1961年以来海河流域干旱时空变化特征分析

以干旱易发区海河流域为例,利用流域内及其周边地区58个气象站点1961-2010年逐日气象观测数据,结合累积相对湿润度指数和模糊集对评价法,考虑了干旱的累积效应以及评价标准等级边界的模糊性和评价因子的时程分配,分析了海河流域干旱时空变化特征。结果表明:①近50年来流域主要干旱类型为中旱和重旱,平均面积分别约为7.30万km2和7.78万km2,重旱面积呈现出显著的增加趋势;②近25年来,重旱易发区范围表现出扩张的态势,1985-2010年重旱易发区面积达到14.9万km2,为1961-1985年的1.6倍。     

Further developments of a fuzzy set map comparison approach

Fuzzy set map comparison offers a novel approach to map comparison.The approach is specifically aimed at categorical raster maps and applies fuzzy set techniques, accounting for fuzziness of location and fuzziness of category, to create a similarity map as well as an overall similarity statistic: the Fuzzy Kappa. To date, the calculation of the Fuzzy Kappa (or K-fuzzy) has not been formally derived, and the documented procedure was only valid for cases without fuzziness of category. Furthermore, it required an infinitely large, edgeless map. This paper presents the full derivation of the Fuzzy Kappa; the method is now valid for comparisons considering fuzziness of both location and category and does not require further assumptions. This theoretical completion opens opportunities for use of the technique that surpass the original intentions. In particular, the categorical similarity matrix can be applied to highlight or disregard differences pertaining to selected categories or groups of categories and to distinguish between differences due to omission and commission.     

废弃海洋桩基平台拆除方案的系统决策研究

海洋平台拆除是一项复杂的、受多种因素制约的、涉及许多技术领域的综合性系统工程。采取适当的拆除方案是工程安全、经济、环保地进行的基础和保证。针对这一问题，文章对拆除方案的评估进行了系统的研究，从环境、工艺、安全、经济、工期的角度建立了拆除方案评估指标体系，并综合运用群决策层次分析理论和模糊数学理论对拆除方案进行系统的评估。经实例验证，所建立的评估指标体系，可科学、公正、快捷地对方案进行评估，为决策者提供科学的决策基础。     

一种基于数据融合的地球物理数据联合反演方法

从地球物理反演的基本概念出发，认为地球物理反演是 对实测数据的地球物理属性的理解或解释，多方法的地球物理数据联合反演是一种多传感器 的数据融合. 本文分析了地球物理数据的模糊特性，采用基于语义的模糊化方法，使不同物 理意义和尺度的特征数据及测区的地质和地球物理背景成为一体，结合地球物理专家解释的 方法，利用基于模糊逻辑系统的神经网络实现了融合. 该方法充分利用了各种地球物理探测 数据的全部信息，避免了线性反演的复杂计算；其数据融合的观点,为解决地球物理联合反 演问题提供了新的思路. 通过模拟实验和应用实例验证，该方法是有效的.     

Two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming: application to water resources management under dual uncertainties

In this study, a two-stage fuzzy chance-constrained programming (TFCCP) approach is developed for water resources management under dual uncertainties. The concept of distribution with fuzzy probability (DFP) is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties. It is expressed as dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. As an improvement upon the conventional inexact linear programming for handling uncertainties in the objective function and constraints, TFCCP has advantages in uncertainty reflection and policy analysis, especially when the input parameters are provided as fuzzy sets, probability distributions and DFPs. TFCCP integrates the two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) and fuzzy chance-constrained programming within a general optimization framework. TFCCP incorporates the pre-regulated water resources management policies directly into its optimization process to analyze various policy scenarios; each scenario has different economic penalty when the promised amounts are not delivered. TFCCP is applied to a water resources management system with three users. Solutions from TFCCP provide desired water allocation patterns, which maximize both the system’s benefits and feasibility. The results indicate that reasonable solutions were generated for objective function values and decision variables, thus a number of decision alternatives can be generated under different levels of stream flows, α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices.     

