Uncertainty and sensitivity in a bank stability model: implications for estimating phosphorus loading

Eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems is one of the most pressing water quality concerns in the United States and around the world. Bank erosion has been largely overlooked as a source of nutrient loading, despite field studies demonstrating that this source can account for the majority of the total phosphorus load in a watershed. Substantial effort has been made to develop mechanistic models to predict bank erosion and instability in stream systems; however, these models do not account for inherent natural variability in input values. To quantify the impacts of this omission, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed on the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), a mechanistic model developed by the US Department of Agriculture – Agricultural Research Service (USDA‐ARS) that simulates both mass wasting and fluvial erosion of streambanks. Generally, bank height, soil cohesion, and plant species were found to be most influential in determining stability of clay (cohesive) banks. In addition to these three inputs, groundwater elevation, stream stage, and bank angle were also identified as important in sand (non‐cohesive) banks. Slope and bank height are the dominant variables in fluvial erosion modeling, while erodibility and critical shear stress had low sensitivity indices; however, these indices do not reflect the importance of critical shear stress in determining the timing of erosion events. These results identify important variables that should be the focus of data collection efforts while also indicating which less influential variables may be set to assumed values. In addition, a probabilistic Monte‐Carlo modeling approach was applied to data from a watershed‐scale sediment and phosphorus loading study on the Missisquoi River, Vermont to quantify uncertainty associated with these published results. While our estimates aligned well with previous deterministic modeling results, the uncertainty associated with these predictions suggests that they should be considered order of magnitude estimates only. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting gravel bed river response to environmental change: the strengths and limitations of a regime‐based approach

Rivers respond to environmental changes such as climate shifts, land use changes and the construction of hydro‐power dams in a variety of ways. Often there are multiple potential responses to any given change. Traditionally, potential stream channel response has been assessed using simple, qualitative frameworks based largely on professional judgement and field experience, or using some form of regime theory. Regime theory represents an attempt to use a physically based approach to predict the configuration of stable channels that can transport the imposed sediment supply with the available discharge. We review the development of regime theory, and then present a specific regime model that we have created as a stand‐alone computer program, called the UBC Regime Model (UBCRM). UBCRM differs from other regime models in that it constrains its predictions using a bank stability criterion, as well as a pattern stability criterion; it predicts both the stable channel cross‐sectional dimensions as well as the number of anabranches that the stream must have in order to establish a stable channel pattern. UBCRM also differs from other models in that it can be used in a stochastic modelling mode that translates uncertainty in the input variables into uncertainty in the predicted channel characteristics. However, since regime models are fundamentally based on the concept of grade, there are circumstances in which the model does not perform well. We explore the strengths and weaknesses of the UBCRM in this paper, and we attempt to illustrate how the UBCRM can be used to augment the existing qualitative frameworks, and to help guide professionals in their assessments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of riparian tree roots on the mass‐stability of riverbanks

Plants interact with and modify the processes of riverbank erosion by altering bank hydrology, flow hydraulics and bank geotechnical properties. The physically based slope stability model GWEDGEM was used to assess how changes in bank geotechnical properties due to the roots of native Australian riparian trees affected the stability of bank sections surveyed along the Latrobe River. Modelling bank stability against mass failure with and without the reinforcing effects of River Red Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) or Swamp Paperbark (Melaleuca ericifolia) indicates that root reinforcement of the bank substrate provides high levels of bank protection. The model indicates that the addition of root reinforcement to an otherwise unstable bank section can raise the factor of safety (F _s) from F _s = 1·0 up to about F _s = 1·6. The addition of roots to riverbanks improves stability even under worst‐case hydrological conditions and is apparent over a range of bank geometries, varying with tree position. Trees growing close to potential failure plane locations, either low on the bank or on the floodplain, realize the greatest bank reinforcement. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

深海弯曲水道内部一种特殊的沉积单元:凹岸坝

在深海水道研究过程中,识别出深海弯曲水道内部存在一种特殊的沉积单元--凹岸坝,基于尼日尔三角洲陆坡区浅层高频三维地震资料,利用地震相分析技术,探究了凹岸坝的沉积结构特征和形成机制,讨论了其与水道弯曲丘(nested mounds)、曲流河凹岸滩坝之间的差异。研究结果表明:凹岸坝是分布于曲率较大、以垂向加积为主的末期水道弯曲凹岸处的坝体沉积单元,该沉积单元在地震剖面上表现为强振幅、连续性较好的反射特征,其内部沉积界面倾向于水道弯曲凸岸处,倾角约1°~20°,且在凹岸弧顶处达到最大值。凹岸坝形成的关键在于惯性作用,其造成水道内部重力流流体在弯曲处发生溢岸,导致流量减少,流体动能相应降低,流体携砂能力小于沉积物负载,造成沉积物快速沉降,从而形成凹岸坝。由于凹岸坝是一种连续性较好的砂体沉积,所以其可成为潜在的、储集性能较好的油气储集体。     

Comparison of life-history parameters and effectiveness in competition with Moina macrocopa between two Keratella tropica morphs

