基于土地集约利用的长株潭城市群建设用地供需仿真模拟

土地集约利用反映了土地利用的综合状态,是协调土地供需平衡的重要指标。运用系统动力学（SD）构建城市建设用地供需反馈关系回路以及指标变量函数,在此基础上,建立长株潭城市群建设用地供需系统模型,仿真模拟低土地集约利用度、中等土地集约利用度、高土地集约利用度三种不同状态条件下,2016-2030年区域的建设用地、工业用地和居住用地供需变化趋势。结果表明：① 研究区用地规模仍处于扩张状态,城市建设用地数量增长速度总体较快。但三种发展状态下用地增长规模、速度存有差异;② 在低集约度模式下,建设用地规模及供地数量大,易造成土地资源的浪费;高集约度模式下,建设用地供给紧缩,用地规模增长缓慢,总规模偏小,不利于城镇化的良性发展;中等集约度模式则在用地规模和供给量上均与社会经济发展相适应,能体现现代城市发展理念;③ 工业用地占建设用地比例保持在15%~21%之间,其中低集约度模式下比例逐年上升,中等和高集约度模式下呈缓慢下降并趋于稳定之势;居住用地占建设用地的比例维持在27%~35%之间,其中低集约度和中等集约度模式用地占比呈下降趋势,高集约度模式比例总体维持在较高水平。研究通过对三种发展模式的设定,确定了不同指标在三种模式下的变化趋势,可为土地供需决策优化、城市建设规划及土地供给侧结构性改革提供科学参考。     

基于EMD的山东省GDP增长与耕地变化的关系

本文首次用EMD方法,对山东省的经济增长与耕地面积变化关系进行比较分析,试图找出两者的互动关系,以期对山东省的耕地资源保护有所借鉴。研究结果表明:山东省GDP增长的波动周期为13年、23年、37年和55年;山东省耕地变化的周期为9年、13年、37年和55年。这充分证明了GDP增长的波动对山东省耕地周期性变化的驱动作用。到2015年前后,山东省经济增长的耕地代价性损失将大大减少,耕地数量将维持在一个相对稳定的水平,经济增长和耕地数量减少进入一个良性的发展阶段。最后,本文首次尝试建立有周期的动力学模型,对山东省未来20年的耕地面积变化进行了预测。     

The dynamics of a channel-fed lava flow on Pico Partido volcano, Lanzarote

A short length of channel on Pico Partido volcano, Lanzarote, provides us the opportunity to examine the dynamics of lava flowing in a channel that extends over a sudden break in slope. The 1–2-m-wide, 0.5–2-m-deep channel was built during the 1730–1736 eruptions on Lanzarote and exhibits a sinuous, well-formed channel over a steep (11° slope) 100-m-long proximal section. Over-flow units comprising smooth pahoehoe sheet flow, as well as evidence on the inner channel walls for multiple (at least 11) flow levels, attest to unsteady flow in the channel. In addition, superelevation is apparent at each of the six bends along the proximal channel section. Superelevation results from banking of the lava as it moves around the bend thus causing preferential construction of the outer bank. As a result, the channel profile at each bend is asymmetric with an outer bank that is higher than the inner bank. Analysis of superelevation indicates flow velocities of ~8 m s^–1. Our analysis of the superelevation features is based on an inertia-gravity balance, which we show is appropriate, even though the down-channel flow is in laminar flow. We use a viscosity-gravity balance model, together with the velocities calculated from superelevation, to obtain viscosities in the range 25–60 Pa s (assuming that the lava behaved as a Newtonian liquid). Estimated volume fluxes are in the range 7–12 m³ s^–1. An apparent down-flow increase in derived volume flux may have resulted from variable supply or bulking up of the flow due to vesiculation. Where the channel moves over a sharp break in slope and onto slopes of ~6°, the channel becomes less well defined and widens considerably. At the break of slope, an elongate ridge extends across the channel. We speculate that this ridge was formed as a result of a reduction in velocity immediately below the break of slope to allow deposition of entrained material or accretion of lava to the channel bed as a result of a change in flow regime or depth.     

Dynamical studies of cluster pairs in the Magellanic Clouds

We performed N -body simulations of star cluster encounters with Hernquist's TREECODE in a CRAY YMP-2E computer under different initial conditions (relative positions and velocities, cluster sizes, masses and concentration degrees). The total number of particles per simulation ranged from 1024 to 20480. These models are compared with a series of isodensity maps of cluster pairs in the Magellanic Clouds. Evidence is found that during the interactions, transient morphological effects such as an expanded halo, isophotal deformation and isophotal twisting can occur as a result of tidal effects and dynamical friction. The simulations also show that different outcomes are possible depending on the initial parameters: (i) long-standing changes of concentration degree can occur after the collision; (ii) one member can disaggregate; or (iii) the pair can coalesce into a single cluster with a distinct structure compared with the original ones. These simulations can reproduce a wide range of morphological structures in observed cluster pairs.     

Time evolution of galactic warps in prolate haloes

A recent observation with the Hipparcos satellite and some numerical simulations imply that the interaction between an oblate halo and a disc is inappropriate for the persistence of galactic warps. Following on from this , we have compared the time evolution of galactic warps in a prolate halo with that in an oblate halo. The haloes were approximated as fixed potentials, while the discs were represented by N -body particles. We have found that the warping in the oblate halo continues to wind up, and finally disappears. On the other hand, for the prolate halo model, the precession rate of the outer disc increases when the precession of the outer disc recedes from that of the inner disc, and vice versa. Consequently, the warping in the prolate halo persisted to the end of the simulation by retaining the alignment of the line of nodes of the warped disc. Therefore, our results suggest that prolate haloes could sustain galactic warps. The physical mechanism of the persistence of warp is discussed on the basis of the torque between a halo and a disc and that between the inner and outer regions of the disc.     

星际甲醇（CH3OH）脉泽

简要综述了近年来对于星际ＣＨ３ＯＨ脉泽的观测和研究成果，对ＣＨ３ＯＨ脉泽的性质从分类，生成区域及分布，辐射特性，运动状况等方面做了介绍，并阐明了理论上对其时变特性，激发机制及河外脉泽的探讨，最后对两种类型的ＣＨ３ＯＨ脉泽作了对比和讨论。