Impact of Assimilating Radiances with the WRFDA ETKF/3DVAR Hybrid System on Prediction of Two Typhoons in 2012

The impacts of AMSU-A and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) radiances assimila-tion on the prediction of typhoons Vicente and Saola (2012) are studied by using the ensemble transform ...     

龙门山中段中央断裂和前山断裂的晚新生代垂向活动性差异及其构造意义

2008汶川地震之后,多个研究组对龙门山的新生代剥蚀历史进行了研究,但是在龙门山推覆构造带中段,剥蚀历史研究主要集中在彭灌杂岩,而彭灌杂岩东侧(即中央断裂下盘)的热年代学资料相对缺乏,其剥蚀历史还比较模糊.对于彭灌杂岩东侧岩体的新生代剥蚀历史研究,不仅可以了解龙门山推覆构造带的新生代断层活动历史,而且对于青藏高原东缘的新生代隆升机制具有重要约束作用.在前人热年代学研究基础上,在龙门山推覆构造带中段中央断裂和前山断裂附近补充了一些裂变径迹样品.采用外探测器法(external detector method)对样品进行裂变径迹分析,实验测试在台湾中正大学裂变径迹实验室完成.实验获得了6个锆石裂变径迹和6个磷灰石裂变径迹年龄.前山断裂上盘,AFT(磷灰石裂变径迹)年龄以小鱼洞断裂为界存在明显的差异,其中小鱼洞断裂以南的样品AFT年龄为39 Ma,小鱼洞断裂以北的4个AFT年龄介于6—8 Ma之间.研究揭示出中央断裂和前山断裂的新生代活动性以NW向小鱼洞断裂为界存在较大差异:距今8 Ma以来,小鱼洞断裂以北,中央断裂和前山断裂的平均垂向滑动速率分别为约0.1 mm·a-1和约0.55 mm·a-1;小鱼洞断裂以南,平均垂向滑动速率则分别为约0.55 mm·a-1和约0.1 mm·a-1.低温热年代学方法获得的断层新生代垂向滑动速率与汶川地震断层垂向同震位移分布基本一致.前山断裂(小鱼洞断裂以北)距今8 Ma以来北西-南东向水平缩短量达到8~12 km,表明地壳缩短是造成龙门山抬升和剥蚀的重要因素之一.本研究结论不支持下地壳增厚模型对于龙门山隆升的解释.     

Low-temperature constraints on the Alpine thermal evolution of the Western Carpathian basement rock complexes

The Cretaceous to Palaeogene Alpine exhumation of previously buried Variscan basements is recorded in the southern portion of the Western Carpathians in the Gemeric and Veporic units. The Meso-Cenozoic collisional processes resulted in basement exhumation of the Tatric Unit from Palaeogene to Neogene times. According to zircon and apatite fission track data, the Gemeric Unit, an uppermost thick-skinned thrust sheet, cooled from depth levels of ∼10 up to 2.5 km (temperature interval of ∼250–60 °C) about 88–64 Ma ago, after the collapse of overlying Meliata-Turňa-Silica Mesozoic accretionary prism. The middle and lower thick-skinned thrust sheets, Veporic and Tatric units, cooled from the depths of ∼10 up to 2.5 km ∼110–40 Ma ago. The process was controlled by unroofing of footwall from beneath the Gemeric Unit. About 50–20 Ma ago, the internal zone of Tatric Unit gradually exhumed to depth of <2 km and some parts of the unit appeared at the surface level. However, the external zone of Tatric Unit was buried beneath the Eocene to Lower Miocene sedimentary successions and exhumed to the subsurface level at ∼21–8 Ma ago, as a result of oblique collision of the Western Carpathians with the European Platform.     

New dinosaur tracks from Korea, Ornithopodichnus masanensis ichnogen. et ichnosp. nov. (Jindong Formation, Lower Cretaceous): implications for polarities in ornithopod foot morphology

Twelve trackways of ornithopods from Lower Cretaceous lacustrine margin deposits of the Jindong Formation represent new dinosaur trackways described from Korea. The site, discovered during highway construction, was rescued by removing the most important trackways to the Korean Natural Heritage Center in Daejeon, where they are on permanent display. The new ichnotaxon Ornithopodichnus masanensis ichnogen. et ichnosp. nov. is recognized as a distinctive robust tridactyl track, slightly wider than long (l/w ratio = 0.91), with positive (inward) rotation. The toe prints are very thick, broad and U-shaped, resulting in a trefoil outline with a smoothly rounded hind margin. Digit III is short and projects anteriorly much less than digit II and IV (= weak mesaxony). Divarication of digits II-IV is about 70° with interdigital angle II-III larger than III-IV. Trackway width is narrow and the stride length/track length ratio is about 4.2–4.6. The Ornithopodichnus trackways evidently represent gregarious blunt-toed Iguanodon-like bipedal ornithopods, although poorly preserved manus traces are discerned in a few trackways. Ornithopodichnus is distinct from other well known iguanodontid tracks that display much stronger mesaxony and indicates a polarity in ornithopod foot morphology that can be verified by reference to known foot skeletons.     

