赣江中游流域面雨量及吉安气象洪涝指数预报方法

介绍了赣江中游流域概况以及面雨量计算方法,并以吉安站为例,阐述了具体的流域气象涝指数预报方法。     

长江中下游旱涝的环流型与赤道东太平洋海温遥相关波列特征

根据长江中下游地区夏季旱涝年前期冬、春季北太平洋海温分布特征进行分析研究 ,提出了影响区域性旱涝的海温“强信号”概念 ;探讨了北半球大气环流结构对赤道东太平洋海温异常响应问题 ,并研究了东太平洋海温与北半球夏、春季高度偏差场季尺度相关偏差场波列结构相关特征。研究结果表明 ,赤道东太平洋海温异常可能通过低纬walker环流引起赤道西太平洋区域性大气异常运动 ,从而产生遥响应环流型 ,形成类似PNA遥相关“大圆波列”。此类遥响应特征在西太平洋区域表现出与副热带高压、西风槽、阻塞高压等相关的系统的准定常经向波列。研究结果还表明此类经向波列结构描述了中高纬地区系统对低纬异常海温遥响应的动力学特征。应用 1997～ 1998年冬季实际海温资料 ,并在赤道中东太平洋地区引入实际海温异常的敏感性试验 ,较成功地模拟了 1998年夏季长江流域洪涝的降水分布特征。文中从统计、动力分析和数值模拟综合分析方法揭示出由前期东太平洋海温异常引起的大气环流变异 ,构成中国长江流域旱涝的物理图像及其动力学模型。     

近50年四川地区旱涝时空变化特征研究

根据1961-2007年四川地区123个测站的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝等级划分标准,分析了四川地区旱涝出现的频率,采用EOF、REOF分析、趋势分析、滑动t检验以及小波分析等方法,研究了四川地区旱涝灾害发生、发展的空间演变特征及时间变化趋势。结果表明,该地区旱涝事件的空间分布可...     

6．23梧州特大洪水气象成因初探

用天气学原理，分析环流背景与天气形势，及有关的一些物理量场，指出时间相隔不长的两次持续性暴雨过程形成的洪水相叠加是造成梧州6．23特大洪水的主要原因，洪峰水位还与致洪暴雨的落区和移向有关，致洪暴雨是副高在南海北部维持和低空急流在广西上空存在等有利的天气形势下形成的。     

Relating root causes to local risk conditions: A comparative study of the institutional pathways to small-scale disasters in three urban flood contexts

The continued rise of global disaster losses pushes our attention yet further to the causal factors that drive risks, beyond the frame of standardised risk assessment models. A key gap in our understanding of the causality of disasters remains establishing how spatially and temporally distant factors – ‘root causes’ – drive local risk conditions. This is particularly the case for small-scale but high-impact disasters. It includes understanding the role that institutions play in influencing such pathways of risk production. This paper addresses this question using a holistic approach to risk analysis that links past drivers to contemporary conditions. We apply this in three case studies of coastal flood management in urban areas of differential size and integration within the European Union - Rethymno (Crete), Genoa (Italy) and St Maarten (Dutch Caribbean). The paper reveals the importance of local institutions in mediating the impacts of higher-level economic and political changes on local risks. It provides new empirical evidence of the relationship between austerity, institutional reform and local disaster risk reduction. The analysis supports a stronger causal epistemology of resilience to disasters but also leads to re-consideration of the institutional entry points for risk reduction, and the importance of considering context and trade-offs.     

