城市地区抗御地震灾害风险评估项目综述

城市地区抗御地震灾害风险评估项目系联合国在上世纪末为减轻地震灾害所实施的规模宏大，影响甚远的国际性研究项目，其宗旨是为了提高社会公众防灾意识，有效地减轻城市地区的地震灾害。这一历时2年的项目在有限的经费支持下，取得了令人瞩目的成绩。结合自贡市开展这个项目的实践。综合介绍和总结了该项目的情况及经验。     

2-D crustal structure of Changbaishan-Tianchi volcanic region determined by seismic traveltime inversion

IntroductionTrial-and-error forward modeling of wide-angle seismic reflection/refraction traveltimes for 2-D velocity structure is extremely time-consuming, even for experienced data interpreters. For wide-angle seismic reflection/refraction experiments that consist of numerous shots along a single line, it is quite difficult through repeated trial-and-error forward modeling to construct a 2-D model that fits the data within acceptable limits (Cerveny, et al, 1977; ZHANG, et al, 200 . In ad…     

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.     

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。     

企业地震预警系统应用研究

在充分调研国外地震预警系统现状的基础上，进行了地震预警系统的研究，研制了相应的数据分析软件。采用数字化观测技术、GIS技术等高新技术，在中国石油天然气股份有限公司大连分公司建立了地震预警试验系统，并将该地震预警系统与地震应急系统相连，为今后开展类似工作积累了经验。     

Gravity and magnetic signatures of volcanic plugs related to Deccan volcanism in Saurashtra, India and their physical and geochemical properties

The Bouguer anomaly and the total intensity magnetic maps of Saurashtra have delineated six circular gravity highs and magnetic anomalies of 40-60 mGal (10⁻⁵m/s²) and 800-1000 nT, respectively. Three of them in western Saurashtra coincide with known volcanic plugs associated with Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP), while the other three in SE Saurashtra coincide with rather concealed plugs exposed partially. The DVP represents different phases of eruption during 65.5±2.5 Ma from the Reunion plume. The geochemical data of the exposed rock samples from these plugs exhibit a wide variation in source composition, which varies from ultramafic/mafic to felsic composition of volcanic plugs in western Saurashtra and an alkaline composition for those in SE Saurashtra. Detailed studies of granophyres and alkaline rocks from these volcanic plugs reveal a calc-alkaline differentiation trend and a continental tectonic setting of emplacement. The alkaline plugs of SE Saurashtra are associated with NE-SW oriented structural trends, related to the Gulf of Cambay and the Cambay rift basin along the track of the Reunion plume. This indicates a deeper source for these plugs compared to those in the western part and may represent the primary source magma. The Junagadh plug with well differentiated ring complexes in western Saurashtra shows well defined centers of magnetic anomaly while the magnetic anomalies due to other plugs are diffused though of the same amplitude. This implies that other plugs are also associated with mafic/ultramafic components, which may not be differentiated and may be present at subsurface levels. Paleomagnetic measurements on surface rock samples from DVP in Saurashtra suggest a susceptibility of 5.5×10⁻² SI units with an average Koenigsberger ratio (Q_n) of almost one and average direction of remanent magnetization of D=147.4° and I=+56.1°. The virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) position computed from the mean direction of magnetization for the volcanic plugs and Deccan basalt of Saurashtra is 30°N and 74°W, which is close to the VGP position corresponding to the early phases of Deccan eruption. Modeling of gravity and magnetic anomalies along two representative profiles across Junagadh and Barda volcanic plugs suggest a bulk density of 2900 and 2880 kg/m³, respectively and susceptibility of 3.14×10⁻² SI units with a Q_n ratio of 0.56 which are within the range of their values obtained from laboratory measurements on exposed rock samples. The same order of gravity and magnetic anomalies observed over the volcanic plugs of Saurashtra indicates almost similar bulk physical properties for them. The inferred directions of magnetization from magnetic anomalies, however, are D=337° and 340° and I=−38° and −50° which represent the bulk direction of magnetization and also indicate a reversal of the magnetic field during the eruption of these plugs. Some of these plugs are associated with seismic activities of magnitude ≤4 at their contacts. Based on this analysis, other circular/semi-circular gravity highs of NW India can be qualitatively attributed to similar subsurface volcanic plugs.     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

长白山自然保护区旅游灾害及其防治对策

旅游灾害越来越受到人们的重视,文章通过对长白山自然保护区常见灾害类型的分析,建立了灾害管理系 统框架模型,为降低和消除旅游灾害,提出了防范对策。