ON SOME KEY SEDIMENTATION PROBLEMS OF THREE GORGES PROJECT (TGP)

I. INTRODUCTIONThe Three Gorges Project (TGP) being planned is to be located on the Yangtze River at Sandouplug, 44 km upstream of Yichang (Fig. l). A scheme studied in the feasibility stage has the crest ofthe dam placed at 185 m with a maximums height o…     

物理过程和分辨率对西南涡演变的中尺度模拟影响

本文运用PSU/NCAR中尺度模式第四改进型(MM_4),对“81.7”四川暴雨期西南涡的演变进行了一系列96和72小时数值模拟;其目的在于研究模式物理过程和空间分辨率以及行星边界层(PBL)参数化对西南涡生成和发展模拟的影响。96小时的控制试验(方案Ⅰ)结果表明:水平分辨率160km和总体PBL的10层MM_4对西南涡发展模拟得较好,但对其生成只有初步模拟的能力;各种物理过程主要影响西南涡演变的强度,而对其位置影响较小;去掉潜热释放会显著影响西南涡在后期的发展;没有地面通量将使西南涡的生成和发展强度明显减弱;于试验不能模拟出西南涡在整个暴雨期的发展,且使其移速略快,无摩擦试验指出,地面摩擦对西南涡的生成是不重要的。提高模式空间分辨率和采用高分辨PBL模式,能使西南涡生成和发展位置的模拟有明显改进,但其强度一般偏强于实况。事实表明,进一步完善模式物理过程、改进PBL参数化和提高模式空间分辨率将是十分必要的。     

Channel and floodplain response to recent abrupt climate change: The tyne basin,Northern England

This paper examines the timing, nature and magnitude of river response in upland, piedmont and lowland reaches of the Tyne basin, northern England, to high-frequency (20–30 year) changes in climate and flood regime since 1700 AD. Over this period fluvial activity has been characterized by alternating phases of river-bed incision and stability coinciding with non-random, decadal-scale fluctuations in flood frequency and hydroclimate that appear to be linked to changes in large-scale upper atmospheric circulation patterns. Episodes of widespread channel bed incision (1760–1799, 1875–1894, 1955–1969) result from a higher frequency of large floods (> 20 year return period) and cool, wet climate under meridional circulation regimes. Phases of more moderate floods (5–20 year return period), corresponding to zonal circulation types (1820–1874, 1920–1954), are characterized by enhanced lateral reworking and sediment transfer in upper reaches of the catchment, and channel narrowing and infilling downstream. Rates of fluvial activity are reduced in intermediate periods (1800–1819, 1895–1919) with no dominant circulation regime associated with lower flood frequency and magnitude. The results of this study provide a valuable guide for forecasting probable drainage basin and channel response to future climate change.     

云南元谋干热河谷土地退化及其防治对策*

本文探讨了云南元谋干热河谷土地退化的特点、分布及其危害,提出了加强基础教育、控制人口增长、改革耕作制度、继续农业基础设施建设、因地制宜发展林业和农业等于热河谷土地退化防治对策。     

1823 年(清道光三年)我国特大水灾及影响

该文对道光三年（1823年）长江下游与华北的严重洪水概况及其对社会经济的影响作了初步探讨，并对这次洪水发生的原因及灾害形成的机制也作了分析，认为了解这次洪水及其产生的影响对于我国减灾战略的制订有重要参考价值。     

Observations of desert flood bores

Flood bores have been measured in desert stream floods. The bores were steep and small pebbles were observed to be pushed ahead. Bore velocity changed downstream and was controlled by local channel geometry. In narrow reaches, the bore advanced at rates twice those of wide reaches. Mean bore velocity was about 50 per cent of that of mean flow at peak flood discharge. The surfaces of shallow bores were covered by air foams. This was not the case in deeper, faster examples.     

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

运用人工神经网络作汛期降水预报

本文提出汛期降水预报的人工神经网络方法，并选择一组标样进行了具体分析，预报成功率达100％，结果表明，该方法性能良好，可望成为汛期降水预报的有效手段。     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.