Variability of phytoplankton biomass in a lowland river: Response to climate conditions

The results are presented of an intensive study of phytoplankton assemblage carried out in the Berounka River above its confluence with the Vltava River (Czech Republic) in the period 2002–2007. The annual and interannual changes of phytoplankton development (based on high frequency of sampling) and their relation to hydrological conditions and concentrations of main nutrients are analysed. A marked decline of nutrient concentrations was observed during the period 1996–2007. The annual mean values of total P decreased from 0.43 mg L⁻¹ to 0.16 mg L⁻¹, those of N-NO₃ from 4.6 mg L⁻¹ to 1.5 mg L⁻¹ and N-NH₄ from 1.9 mg L⁻¹ to 0.04 mg L⁻¹. Despite this, the phytoplankton biomass remained at a high level. The seasonal mean values of chlorophyll-a ranged from 51.0 μg L⁻¹ to 116.8 μg L⁻¹ in the same time period. An obviously stronger relationship was found of the phytoplankton biomass and pattern of its development to the variation of flow rates than to the existing level of nutrient concentrations. A significantly decreasing relationship (R² = 0.384, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to flow rates and a significantly increasing relationship (R² = 0.359, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to water temperatures were found, based on monthly mean values for the seasonal period 2002–2007. The results obtained indicate a remarkable increase of phytoplankton biomass and its prolongated occurrence in watercourses, which can be expected due to the consequences of the predicted climate change (i.e. higher occurrence of summer droughts and low precipitation amounts accompanied by a substantial drop of flow rates, increase of air and water temperatures), as described in the respective scenarios for the territory of the Czech Republic. Simulations by the regional climate models HIRHAM and RCAO and emission scenario SRES indicated the increase of air temperature by 2.5–5 °C, decrease of precipitation amount by 6–25% and decline of flows by 14–43% in the Berounka River for the scenario period 2071–2100.     

春节人口迁移的气候效应:以郑州为例

目前,我们对人类活动通过温室气体、气溶胶和土地利用对气候产生重要影响已经获得了很多认识。但是,人口迁移流动在多大程度上能够影响气候尚不清楚。中国春节期间的人口大迁移是世界上每年最大规模的人类迁徙。利用城市站和参考站的气温差表示城市热岛强度,以一个典型中国中部大城市—郑州为例,研究了春节人口大迁移对城市热岛效应的影响。结果表明,2005~2013年平均的春节周日平均、日最高和日最低温度郑州站与中牟站的差分别为0.16°C、0.29°C和-0.03°C,比春节周前2~4周和春节周后2~4周的平均值低了0.50°C、0.06°C和0.66°C。相对变化而言,日平均、日最高和日最低温度的差分别降低了76%、16%和105%。春节周日平均和日最低温度的差的变化都通过了99%的信度检验。     

基于ESDA的中国年画网络店铺区位演化

通过收集淘宝网络店铺中的中国年画店铺基本信息,基于地级市空间统计单元,运用探索性空间数据分析理论中的全局自相关、局部自相关和热区分析等方法,对中国年画网络店铺区位的演化特征进行定量分析与挖掘。研究结果表明：1）中国年画网络店铺的区位演化整体上具有显著的空间自相关性,空间聚集特征明显;2）店铺区位局部差异明显,京、津、冀、鲁等省市构成了店铺区位选择的区域中心,并对周边城市产生辐射;3）店铺区位选择的热区从呈斑块状、阶梯状地域分布,逐渐演化为京、津、冀、鲁等稳定连片热区;4）总结了影响年画网络店铺区位选择的3个主要因素：区域经济因素、传统文化因素和消费者个性化需求因素。     

Role of Antarctic ice mass balance in present-day sea-level change

The Antarctic ice sheet is arguably the most critical in terms of future sea-level rise, primarily because it contains 70% of the world's fresh water. While there exists evidence of accelerated ice-sheet ablation during the past decade, the possibility that the ice sheets contributed little to 20th century sea-level rise could result in Antarctica becoming the largest contributor to sea-level rise during the 21st century. Here we review the findings of studies published following the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) study, focusing on the role of Antarctica in present-day (1992–2006) sea-level rise. We show that the choice of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model significantly affects GRACE-estimated Antarctic mass loss, adding 0.25–0.45 mm/yr to the estimate of sea-level rise. The current estimate of Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise has a wide range: from −0.12 to +0.52 mm/yr. The discrepancy between observed sea-level trend of 1.8 mm/yr and those estimated from various geophysical sources (2.10 ± 0.99 mm/yr) is 0.30 mm/yr. The role of Antarctica in sea-level rise might be better constrained by lengthening satellite observations, using long-term GPS data to discriminate subglacial vertical motion from ice mass balance, and detecting the sea-level signal due to elastic loading from the melting ice-sheets.     

