Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

Nutrients, Chlorophyll a and Phytoplankton in the İskenderun Bay (Northeastern Mediterranean)

Abstract. The monthly changes in chlorophyll a , phytoplankton abundance and nutrient concentrations at two stations, one at the inshore and the other at the deep waters of the northern part of İskenderun Bay, were investigated between 1994 – 1995. The vertical distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass were also studied at the deep station. The concentrations of NO₃+NO₂-N, PO₄-P and SiO₄-Si of surface water at both stations were 0.31 – 1.63 µg-at · l^-1, 0.08 – 0.60 µg-at · l^-1 and 0.50 – 2.7 µg-at · l^-1, respectively. The highest concentrations were measured at the inshore station and clear differences were found between the inshore and deep-water stations. Chlorophyll a concentrations ranged from 0.17 to 2.78 µg · l^-1 and the highest value was measured in March. At the inshore station, which was affected by land run-off, phytoplankton abundance reached the highest value (21,308 cells · l^-1) in October 1995, with a marked dominance of Pseudonitzschia pungens (20,200 cells · l^-1). The nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations at the inshore station were higher than those at the deep station. One reason for this is the land-based nutrient input into the coastal area here. In spite of these effects, the bay is not eutrophicated because of circulation events in the northeastern Mediterranean.     

化合氯对浮游植物对绿素a和光合作用影响的室内研究

化合氯是温排水中主要的化学物质,它的存在会对电厂邻近水域中生活的浮游植物造成一定的影响,运用均匀设计的实验方法研究温度,化合氯浓度,氯处理时间,及这3个因素之间的交互作用,从中筛选出影响叶绿素a含量与光合作用过程的主要因子,结果表明：影响叶绿素a的主要因子是氯处理时间,氯浓度与处理时间之间的交互作用（置信水平为99％）,影响光合作用的主要是氯处理时间,氯浓度,氯处理时间与氯浓度之间的交互作用,以及温度与氯处理时间的交互作用（置换水平为98％）。     

Nonparametric Estimates of the Sea State Bias for the Jason-1 Radar Altimeter

The Jason-1 sea state bias (SSB) is analyzed in depth from the first year of GDR products. Compared to previous missions, this work benefits from two aspects of the empirical determination of the SSB from the altimetric data themselves. First, from a methodological point of view, a nonparametric technique (NP) has been developed and largely tested on TOPEX/Poseidon 1, GFO and Envisat data. The NP estimator has proven to be a useful tool in the SSB estimation, and it is now mature enough to be used for a refined analysis. On the other hand, the SSB can be extracted from three different data sets (crossovers, collinear data, and residuals) with different characteristics. It is then possible to cross calibrate various estimations of the SSB models and to determine the most accurate one. A systematic comparison is made between these different estimates for the Jason-1 altimeter. The collinear and crossover data sets yield very similar estimates despite their difference of spatial and temporal distributions. These SSB models assure consistency with the TOPEX mission when comparing Jason-1 and TOPEX residuals during the tandem phase. Thanks to the present work, the impact of the short wavelengths filtering on the SSB estimation is evidenced. More generally, our understanding of potential errors affecting the sea surface height and their impact onto the SSB estimation is also improved.     

2000年夏季莱州湾生态环境要素的分布特征

论文依据 2 0 0 0年夏季 8月 2 9日至 9月 2日莱州湾的 1次综合性生态环境调查资料 ,给出了表、中、底 3层的平均温度、盐度、主要营养盐浓度及其比例和叶绿素 a浓度 ,分析了莱州湾的温盐结构、主要营养盐和叶绿素 a的分布特征。由于莱州湾的水深较浅 ,各要素的垂直分布都比较均匀。生态环境要素的水平分布表现为小清河口为高温、低盐、高营养盐和高叶绿素 a浓度区 ,小清河口东测的湾顶区域为高温、高盐、相对低的营养盐和叶绿素 a浓度区。此次观测到的盐度较 1997年以前有明显升高。莱州湾各层平均的 N/ P和 Si/ N分别为 16.73和 1.67,都比 1998～ 1999年渤海中部的值大 ,但 N/ P比 1992 ,1995和 1996年莱州湾的 N/ P明显偏低。叶绿素 a浓度与硅酸盐浓度之间有较好的相关关系 (α=0 .0 1) ,表、中、底 3层叶绿素 a浓度同硅酸盐浓度的线性相关系数分别为 :0 .5 4 ,0 .68和 0 .67     

