证率雨洪资源量少、低保证率雨洪资源量大,但是由于洪水频率跟降雨频率不同步,在干旱年降水频率低时,洪水频率有可能较大,因此干旱年份对雨洪资源的利用尤为重要。     

气候变化对典型气象年数据的影响及能耗评估——以中国北方大城市天津为例

本文以中国北方城市天津为例,采用Sandia及Danish两种方法生成典型气象年（TMY）数据,并借助TRNSYS软件模拟得到3个时段（1961-1990年、1971-2000年和1981-2010年）典型办公建筑的逐时负荷,评估气候变化对典型气象年数据及模拟负荷的影响。结果表明：Sandia和Danish生成典型气象年的方法在天津均有较好的适用性,Sandia方法采用6个气象要素生成的典型气象年数据代表性满足要求。受气候变化影响,典型气象年数据变化较大,采暖期（11月-翌年3月）较制冷期（6-9月）的变化更明显;从30年均值差异看,1981-2010年相对于1961-1990年,建筑供热负荷减少5.2%,而制冷负荷增加1.6%。因此,在使用典型气象年数据进行建筑设计能耗评估时需充分考虑气候变化的影响,加快典型气象年数据的生成和更新工作。基于天津现行使用的典型气象年数据模拟得到的办公建筑制冷负荷较1981-2010年偏低6.7%,供热负荷偏高4.7%。表明采用现行典型气象年数据进行建筑能耗评估时,会造成制冷负荷偏低,供热负荷偏高,从而降低人体舒适度及造成供热能源浪费。     

The probability of detecting first generation stars of the Galaxy

First generation stars are the oldest stars that were formed in post-big bang, primitive gas, containing no elements heavier than carbon, with ages greater than 14 Gyr and having undergone no evolution so far. Observations over a long time have confirmed that, up to now, no stars with zero metallicity ([Fe/H]) or with [Fe/H]≤ −6 have been found in the Galaxy. To explain this absence, we shall make a theoretical calculation of the probability of detecting first generation stars using Tsuiimoto et al.'s model of chemical evolution of the galactic halo and assuming an initial mass function of the Miller-Scalo form. We use all the observational data on the halo stars to constrain the parameters. Our result is that, if the mass of the cloud that formed the stars is 10⁶–10⁷ M, then the probability of detecting first generation stars is 6.14×10⁻⁴–6.14×10⁻⁵.     

THE PEATLAND/ICE AGE HYPOTHESIS REVISED, ADDING A POSSIBLE GLACIAL PULSE TRIGGER

Carbon sequestering in peatlands is believed to be a major climate‐regulating mechanism throughout the late Phanerozoic. Since plant life first evolved on land, peatlands have been significant carbon sinks, which could explain significant parts of the large variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed in various records. The result is peat in different degrees of metamorphosis, i.e. lignite, hard coal and graphite. During phases of extensive glaciations such as the 330–240 Ma Pangea Ice Age, atmospheric carbon dioxide was critically low. This pattern repeats itself during the Pleistocene when carbon dioxide oscillates with an amplitude of c. 200–300 ppmv. This paper suggests that the ice age cycles during the Pleistocene are generated by the interglacial growth of peatlands and the subsequent sequestering of carbon into this terrestrial pool. The final initiation of ice age pulses towards the end of inter‐glacials, on the other hand, is attributed to the cyclic influx of cosmic dust to the Earth surface, which in turn regulates cloud formation and the incoming shortwave radiation. These shorter cycles have a frequency of c. 1000‐1250 years and might be connected to sunspot or other low frequency solar variations. In a wider context the ice age cycling could be regarded as an interplay between terrestrial life on the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and the marine subsurface life in the southeast. If the results presented here are correct, the present global warming might just be the early part of a new warm period such as the Bronze Age and the Roman and Medieval Warm periods. This could be caused by entry into another phase of decreasing influx rates of cosmic dust. The increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide might have contributed to this warming but, most important of all, it might temporarily have saved us from a new ice age pulse.     

2006年全球气候异常，多项纪录被打破

 以世界气象组织发布的2006年全球变化状况的报告为基础，结合全球相关的资料报道，总结了2006年全球的气候变化特征：2006年为近百年来第5个最暖年，全球出现了大范围的气候异常，包括欧洲最暖的秋天、澳大利亚的严重干旱、非洲大角地区的极端干旱和严重洪涝、菲律宾群岛的暴雨，以及北极海冰面积的进一步减少等。     

球状星团M3的绝对自行测定及其空间运动

使用上海天文台佘山40厘米折射望远镜拍摄的两期共14张球状星团M3底片的PDS扫描结果,以ACT星表中的24颗恒星的位置和绝对自行为参考架,用中心重叠法进行天体测量归算,得到了这个星团中心附近1°5．5x1°．5天区内534颗恒星的位置和绝对自行,并利用这些自行对成员概率进行估算,得到这个星团的赤经方向绝对自行为-0．3±0．3mas/yr,赤纬方向绝对自行为-3．1±0．3mas/yr．使用该自行值,结合已知的M3的距离和视向速度,计算了其在给定的银河系引力势中的运动轨道．