绿色交通目标下集装箱“公转铁”的CO2减排潜力评估

为提高集装箱“公转铁”减排潜力评估结果的准确性,在分析“公转铁”减排原理的基础上,综合考虑空箱调运和重箱运输“门到门”运输链的干线运输、端点装卸、电力设备作业、集卡短驳、公铁中转等排放,引入反映活动类型、设备结构、能源生命周期排放的参数,对作业活动-方式结构-能耗强度-排放因子（ASIF）方法进行改进,建立“公转铁”减排潜力评估框架。以义乌—宁波港域出口集装箱运输为例,通过实地调研和公开文献获取数据,进行实证研究。结果表明,如果忽略必要因素将会导致每TEU运输需求“公转铁”的CO₂减排率被高估0.50~36.73个百分点;最佳“公转铁”情景可减排3.42万t CO₂,相应减排率为13.58%。研究结果可为政府相关部门客观评估“公转铁”的减排潜力、制定有效的“公转铁”政策措施提供理论支持。     

川滇强震的回归—马尔可夫链联合预测

本文应用回归—马尔可夫链联合预测地震的方法,结合川、滇强震的特点,对川、滇强震进行了计算,并作了预测验证。结果表明,该方法对川、滇强震的预测效果较好。     

周、秦、汉、唐时期关中地区自然灾害与粮食安全问题研究

周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中农业较为发达,为多个王朝建都之地。京师之地的粮食问题十分重要,汉代以后屡屡出现粮食紧张局面,其原因除移民、战乱等因素外,自然灾害的影响不容忽视。研究发现,周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中的粮食在秦以前基本自给,两汉、魏晋以后依赖关东趋于明显,隋唐时期关中粮食所需则自产自给和漕运并重。这一演变过程,与关中自然灾害的发生状况有着紧密联系。随着西汉以后生态环境的破坏和人类垦殖活动的日益加剧,关中地区水旱灾害发生频繁,对粮食安全产生了严重影响。期间的中央政府不断采取扩大农业垦殖、提高农业生产技术和漕运等手段,以解决京师用粮。     

地球物理灾害链有关物理问题的讨论

对地球物理灾害链的致灾机理,地震引起的放气范围、放气时间过程的计算方法,以及地气耦合致灾模式,进行了讨论和分析。分析结果认为,巨灾大都是多种因素迭加和强化的结果。由于单学科往往提出的致灾因素有限,所以预测效果不甚理想。要多学科从多种因素上去研究,才能改进大灾预测手段和方法,最后达到灾害链全链预测的目的。     

CINRAD/SA(B)发射机激励放大器芯片级故障诊断流程

激励放大器是发射机射频放大链电路前级功率放大器,对雷达探测资料可靠性具有重要作用。研究芯片级故障诊断流程,一方面可以解决台站技术保障人员无法故障定位到芯片级的技术难题;另一方面,芯片级故障维修可达到大大降低维修成本的目的。雷达故障一般分为参数调整不当导致性能下降故障和器件损坏造成参数异常故障。为此,通过总结出CINRAD/SA(B)发射机激励放大器信号流程、故障树图集,在依据同步信号时序关系及关键点波形参数基础上,研究出规范化的激励放大器调试技术和方法,以及激励放大器芯片级故障诊断定位流程,并列举了依据激励放大器芯片级故障诊断定位流程,修复激励放大器集成块N8损坏,导致+8 V电源不正常,造成激励放大器无功率输出,以及激励放大器的第二级功放模块故障导致激励放大器输出功率低的两个故障的典型个例,以检验维修效果。实际应用结果表明:芯片级激励放大器故障诊断定位流程可以快速定位发射机激励放大器故障点到故障器件,方法简洁、思路清晰、操作规范,基层雷达站技术人员容易掌握;激励放大器调试技术和方法,能解决激励放大器参数调整不当导致激励放大器性能下降故障,可有效提高新一代天气雷达技术保障水平。     

Inland capture fisheries in the Mekong and their place and potential within food-led regional development