不同生长期坛紫菜多糖中组分含量的变化

于１９９０－１９９１年，运用＾１３Ｃ－ＮＭＲ和化学分析方法研究南方产和移植北方养殖的不同生长发育阶段坛紫菜多糖的组分变化，结果表明，随着藻体生长发育，坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量逐渐增加，而硫酸基的含量呈现先增加后减少的规律；北移坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖的含量高于南方坛紫菜，而硫酸基和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量低于南方坛紫菜。     

LAPP对中国对虾(Penaeus chinensis)生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响

实验研究维生素C多聚磷酸酯（LAPP）添加在对虾饲料中，对中国对虾的生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响；实验进一步证明了中国对虾饲料中LAPP的最适添加量为400mg／100g饲料;本文还提出饲料中的LAPP能够提高中国对虾的缺氧耐受力，在溶氧超过3．1mg／kg海水的情况下，效果显著，在降低到2．3mg／kg海水时，作用减弱；用副溶血弧菌（Vibroparahaemolyticus）注射入虾体内，12小时内记录发现，饲料中不含LAPP的一组中国对虾，死亡率高于其它组，并且，LAPP含量最高的一组，死亡率明显低，死亡时间也出现较晚，这证明LAPP能够提高中国对虾的免疫抵抗力；本实验用注射金黄色葡萄球菌后细胞的吞噬百分率作指标，研究对虾细胞的吞噬作用，发现饲料中不含LAPP的对虾的吞噬百分率较低，随着饲料中LAPP浓度的提高，对虾血细胞的吞噬百分率逐渐升高，说明中国对虾细胞的吞噬作用逐步增强。     

Application of the first internal transcribed spacer(ITS-1) of ribosomal DNA as a molecular marker to population analysis in farrer''s scallop Chlamys farreri

Sequence variation of the first internal transcribed spacer of ribosomal DNA （ ITS - 1 ） was examined and its application to the study of genetic variation was explored in four populations of farter＇ s scallop Chlamys farreri. ITS - 1 fragments, with a length of about 300 bp,of 78 individuals collected from Dalian, Qingdao, Yantai in China and Korea respectively were amplified via PCR, cloned and sequenced. Intra-genomic variation was examined by sequencing several clones of single individuals. Alignment and polymorphism analysis detected 44 haplotypes and 50 polymorphic sites which consist of 30 substitutions and 20 indels, indicating a high level of polymorphisms. Sequence analysis also showed a very low level of intra-individual variation. All these features validated the feasibility of application of ITS - 1 fragment to population analysis. Polymorphism analysis showed that the Korea sample has the richest genetic variation, followed by Yantai and Qingdao samples. AMOVA （analysis of molecular variance） showed that the majority （96.26%） of genetic variation was distributed within populations and 3.74% resulted from among populations, but with P 〈 0.05 （ = 0.042）, indicating that the populations in this study have significant divergence. This output was basically concordant with the result arising from RAPD data and different from that from mitochondrial 16S rDNA sequence data. Discussion on this inconsistency was made accordingly.     

软土海岸地区测量控制点标志的设立

分析了软土、湿地、滩涂地区特殊地理环境对测量控制点的影响;主要探讨了此类地区控制点标志的设计、施工。借助于建筑桩基技术和道桥施工方法,首次成功实现了某三角洲湿地滩涂地区统一布网。几年来,结合滩涂湿地测量、海岸防护和滩涂开发工程对部分控制点进行了初步检测,给出了部分检测数据。应用和检测均表明:桩基标石可较好地解决软土、湿地、滩涂地区控制点布设难题,显著提高软土海岸地区测量控制点标志的稳固性,从而延长控制网的可使用期。