Competition and predation are the two major biotic interactions in zooplankton community. Various rotifer species exhibit polymorphism in lorica and spine morphology in the presence of predators and competitors, which effectively increases their defence competition capacity. This study compared life-history parameters between long-spined morph (LSM) and short-spined morph (SSM) of Keratella tropica at three temperatures. The results showed that both morphs showed significantly higher intrinsic rate of population increase at 25 °C than those at 20 °C and 30 °C. The intrinsic rate of population increase was significantly lower in LSM than SSM at 25 °C and 30 °C, and the net reproductive rate was significantly lower in LSM than SSM at 30 °C. These results suggested that K. tropica had cost on development of long spines, which, however, was dependent on temperature. Moreover, the competition outcome of LSM and SSM with Moina macrocopa were investigated at three densities of Scenedesmus obliquus (0.5 × 10⁶, 1.0 × 10⁶ and 2.0 × 10⁶ cells/mL) and three initial densities of M. macrocopa (0.1, 0.3 and 0.9 ind./mL), revealing that both LSM and SSM populations decreased significantly at all tested algal densities and Moina levels. LSM showed higher population growth rate than SSM at lower algal density (0.5 × 10⁶ cells/mL) and higher Moina densities (0.3 and 0.9 ind./mL), which suggested that LSM could be more effective to defend M. macrocopa. Three-way analysis of variance showed no significant effects of algal density on population growth rate of K. tropica, but interaction between algal density and M. macrocopa density significantly affected its population growth rate.     

Assessment of geomorphological bank evolution of the alluvial threshold rivers based on entropy concept parameters

The complex stream bank profiles in alluvial channels and rivers that are formed after reaching equilibrium has been a popular topic of research for many geomorphologists and river engineers. The entropy theory has recently been successfully applied to this problem. However, the existing methods restrict the further application of the entropy parameter to determine the cross-section slope of the river banks. To solve this limitation, we introduce a novel approach in the extraction of the equation based on the calculation of the entropy parameter (λ) and the transverse slope of the bank profile at threshold channel conditions. The effects of different hydraulic and geometric parameters are evaluated on a variation of the entropy parameter. Sensitivity analysis on the parameters affecting the entropy parameter shows that the most effective parameter on the λ-slope multiplier is the maximum slope of the bank profile and the dimensionless lateral distance of the river banks.     

Plant root and rhizome strength: Are there differences between and within species and rivers?

The strength and architecture of roots and other below-ground organs of riparian and aquatic plants affect plant resistance to uprooting and contribute to reinforcing river bank, bar and bed materials. Therefore, root properties are an important element in models for estimating river bank stability and such models may focus on the role of plants by using root strength–diameter relationships for the particular plant species that are present. Here we explore the degree to which there appear to be significant differences in strength–diameter relationships between and within species-specific data sets obtained for two riparian tree/shrub (Populus nigra, Salix alba) and two emergent aquatic macrophyte (Sparganium erectum, Phalaris arundinacea) species in different European river environments. While the analysed data sets were not specifically collected to answer these research questions, the results are sufficiently compelling to make the case for the collection of a more comprehensive data set and its rigorous analysis. This would allow recommendations to be made on the degree to which (i) species-specific or more general relationships between root/rhizome strength and diameter are appropriate, (ii) such relationships are applicable within and between rivers in different geographical regions and subject to different local environmental conditions, and (iii) further (minimalist) field observations are needed to calibrate such relationships for investigations of new locales or species. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

鄂尔多斯盆地南部中寒武统张夏组颗粒滩沉积特征及控制因素*

碳酸盐岩颗粒滩是一种十分重要的油气储集体。综合野外露头剖面、岩心、测井、录井及薄片资料,对鄂尔多斯盆地南部地区中寒武统张夏组颗粒滩沉积特征、分布规律及控制因素进行分析。结果表明:研究区张夏组碳酸盐岩颗粒滩沉积广泛发育,以鲕粒滩为典型代表的颗粒滩沉积占绝对优势;颗粒滩岩性主要为颗粒石灰岩、颗粒白云岩和晶粒白云岩3种,颗粒类型主要有鲕粒、生屑、砾屑和砂屑等;颗粒滩纵向上通常表现为下细上粗的反旋回序列,多期旋回垂向叠置,形成相当厚度规模的颗粒滩沉积。结合鄂尔多斯盆地寒武纪岩相古地理特征,认为研究区颗粒滩发育特征及平面展布规律受海平面相对变化、基底古地貌及构造活动综合控制,尤其是鄂尔多斯盆地南部寒武纪近北东向裂陷槽的发育,对张夏组台地边缘带鲕粒滩发育及分布的控制作用更为显著。     

生物土壤结皮对一年生植物影响研究进展

生物土壤结皮在荒漠地区广泛分布,它的形成和演替深刻地改变了土壤表层的结构特征和理化性质,进而影响了荒漠地区一年生植物的种子传播、萌发、幼苗存活及生长过程。本文回顾了国内外有关生物土壤结皮对一年生植物影响的研究,综述了生物土壤结皮对一年生植物的土壤种子库、种子萌发、幼苗存活及生长过程的影响,分析了各研究结论中存在争议的原因,总结了生物土壤结皮对一年生植物种子传播、萌发、幼苗存活及生长影响的内在机理,指出了生物土壤结皮对荒漠地区植被组成的筛选作用,并对进一步的研究进行了展望。