基于模糊-集对分析理论的泥石流危险性评价

集对分析理论是一种处理确定性和不确定性的定量系统分析方法。本文通过模糊联系度对集对分析理论中的差异度系数做进一步挖掘和分析,建立了模糊-集对分析算法,即通过模糊联系度挖掘样本数据讨论类别与相邻类别间的接近程度,得出该类别与相邻类别之间的同异反信息。为了验证模型的适用性,通过实测北京房山区和门头沟区6条泥石流小流域基础数据,进行了危险性评价,并将评价结果与传统评价理论进行对比分析。得出结论：模糊-集对分析理论可以深度挖掘样本类别与相邻类别之间的同异反关系,通过对比现场调查数据发现模糊-集对分析法对泥石流小流域的评价结果更切合实际,且评价结果与可拓学等评价结果基本一致,该方法具有较高的准确性和严密性。     

基于GIS建模的海水环境质量可变模糊识别评价

基于对立统一与质量互变定理的可变模糊评价方法引入海水水质综合评价,构建基于对立统一与质量互变定理的海洋环境质量可变模糊评价模型,首先分析可变模糊评价方法的原理和方法,然后结合GIS栅格数据在表达空间信息方面具有的独特优势,以栅格数据为基础,利用地理信息系统空间叠置分析、地理信息系统空间建模等计算,建立基于多源栅格数据的海水环境可变模糊综合评价模型,得到莱州湾2004~2010年海水环境空间分布图。实践证明,该模型应用于海水水质综合评价是完全可行的,为海洋环境领域的多目标综合评价与决策提供了新的思路与方法。     

Quantification of spatial gradation of slope positions

Transition between slope positions (e.g., ridge, shoulder slope, back slope, foot slope, and valley) is often gradual. Quantification of spatial transitions or spatial gradations between slope positions can increase the accuracy of terrain parameterization for geographical or ecological modeling, especially for digital soil mapping at a fine scale. Current models for characterizing the spatial gradation of slope positions based on a gridded DEM either focus solely on the parameter space or depend on too many rules defined by topographic attributes, which makes such approaches impractical. The typical locations of a slope position contain the characteristics of the slope position in both parameter space and spatial context. Thus, the spatial gradation of slope positions can be quantified by comparing terrain characteristics (spatial and parametrical) of given locations to those at typical locations. Based on this idea, this paper proposes an approach to quantifying the spatial gradation of slope positions by using typical locations as prototypes. This approach includes two parts: the first is to extract the typical locations of each slope position and treat them as the prototypes of this position; and the second is to compute the similarity between a given location and the prototypes based on both local topographic attributes and spatial context. The new approach characterizes slope position gradation in both the attribute domain (i.e., parameter space) and the spatial domain (i.e., geographic space) in an easy and practicable way. Applications show that the new approach can quantitatively describe spatial gradations among a set of slope positions. Comparison of spatial gradation of A-horizon sand percentages with the quantified spatial gradation of slope positions indicates that the latter reflects slope processes, confirming the effectiveness of the approach. The comparison of a soil subgroup map of the study area with the maximum similarity map derived from the approach also suggests that the quantified spatial gradation of slope position can be used to aid geographical modeling such as digital soil mapping.     

Mapping the farming-pastoral ecotones in China

Conventional farming-pastoral ecotones methods of delineating were not quantitative and could not fully show their spatial distribution. The present paper attempts to develop quantitative methods for mapping farming-pastoral ecotones in China. Nine indicators, related to temperature, precipitation and altitude aspects, were selected to quantify ecological susceptibility of vegetation （crops and forage）. Methods of analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and expert score ranking combined with fuzzy set theory were applied to assign the weight for each indicator and to define the membership functions. The geographic information system （GIS） was used to manage the spatial database and conduct the spatial analysis. According to the spatial calculation of evaluation model integrated with GIS, the ecological susceptibility of vegetation （crops and forage） was mapped. Three different zones, pastoral area, farming-pastoral ecotones and farming area, were classified by spatial cluster analysis and the maximum likelihood classification for the numeric map of vegetation ecological susceptibility by GIS. This map was validated by the economic statistical result based on the ratio of the output value from animal husbandry in total output value of agriculture by the National Bureau of Statistics in China, indicating that the mapping of the farming-pastoral ecotones may be accepted.     

基于正交试验法的粗粒土模糊集塑性硬化模型参数的敏感性分析

基于正交试验法, 本文对粗粒土模糊集塑性硬化模型的8个关键模型参数进行敏感性分析。采用美国CASE试验数据库中的试验数据, 以seid sand为例, 通过大量计算, 采用数理统计的相关理论, 获取参数的期望和方差, 经过比较, 对模型的关键参数进行敏感性排序。计算结果表明, 该研究方法可为模糊集塑性硬化模型参数的选取提供必要的参考, 同时也可应用于该模型的二次开发, 以减少其参数反演分析和筛选的工作量。