城市热岛强度的数值试验

本文从大气热力—动力学方程出发,导出形式较为简单的热岛分析解,通过数值试验,讨论了城市热岛强度与影响因子(如平均风速,城市加热量,摩擦效应和大气稳定度等)之间的关系。     

Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. G. Artan, J. L. Smith and K. Asante – work performed under USGS contract 03CRCN0001.     

Stratigraphic correlation of the Awahab and Tafelberg Formations, Etendeka Group, Namibia, and location of an eruptive site for flood basalt volcanism

Detailed field and geochemical investigations in the vicinity of the type section of the Tafelberg Formation of the early Cretaceous Etendeka Group, NW Namibia, have revealed the existence of a large eruptive vent in the lower part of the regional volcanic sequence produced by Strombolian and Vulcanian eruptions. The vent is filled with the thick, differentiated, ponded Kudu-Run olivine-rich basaltic flow, which has a distinctive low Zr/Y geochemical signature as well as a Tafelberg-type tabular basalt and the Nil Desperandum latite. Field evidence indicates that the Kudu-Run basalt and the latite were erupted from fissures located within the vent. Associated with the vent is an extensive pyroclastic apron extending from the vent edge and which is interbedded with the regional stratigraphy. Blocks of Precambrain basement lithologies occur within this deposit and indicate that the vent was excavated to a depth of at least 350 m below the palaeosurface at that time. The original Tafelberg Formation type section described by Erlank et al. [Erlank, A.J., Marsh, J.S., Duncan, A.R., Miller, R.McG., Hawkesworth, C.H., Betton, P.J., Rex, D.C. 1984. Geochemistry and petrogenesis of the Etendeka volcanic rocks from SWA/Namibia, 195–247. In: Erlank, A.J. (Ed.), Petrogenesis of Volcanic Rocks of the Karoo province. Special Publication of the Geological Society of South Africa, vol. 13, 395 p.] the Tafelberg Gully section, crosses from the lower part of the regional sequence into the intra-vent sequence and returns to the regional sequence higher up. In doing so it includes some of the localized intra-vent flows and excludes a number of flows which are part of the regional sequence in its lower part, thus rendering it inappropriate as a type section. A revised type section for the Tafelberg Formation is described by combining the upper part of the Tafelberg Gully section with a new section of 14 flows at the base of the regional sequence in the Tafelberg North (TBN) section some 2 km N of the Tafeleberg Gully. Distinctive flows in the TBN section can be mapped southwards where their precise stratigraphic relationship to the northward-thinning Springbok and Goboboseb Quarts Latite members of the Awahab Formation can be demonstrated. These stratigraphic relationships are entirely consistent with palaeomagnetic reversal stratigraphy and demonstrate that the same N–R–N polarity sequence occurs in the type sections of the Awahab and Tafelberg formations. Thus, the Awahab and Tafelberg magma systems were contemporaneous but the Tafelberg system outlived that of the Awahab. The Awahab system was built from eruptive centres located S of the Huab River whereas the Tafelberg vents were located further north.     

Recent changes in flood risk in the Gran La Plata,Buenos Aires province,Argentina: causes and management strategy

The paper analyses the causes of flood occurrence in the Gran La Plata, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, and the changes that have occurred since the 1970s. The area is characterized by serious deficiencies in the use and management of water resources. The main factors are: (1) flood risk information is not updated; (2) urban building organization does not consider the flood risk; (3) the topography and other physical features are not taken into account in urban development. This research considers some specific problems, especially in data availability, and suggests ways to solve them, including improved analytical methodology. One of the main objectives is to analyse flood risk in social terms, producing a map of flood risk from the “human social vulnerability” point of view. The results suggest that flood risk has increased since the 1980s and that this is associated with changes in precipitation patterns that have also been aggravated by lack of controls on urban development. The poorer areas with the lowest level of infrastructure and public services, many of them developed over the last quarter-century, are especially vulnerable.     

An innovative methodology for the prioritization of sub-catchments for flood control

Iran is dominated by arid and semi-arid climate with sporadic rainfall which creates seasonal floods and causes considerable damages and occasionally loss of life. The current research with the aim of flood damage reduction presents an innovative applied methodology for spatial optimization of flood control measures based on sub-catchments location. The presented methodology determines the contribution of each sub-catchment to the main catchment outlet flood peak and prioritizes sub-catchments for implementation of flood control measures. For this purpose catchment flood hydrographs are simulated by calibration and evaluation of a hydrologic model. The isochrones of the catchment have been computed and drawn and sub-catchment spatial distribution is investigated in relation to isochronal areas. Considering both spatial distribution and flooding potential of sub-catchments and their combined effects on the flood peak, their contribution to flood peak was modified by implementing flood control measure. Testing of this methodology on an experimental catchment indicated that sub-catchments located near the centroid of the catchment with an area of 64.6 km² have the greatest effects on flood peak for the overall catchment with an area of 284.6 km². It was concluded that flood control measures should be concentrated in these sub-catchments as the first priority.     

