全文获取类型
收费全文 | 927篇 |
免费 | 54篇 |
国内免费 | 60篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 86篇 |
大气科学 | 161篇 |
地球物理 | 227篇 |
地质学 | 348篇 |
海洋学 | 55篇 |
天文学 | 17篇 |
综合类 | 36篇 |
自然地理 | 111篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 3篇 |
2023年 | 5篇 |
2022年 | 14篇 |
2021年 | 16篇 |
2020年 | 30篇 |
2019年 | 21篇 |
2018年 | 14篇 |
2017年 | 22篇 |
2016年 | 19篇 |
2015年 | 30篇 |
2014年 | 48篇 |
2013年 | 39篇 |
2012年 | 32篇 |
2011年 | 52篇 |
2010年 | 47篇 |
2009年 | 45篇 |
2008年 | 61篇 |
2007年 | 64篇 |
2006年 | 45篇 |
2005年 | 46篇 |
2004年 | 23篇 |
2003年 | 47篇 |
2002年 | 35篇 |
2001年 | 27篇 |
2000年 | 28篇 |
1999年 | 45篇 |
1998年 | 37篇 |
1997年 | 33篇 |
1996年 | 19篇 |
1995年 | 22篇 |
1994年 | 19篇 |
1993年 | 19篇 |
1992年 | 5篇 |
1991年 | 12篇 |
1990年 | 6篇 |
1989年 | 5篇 |
1988年 | 2篇 |
1987年 | 1篇 |
1985年 | 1篇 |
1982年 | 1篇 |
1978年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1041条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
101.
F. Francés 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1998,12(4):267-283
Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason,
the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean
rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV.
The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the
statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease
the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station,
is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis. 相似文献
102.
PREDICTINGRESERVOIRSEDIMENTATIONWITH2DMODELFLOODSIMW.BECHTELER1andM.NUJIC2ABSTRACTPredictionofsedimentationisveryimportantbef... 相似文献
103.
1INTRODUCTIONTheBrahmaputraRiveroriginatesfromtheJimayanzhongglacieratthenorthfootoftheHimalayaMountainsinSouthTibet,China.I... 相似文献
104.
大型天然水体的环境效应研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
柴贺军 《地质灾害与环境保护》1998,9(2):7-12
结合典型实例,论述大型天然水体--堰塞湖从形成到消亡过程中产生的灾害链和环境效应链,包括堰塞湖的淹没、边岸再造、堰塞沉积物、次生洪水、永久性不良地质环境的灾害和环境效应对人民生命财产的威胁,以及对水利水电、航运、公路和铁路工程的不良影响。 相似文献
105.
The regional dynamical model of the atmospheric ozonosphere 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
TheRegionalDynamicalModeloftheAtmosphericOzonosphereWangWeiguo(王卫国),XieYingqi(谢应齐)DepartmentofEarthscience.YunnanUniversity,K... 相似文献
106.
Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV. 相似文献
107.
Alex Y. Lo 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1249-1257
Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context. 相似文献
108.
Alan D. Howard 《水文研究》1990,4(4):373-385
The effects of variations of drainage basin morphometry and relief characteristics on flood peak magnitude and time-to-peak are investigated using simulated stream networks. The networks are produced by three models: headward growth, systematic capture, and minimum power relaxation. Translational and kinematic wave flood routing were used to generate synthetic hydrographs. Peak discharge and time-to-peak are predictable to a high degree by five different sets of morphometric-relief parameters. In order of decreasing order of importance in predictive ability the parameters characterize basin size, relative relief, basin concavity, and basin shape. Both simulated and natural stream networks exhibit strong dependence of planimetric morphometry upon basin concavity. The effect of this dependency is to increase the effect of basin concavity upon flood hydrographs. 相似文献
109.
《Marine Policy》2015
Substandard vessels that fail to comply with international maritime regulations are the target of Port State Control inspections. Despite their significant costs, many inspections do not lead to any detentions and, in a significant number of cases, no deficiencies are detected. In this paper, quantile regressions for count data are used to estimate the likelihood of having a high number of deficiencies of a specific type. The purpose is to complement existing practices focusing on detention with the objective to improve the selection process. Similar factors influence the likelihood of having a vessel detained and that of having a vessel recording a high number of deficiencies. However, quantile regressions applied to the number of deficiencies help improving the identification of factors influencing the likelihood of finding some specific types of deficiencies, which is the focus of Concentrated Inspection Campaigns. The paper concludes that the selection process for such campaigns should be improved using this new methodology. 相似文献
110.
At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth. 相似文献