震灾保险研究中的软科学问题

震灾保险研究融会着自然科学与社会科学的紧密结合和相互渗透,基于这一认识,本文联系震灾保险的社会属性,分析并指出这一险种的非强制性质;保护应用的权益与责任;对社会不规范投保行为的制约;正确理解“与国际惯例接轨”、地震系统的协作模式、政府部门的政策导向等等带有根本性的问题,以启示人们把握研究的大方向,从而加快我国该项研究的实用化进程。     

赣东北鹅湖岭组的再认识

在分析赣东北鹅湖岭组及有关地层的地质特征、地层划分现状及产生分岐的原因的基础上,提出以岩性、岩相为划分依据,将鹅湖岭组与喷发相相对应,将其下界、上界分别置于沉积喷发相与喷发相、喷发相与喷发沉积相的相变界面上。从而将北京地质学院指定的打鼓顶组建组剖面上的"打鼓顶组"并入鹅湖岭组;将赣东北其它地区的鹅湖岭组下界由安山岩层顶界处上移至安山岩层之上灰绿色砂岩层的顶界处,将铅山一上饶一带鹅湖岭组上界下移至原鹅湖岭组上部的底界处。     

The origin of accretionary lapilli

Experimental investigations in a recirculating wind tunnel of the mechanisms of formation of accretionary lapilli have demonstrated that growth is controlled by collision of liquid-coated particles, due to differences in fall velocities, and binding as a result of surface tension forces and secondary mineral growth. The liquids present on particle surfaces in eruption plumes are acid solutions stable at 100% relative humidity, from which secondary minerals, e.g. calcium sulphate and sodium chloride, precipitate prior to impact of accretionary lapilli with the ground. Concentric grain-size zones within accretionary lapilli build up due to differences in the supply of particular particle sizes during aggregate growth. Accretionary lapilli do not evolve by scavenging of particles by liquid drops followed by evaporation — a process which, in wind tunnel experiments, generates horizontally layered hemispherical aggregates. Size analysis of particles in the wind tunnel air stream and particles adhering to growing aggregates demonstrate that the aggregation coefficient is highly grain-size dependent. Theoretical simulation of accretionary lapilli growth in eruption plumes predicts maximum sizes in the range 0.7–20 mm for ash cloud thicknesses of 0.5–10 km respectively.     

THEORY AND PRACTICE FOR COMPILING THE ATLAS OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN CHINA

CompilinganatlasofnaturaldisastersinChinaisabasistoresearchintoregionaldisasterssystems,torevealthetemPOralandspatialpatternofnaturaldisasters,aswellastoestablishcountermeasuresopinstnamraldisasters.TaldngtheuAtlasOfNaturalDisastersinChina"**asanexample,thisarticleinquiresintotheoreticalandpracticalproblemsaboutcompilinganatlasofregionalnaturaldisasters.ThebasictheoryofcompilinganatlasOfregionaldisastershasbeenfOundedonthecombinati0nofthesciencesofdisasters,cart0graphyandregiotalmhy.Theref…     

Palaeolimnological studies of the eutrophication of volcanic Lake Albano (Central Italy)

We use palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct the eutrophication history of a volcanic lake (Lake Albano, central Italy) over the past three centuries. The presence of annual varves down to the bottom of the core (c. 1700 A.D.) indicated the lack of bioturbation and likely long-term meromixis. Sedimentation rates were estimated by varve counts (calcite/diatom couplets), indicating a mean rate of 0.15 cm yr^–1. The reconstruction of eutrophication was traced using past populations of algal and photosynthetic bacteria (through their fossil pigment), and geochemistry, as well as fossil remains of chironomids. Phaeophorbidea and the red carotenoid astaxanthin were used to detect past zooplankton development.The first sign of trophic change related to human activities is datedc. 1870 A.D. From that period onward a sharp increase of authigenic CaCO₃, nitrogen, N:P ratio, and dinoxanthin, a characteristic carotenoid of Chrysophyceae and Dinophyceae, is observed.Chironomid analyses showed the near absence of a deep water fauna throughout the core length. The populations of chironomid larvae are restricted to oxygenated littoral zones. In fact, the few fossil remains found are primarily of littoral origin, representing shallow water midges that were transported to profundal waters. The reduction of total chironomid in the uppermost layers of the core is to be related to human land uses.     