Detecting thermal boundary control in surface flows from numerical dynamos

The geomagnetic field and secular variation exhibit asymmetrical spatial features which are possibly originating from an heterogeneous thermal control of the Earth's lower mantle on the core. The identification of this control in magnetic data is subject to several difficulties, some of which can be alleviated by the use of core surface flow models. Using numerical dynamos driven by heterogeneous boundary heat flux, we confirm that within the parameter space accessible to simulations, time average surface flows obey a simple thermal wind equilibrium between the Coriolis and buoyancy forces, the Lorentz, inertial and viscous forces playing only a secondary role, even for Elsasser numbers significantly larger than 1. Furthermore, we average the models over the duration of three vortex turnovers, and correlate them with a longer time average which fully reveals the signature of boundary heterogeneity. This allows us to quantify the possibility of observing mantle control in core surface flows averaged over a short time period. A scaling analysis is performed in order to apply the results to the Earth's core. We find that three vortex turnovers could represent between 100 and 360 years of Earth time, and that the heat flux heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary could be large enough to yield an observable signature of thermal mantle control in a time average core surface flow within reach of the available geomagnetic data.     

基于MODIS的鄱阳湖区水体水灾遥感影像图制作

 提出了利用空间分辨率为250 m的MODIS影像第1、2波段数据制作水体遥感影像图、水体变化遥感影像图和水灾遥感影像图的方法。对鄱阳湖区的遥感影像图制作实例表明，该方法不仅具有快速、简便和易于操作等优点，还能有效保留MODIS的空间分辨率，较清晰地识别水体和洪水，可用于水灾的遥感动态监测与制图。     

渭河下游"03"洪水对河道冲淤及河势变化的影响

2003年汛期渭河下游出现了自1981年以来的较大洪水,成阳、临潼、华县洪峰流量分别为5340、5100、3570 m3/s,其洪峰水位达历史最高,洪水过程首尾相接,六次洪水过程造成干支流堤防决口11处,洪灾损失极其严重.着重分析了"03"洪水对渭河下游河道冲淤及河势变化带来的影响.     

An estimation of the probable maximum precipitation for river basins in the Czech Republic

The hydro-meteorological evaluation of a flood event in July 1997 (the Odra flood in Central Europe) demonstrated that new procedures to estimate design floods for the reservoir outflow structures in the Czech Republic (CR) were needed. Therefore, the techniques of the estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) were developed in a national research project (1998–2000), and the activity focused on the improvement of the area related PMP estimates was going on within a present national project. In the frame of the evaluation of the next extreme precipitation event in August 2002 (the Labe flood in the CR and Germany), we compared the catchments related precipitation with the PMP estimates. In this paper, an outline of the PMP estimation techniques is given and the use of data from the Czech gauges is described, the aim being the statistical derivation of the point and area PMP estimates for precipitation duration of 1 to 5 days. The use of radar data in assessing the maximized area reduction factor is discussed and the relationship resulting from the radar measurements over the CR territory is presented. An evaluation of the radar-based area rainfall enabled us to transform the point PMP to the area PMP estimate designed for the river basins in CR. In the last part of the paper, the results obtained by comparing the rainfalls in 1997 and 2002 flood events with the PMP estimates are presented. The comparison showed that the maximum area rainfalls over small Czech catchments (the 3rd order river basins) did not exceed 63% of the corresponding PMP values.     

松花江、嫩江洪水等级划分标准及规律分析

松花江（哈尔滨江段）、嫩洒（江桥站）洪水可划分成５个等级。第Ⅰ级为无洪水,又可分为２个副级,即１ａ级为中水,１ｂ级为枯水;第２组为警戒洪水;第３级为一般洪水;第４级为大洪水;第５级为特大洪水。各级划分是采用流体力学能量方程,位能与动力之各用Ｅ指数表示,再将Ｅ值按Ｐ－Ⅲ型分布将其密度函数转换成Ｚ指数,按Ｚ值正态分布特点划分洪水等级。松花江在９８年中共发生过１９次洪水,嫩江在４７年中共发生过１０次洪水