The inland capture fisheries of the Mekong represent critical sources of nutrition in rural diets in a region that faces endemic food and nutritional deficits. However within regional development debates that prioritize utilising the waters of the Mekong to generate electricity, capture fisheries are often presented as ultimately doomed, and therefore as an unfortunate, but necessary trade-off for hydropower. At the heart of these debates, lie contested definitions of development. The notion that fisheries could or should be traded-off for some other form of development exemplifies this tension.This paper draws on anthropological approaches to policy analysis based on discourse and narratives. We begin by placing the conventional wisdom regarding the place of fisheries in regional development under closer scrutiny. We then explore the potential for a counter narrative based around food and food sovereignty, in which fisheries and fishers are drivers, rather than costs of development. We argue that fisheries provide a range of livelihood and developmental values that cannot be replaced and that their management continues to hold potential for strengthening independence and self-reliance. In doing so, we build on empirical evidence from the Lao PDR, a country with a rich capture fishery but also endemic food crises, and also a national policy commitment to both poverty reduction and extensive large-scale hydropower development. As such, this paper attempts to reframe the debate on development in the Mekong. The paper has wider significance for considering how a broader focus on food and food producers can generate alternative development pathways.     

关于-遗传算法收敛性的注记

遗传算法是一种受到广泛注意的全局优化算法,已经在包括地震工程的很多领域中获得应用.本文将结合这一算法的实际操作步骤,对简单遗传算法的不收敛性和包含最优个体保护策略的遗传算法的收敛性给出一个简要的证明.     

Seasonal variation of microzooplankton (20–200 μm) and its possible implications on the vertical carbon flux in the western Bay of Bengal

Stratification (throughout the year) and low solar radiation (during monsoon periods) have caused low chlorophyll a and primary production (seasonal average 13–18 mg m⁻² and 242–265 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively) in the western Bay of Bengal (BoB). The microzooplankton (MZP) community of BoB was numerically dominated by heterotrophic dinoflagellates (HDS) followed by ciliates (CTS). The highest MZP abundance (average 665±226×10⁴ m⁻²), biomass (average 260±145 mg C m⁻²) and species diversity (Shannon weaver index 2.8±0.42 for CTS and 2.6±0.35 for HDS) have occurred during the spring intermonsoon (SIM). This might be due to high abundance of smaller phytoplankton in the western BoB during SIM as a consequence of intense stratification and nitrate limitation (nitracline at 60 m depth). The strong stratification during SIM was biologically evidenced by intense blooms of Trichodesmium erythraeum and frequent Synechococcus–HDS associations. The high abundance of smaller phytoplankton favors microbial food webs where photosynthetic carbon is channeled to higher trophic levels through MZP. This causes less efficient transfer of primary organic carbon to higher trophic levels than through the traditional food web. The microbial food web dominant in the western BoB during SIM might be responsible for the lowest mesozooplankton biomass observed (average 223 mg C m⁻²). The long residence time of the organic carbon in the surface waters due to the active herbivorous pathways of the microbial food web could be a causative factor for the low vertical flux of biogenic carbon during SIM.     

Comparison of life-history parameters and effectiveness in competition with Moina macrocopa between two Keratella tropica morphs

Competition and predation are the two major biotic interactions in zooplankton community. Various rotifer species exhibit polymorphism in lorica and spine morphology in the presence of predators and competitors, which effectively increases their defence competition capacity. This study compared life-history parameters between long-spined morph (LSM) and short-spined morph (SSM) of Keratella tropica at three temperatures. The results showed that both morphs showed significantly higher intrinsic rate of population increase at 25 °C than those at 20 °C and 30 °C. The intrinsic rate of population increase was significantly lower in LSM than SSM at 25 °C and 30 °C, and the net reproductive rate was significantly lower in LSM than SSM at 30 °C. These results suggested that K. tropica had cost on development of long spines, which, however, was dependent on temperature. Moreover, the competition outcome of LSM and SSM with Moina macrocopa were investigated at three densities of Scenedesmus obliquus (0.5 × 10⁶, 1.0 × 10⁶ and 2.0 × 10⁶ cells/mL) and three initial densities of M. macrocopa (0.1, 0.3 and 0.9 ind./mL), revealing that both LSM and SSM populations decreased significantly at all tested algal densities and Moina levels. LSM showed higher population growth rate than SSM at lower algal density (0.5 × 10⁶ cells/mL) and higher Moina densities (0.3 and 0.9 ind./mL), which suggested that LSM could be more effective to defend M. macrocopa. Three-way analysis of variance showed no significant effects of algal density on population growth rate of K. tropica, but interaction between algal density and M. macrocopa density significantly affected its population growth rate.     

Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.