全球升温控制在1.5℃和2.0℃时中国分省人口格局

《巴黎协定》正式生效, 为国际社会应对气候变化提出新的机遇与挑战,也必将对中国人口、资源和环境带来重要影响。本文结合IPCC发布的可持续发展（SSP1)、中度发展（SSP2)、局部或不一致发展（SSP3)、不均衡发展（SSP4)、常规发展（SSP5）5种共享社会经济路径,以2010年中国第六次人口普查数据为基准,综合考虑人口现状和发展政策设定不同发展路径下各省人口模型的相关参数,在全球升温控制在1.5℃和2.0℃时,对比研究中国和各省分年龄、性别、教育水平的人口演变和分布特征。结果表明：(1)全球升温1.5℃时,SSP1和SSP4路径下总人口较2010年增加0.44亿人;升温2.0℃时,SSP2和SSP3路径下较2010年分别增加0.23亿和0.67亿人,SSP5路径下减少约0.12亿人。5种路径下中国人口将在2025-2035年达到峰值,人口峰值正处于全球升温1.5℃期间。(2)全球升温1.5℃时,除了东北地区和四川、安徽省外,多数省（市）人口均较2010年有所增加;升温2.0℃时,西北、西南和以东南沿海地区为主的发达省份保持较高的人口增量,其他地区人口开始呈减少趋势。(3)在全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃期间,大部分省份人口达到峰值,其中SSP3路径下广西人口最多,可达1.13亿,其他路径下广东省人口最多,达1.53亿。(4)未来中国65岁以上老龄人口比重呈现东北高、西南低的分布特征。与全球升温1.5℃相比,升温2.0℃时的老龄化趋势进一步加重,东北地区老龄化问题最严重。采用绿色和可持续发展路径,全球升温控制在2.0℃之内是中国社会经济发展的科学选择。     

Defining and operationalizing path dependency for the development and monitoring of adaptation pathways

Adaptation pathway approaches (APAs) have become an increasingly popular means of facilitating local and regional anticipatory planning under the influence of climate change. Many studies in this field of research identify path dependencies as a key barrier to adaptation efforts. However, their respective definitions of path dependency are often vague and impede a comprehensive integration of this concept into APAs. We fill this gap by systematically exploring the constituent characteristics and conditions of path dependency based on the original theoretical literature that emerged in the 1980s and early 2000s. We then propose an operationalization based on examples of flood risk management practice, and highlight ways in which APAs may contribute to revealing and anticipating technological and institutional path dependencies. This conceptual work serves as a comprehensive and systematic baseline for analyzing path dependency in empirical studies using APAs within and beyond the flood risk context.     

春秋季环流的季节性调整对湖北省夏季洪涝的影响

洪涝是湖北省的主要气象灾害,文章在对湖北省汛期降水气候特征分析的基础上,定义出9个湖北持续性暴雨洪涝年,这些洪涝年主要发生在中国东部出现南方类或中间类雨型。通过对湖北省东部地区汛期降水与500 hPa高度场的相关分析,认为春秋季节的环流调整异常,是预测湖北省汛期降水的重要前期因子,典型洪涝年和干旱年前期3月份在55°~65°N的纬圈上,其高度距平合成显示,在130°E~120°W范围内和90°~10°W范围内距平变化相反。通过对上年春季3月、秋季10月及当年3月500 hPa高度场上环流季节性调整的分析,找出对湖北夏季降水异常偏多具有指示意义的指标,建立了湖北省夏季洪涝年的短期气候预测模型。模型首先用两个因子将大涝这种小概率事件（9/49=18%）转变为大概率事件（9/13=70%）,然后,分两步进行判断。其模型对湖北大涝年（共9年,1954,1969,1980,1983,1987,1991,1996,1998,1999年）的识别率为100%,2000~2002年预报试验结论正确。     

Design storm prediction and hydrologic modeling using a web-GIS approach on a free-software platform

The aim of this work has been to implement a set of procedures useful to automatise the evaluation, the design storm prediction and the flood discharge associated with a selected risk level. For this purpose a Geographic Information System has been implemented using Grass 5.0.One of the main topics of such a system is a georeferenced database of the highest intensity rainfalls and their assigned duration recorded in Sicily. This database contains the main characteristics for more than 250 raingauges, as well as the values of intense rainfall events recorded by these raingauges. These data are managed through the combined use of the PostgreSQL and GRASS-GIS 5.0 databases. Some of the best-known probability distributions have been implemented within the Geographical Information System in order to determine the point and/or areal rain values once duration and return period have been defined. The system also includes a hydrological module necessary to compute the probable flow, for a selected risk level, at points chosen by the user.A peculiarity of the system is the possibility to querying the model using a web-interface. The assumption is that the rising needs of geographic information, and dealing with the rising importance of peoples participation in the decision process, requires new forms for the diffusion of territorial data. Furthermore, technicians as well as public administrators needs to get customized and specialist data to support planning, particularly in emergencies. In this perspective a Web-interface has been developed for the hydrologic system. The aim is to allow remote users to access a centralized database and processing-power to serve the needs of knowledge without complex hardware/software infrastructures.