Blazar中央黑洞的变化特征和质量估计

利用blazar的长期的光学和红外测光数据分析了其变化特性,并利用Jurkevich技术和分立相关函数(DCF)法在光学数据中寻找光变曲线中的周期性.发现了1.5至19yr范围的周期.利用短时间尺度来估计中央黑洞的质量,发现γ射线噪blazar的中心黑洞质量范围为(3.8～130)×10     

从灾害链角度讨论2005年九江5.7级地震的预测

从月亮赤纬最大年和台风地震灾害链讨论了2005年九江5.7级地震的预测问题。 这是灾害链预测地震的指标之一。 月亮赤纬最大年垂向引潮力对九江地区的地震有触发作用。 台风向内陆深入并奔向九江地区, 这可能是震前大范围地下放出热气形成的低压对台风的吸引。 上述两因素的重合对预测地震的地区是有用的, 考虑到九江地区和附近麻城地区曾发生过5级和6级地震,这对预测九江地区地震的震级是个参考。     

Predicted star counts and mean parallaxes down to the 23rd magnitude

Star counts and mean parallaxes as a function of B, V, R magnitudes down to 23 are presented. The data were computed by the use of two fundamental equations of stellar statistics. The assumed model considers the Galaxy as a symmetrical system with respect to its rotation axis and to its equatorial plane and as composed of the thin disk (main sequence and red giants), the thick disk and spheroid populations. Numbers of stars and mean parallaxes were derived in bins of galactic longitude and latitude of 30° and 10°, respectively. For the computation of the mean parallaxes depending on Galactic coordinates and magnitudes, series of products of Hermite and Legendre polynomials and of Fourier terms were used. The results of this paper may help in the planning of future survey missions and in the design of new telescopes. In addition, mean parallaxes can be used to derive corrections to absolute parallaxes and proper motions for any position in the sky.     

2017年中国近海海表温度特征

通过对OISST资料1982—2017年中国近海海表面温度(SST)分析,发现2017年中国渤、黄、东海海表温度较常年偏高0～1.5℃,南海海表温度接近常年。2017年渤海海表温度是近36 a来最热的一年,达到14.4℃,黄海第二以及东海第三热的年份,整个中国近海海表温度的平均是历史第二高的年份。渤、黄、东海海表温度1—8月份达到或接近极端高温情况,之后海表温度降低并达到常年同期以下。对中国近海不同海区海表温度和陆地气温相关分析表明:不同海区受陆地气温影响区域不同,同时海表温度与陆地相关区域随着季节而变化。从2017年平流输运、净热通量、热含量和陆地大气温度影响等方面来看,造成渤、黄、东海海表温度偏高的主要原因是黑潮流速增强导致平流热输送增加,0～700 m热含量增加以及我国陆地区域气温的异常偏高,净热通量对其海表温度升高起抑制作用。     

The role of the Galactic Halo and the Single Source in the formation of the cosmic ray anisotropy

The existence of the cosmic ray Halo in our Galaxy has been discussed for more than half a century. If it is real it could help to explain some puzzling features of the cosmic ray flux: its small radial gradient, nearly perfect isotropy and the low level of the fine structure in the energy spectra of the various particles. All these features could be understood if: (a) the Halo has a big size (b) cosmic rays in the Halo have a uniform spatial or radial distribution and (c) the cosmic ray density in the Halo is comparable or even higher than that in the Galactic Disk. The main topic of the paper concerns the present status of the anisotropy and a model for its formation. In our model the extremely small amplitude of the dipole anisotropy is due to the dilution of the anisotropy in the Disk by the dominating isotropic cosmic rays from the Halo. Some minor deviations from complete isotropy in the sub-PeV and PeV energy regions point out to the possible contribution of the Single Source with the phase of its first harmonic opposite to the phase produced by the Disk.