一种改进我国汛期降水预测的新思路

1998年1月赤道东太平洋海温为正异常、1月黑潮－西风漂流区海温为负异常、青藏高原冬春积雪为正异常。通过对1998年汛期降水的预测实践分析研究指出，当此三因子同时异常时，利用其中任何一个单因子都难以较好地同时预测出1998年发生在我国长江中下游和东北嫩江流域的多雨区和华北平原的少雨区。而通过EOF分解和动力模式对三因子异常进行综合集成所作的预测和实况基本一致。对多因子异常的综合集成是改进和提高汛期降水预测水平的有效手段，沿着这一新思路，利用EOF筛选出前明显异常的重要因子，选择一个较好的区域气候模式，有希望通过综合集成作出比较可信的预报。     

河南省汛期气候预测概念模型

在河南省6种雨型的基础上，分析了物理要素海温、季风、西太平洋副高及气候因子和河南省汛期降水的关系，给出了河南省汛期降水的气候预测概念模型。通过逻辑推理，可以具体预测雨型。     

Generation of Deccan Trap magmas

Deccan Trap magmas may have erupted through multiple centers, the most prominent of which may have been a shield volcano-like structure in the Western Ghats area. The lavas are predominantly tholeiitic; alkalic mafic lavas and carbonatites are rare. Radioisotope dating, magnetic chronology, and age constraints from paleontology indicate that although the eruption started some 68 Ma, the bulk of lavas erupted at around 65–66 Ma. Paleomagnetic constraints indicate an uncertainty of ± 500,000 years for peak volcanic activity at 65 m.y. in the type section of the Western Ghats. Maximum magma residence times were calculated in this study based on growth rates of “giant plagioclase” crystals in lavas that marked the end phase of volcanic activity of different magma chambers. These calculations suggest that the > 1.7 km thick Western Ghats section might have erupted within a much shorter time interval of ∼ 55,000 years, implying phenomenal eruption rates that are orders of magnitude larger than any present-day eruption rate from any tectonic environment. Other significant observations/conclusions are as follows: (1) Deccan lavas can be grouped into stratigraphic subdivisions based on their geochemistry; (2) While some formations are relatively uncontaminated others are strongly contaminated by the continental crust; (3) Deccan magmas were produced by 15–30% melting of a Fe-rich lherzolitic source at ∼ 3–2 GPa; (4) Parent magmas of the relatively uncontaminated Ambenali formation had a primitive composition with 16%MgO, 47%SiO₂; (5) Deccan magmas were generated much deeper and by significantly more melting than other continental flood basalt provinces; (6) The erupted Deccan tholeiitic lavas underwent fractionation and magma mixing at ∼ 0.2 GPa. The composition and origin of the crust and crust/mantle boundary beneath the Deccan are discussed with respect to the influence of Deccan magmatic episode.     

EVOLUTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF HYPER－CONCENTRATED FLOW IN BRAIDED CHANNEL OF THE YELLOW RIVER

ＥＶＯＬＵＴＩＯＮＡＬＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＨＹＰＥＲ－ＣＯＮＣＥＮＴＲＡＴＥＤＦＬＯＷＩＮＢＲＡＩＤＥＤＣＨＡＮＮＥＬＯＦＴＨＥＹＥＬＬＯＷＲＩＶＥＲ￥ＱＩＰｕ；ＬＩＷｅｎｘｕｅ（Ｓｅｎｉｏｒｅｎｇｉｎｅｅｒ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＨｙ...     

前汛期北江洪水过程水汽汇与河水流量的关系

本文分析了１９８０－１９８４年４－６月和１９９４年６月洪水过程北江流域的大气水汽汇特征及其与河水流量的关系。结果表明：前汛期洪水过程的前期大乞一般连续存在超过一定值的较强水汽汇，时间为１周左右，洪水的发生是强水汽汇连续产生的径流的积累所致；北江流域洪水期水汽汇的极大峰一般比石角站的洪峰流量超前２天左右，本文结果为洪水的预报提供一条新思路。     

Textural analysis and modelling of a flood deposit: River severn,U.K.

Samples of sediment collected from the Severn floodplain between Worcester and Gloucester following the severe flooding in January and February 1990, were analysed for their grain size distribution. The results show that most sand was deposited within 20 m of the channel bank, but that fine sand may contribute to flood sediment across the width of the floodplain. James' (1985) numerical model of overbank sedimentation attempts to predict the transfer of sediment to the floodplain during flooding. Geometrical and hydraulic data relating to the Severn flood are used as input for a computer program of James' (1985) model. The pattern of sediment concentrations predicted by the model was compared with that obtained from statistical analysis of the flood sediment. The patterns were found to be similar, so James' (1985) model was considered to predict in a relative sense the distribution of flood sediment.     

1991年淮河流域农村洪涝灾情分析

本文从灾害系统的概念出发,分析了1991年淮河流域苏皖地区农村洪水的雨情、水情和灾情,并探讨了这次洪水对农村造成严重灾情的原因。     

新生代黄骅坳陷构造伸展、沉积作用和岩浆活动

黄骅坳陷是一典型的张性盆地,其构造主要受西缘向东倾的拆离断层的控制。构造沉降分析显示盆地西部以裂谷沉降为主,而向东热沉降逐渐增大,反映了上地壳的强烈裂谷区与岩石圈深部强烈减薄区发生了错位。沉积作用在裂谷期和热沉降期具明显不同的特点,指示了早期基底快速不均匀的下沉和晚期基底广泛缓慢下沉的过程。玄武岩的形成和演化也与盆地构造发展过程相一致。研究结果表明,黄骅坳陷是在下伏岩石圈上部发生简单剪切和下部发生纯剪切的构造伸展过程中形成的。     

Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.