首都减灾圈的思考与建议

首都减灾圈,系首都减轻自然灾害预测防治圈。1991年12月20—21日在北京召开了《首都圈自然灾害及其减灾对策研讨会》。本文根据这次会议所提供的材料,在从整体上实现减灾的思想指导下,就首都减灾圈的“成灾背景”、“首都减灾圈的组成”、“首都减灾圈的灾害预测与防治状况”、“首都减灾圈的灾害关联性分析”、“首都减灾圈的减灾实效预估”和“首都减灾圈的减灾对策与实施”等六个带有共同性的问题,进行了讨论。供制定首都圈减灾方案时参考。     

Episode 49 of the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea volcano-breakdown of a steady-state eruptive era

The Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption (1983-present) is the longest lived rift eruption of either Kilauea or neighboring Mauna Loa in recorded history. The initial fissure opening in January 1983 was followed by three years of episodic fire fountaining at the Pu'u 'O'o vent on Kilauea's east rift zone 19km from the summit (episodes 4–47). These spectacular events gave way in July 1986 to five and a half years of nearcontinuous, low-level effusion from the Kupaianaha vent, 3km to the cast (episode 48). A 49th episode began in November 1991 with the opening of a new fissure between Pu'u 'O'o and Kupaianaha. this three week long outburst heralded an era of more erratic eruptive behavior characterized by the shut down of Kupaianaha in February 1992 and subsequent intermittent eruption from vents on the west flank of Pu'u 'O'o (episodes 50 and 51). The events occurring over this period are due to progressive shrinkage of the rift-zone reservoir beneath the eruption site, and had limited impact on eruption temperatures and lava composition.     

日本自然灾害现状与新态势

日本是一个多灾且严重的国家,依据最新资料,分析了日本自然灾害的现状特征;自然灾害影响社会经济发展,而社会经济变化可能成为新的致灾因素并形成新的灾害形式。本文特别对城市化、过疏化、高龄化和网络化与灾害进行了论述;最后论述了“自助”“共助”和“公助”三位一体的防灾基本对策的内容。这些对正处于高速经济发展和城市化的我国来说,具有重要的借鉴作用。     

Characterization of cristobalite in ash and dome rock from the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat： Implications for respiratory health hazards

A link between the inhalation of respirable silicas （SiO2） and respiratory diseases such as silicosis is widely recognized. Ash from dome collapse eruptions on Montserrat has been found to contain high levels （〉20%） of silicas in the form of cristobalite, tridymite, quartz and/or amorphous silica. The toxicity of these silica polymorphs varies widely. Cristobalite and quartz （tridymite less well established） are viewed as carcinogenic to humans whereas amorphous silica generally shows a reduced biological response. In assessing the potential health effects of volcanic ash particulates it is vital to determine the types and concentration of silicas as well as their size （respirable fraction）, shape and surface properties. The aim of this study is to develop methods to assess potentially toxic respirable airborne silicas in the dome collapse ash （applicable to a range of ash types） and to develop a model to predict the levels and types of respirable silicas from future eruptions. The model is being developed by comparing dome rock with related ash from a series of previous eruption events. Mineralogical assessment using conventional scanning X-ray diffraction （XRD） was hampered by difficulties in differentiating characteristic peaks for cristobalite and tridymite in complex multi-component ash samples （containing high levels of plagioclase）. These difficulties have been largely overcome using an Enraf-Nonius PDS120 diffractometer with curved （120 degrees 20） position sensitive detector （PSD）. The determination of size, shape and elemental characteristics of ash particulate and dome rock samples has been carried out using automated analytical scanning electron microscopy. The quantification of mineral proportions using PSD-XRD was highly successful with an accuracy of 1 to 2 wt%. However, the determination of phase proportions using automated analytical SEM was problematic due to scattering effects and the multiphase nature of many of the particles.