矿床保存变化研究的热年代学技术方法

成矿后矿床的保存与变化是矿床地质研究的重要组成部分,但研究程度不高,至今仍属于薄弱环节。矿床的保存与其隆升剥露密切相关,深入细致研究恢复矿区矿床的隆升和剥露历史,是揭示矿床保存变化的一种重要途径。本文重点论述研究矿床保存变化的技术方法,通过综合应用裂变径迹、（U-Th）/He、40Ar-39Ar年代学以及La-ICP-MS、锆石U-Pb定年等多种技术手段,研究成矿期次、构造活动期次以及二者间的联系,定量计算不同矿区、不同矿体、不同部位、不同时间的冷却隆升速率、隆升幅度、剥蚀速率和剥蚀量,探讨矿床保存深度与剥蚀量间的关系,总结不同时代、不同矿区矿床保存-变化过程,建立新的矿床地质-保存环境模型,完善矿床预测的综合示踪标志,最终预测不同矿区、不同地段隐伏矿床可能的产出深度,给出矿床可能已经被剥蚀殆尽的区段或地段,为深部找矿和区域成矿潜力评价提供依据。本文可为地质工作者的相关应用提供借鉴和手段。     

A Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones over East Asia During 1958–2001

A climatology of extratropical cyclones (ECs) over East Asia (20 -75 N, 60 -160 E) is analyzed by applying an improved objective detection and tracking algorithm to the 4-time daily sea level pressure fields from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. A total of 12914 EC processes for the period of 1958-2001 are identified, with an EC database integrated and EC activities reanalyzed using the objective algorithm. The results reveal that there are three major cyclogenesis regions: West Siberian Plain, Mongolia (to the south of Lake Baikal), and the coastal region of East China; whereas significant cyclolysis regions are observed in Siberia north of 60 N, Northeast China, and Okhotsk Sea-Northwest Pacific. It is found that the EC lifetime is largely 1-7 days while winter ECs have the shortest lifespan. The ECs are the weakest in summer among the four seasons. Strong ECs often appear in West Siberia, Northeast China, and Okhotsk Sea-Northwest Pacific. Statistical analysis based on k-means clustering has identified 6 dominating trajectories in the area south of 55 N and east of 80 E, among which 4 tracks have important impacts on weather/climate in China. ECs occurring in spring (summer) tend to travel the longest (shortest). They move the fastest in winter, and the slowest in summer. In winter, cyclones move fast in Northeast China, some areas of the Yangtze-Huaihe River region, and the south of Japan, with speed greater than 15 m s 1 . Explosively-deepening cyclones are found to occur frequently along the east coast of China, Japan, and Northwest Pacific, but very few storms occur over the inland area. Bombs prefer to occur in winter, spring, and autumn. Their annual number and intensity in 1990 and 1992 in East Asia (EA) are smaller and weaker than their counterparts in North America.     

在台风业务系统中使用卫星云导风资料的试验

在国家气象中心台隐数值预报业务系统中引入国家卫星气象中心提供的卫星云导风资料,进行两项预报试验。第一项是把卫星云导风资料作为观测资料进行最优插值客观分析;第二项是将云导风资料加入到轴对称的人造台风模型风场上,使之产生非对称风场。试验结果表明：卫星云导风资料作为观测资料进入模式后对减小台风路径预报误差效果明显;用云导风形成人造台风模型非对称风场可进一步提高台风路径预报精度。     

相山铀矿田铀多金属成矿时代与成矿热历史

相山铀矿田的铀多金属矿化主要可划分为碱性铀矿化、酸性铀矿化、铅锌银铜矿化和金矿化四种类型。通过沥青铀矿和矿化岩石U-Pb等时线、黄铁矿Rb-Sr等时线、绢云母~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar同位素年龄测定,结合铀多金属成矿特征研究,厘定了相山铀矿田铀多金属成矿时代,确定铀多金属矿化的成矿时序为:碱性铀矿化、铅锌银铜矿化、金矿化、酸性铀矿化。锆石裂变径迹研究表明,相山矿田铀多金属矿化样品的锆石裂变径迹峰值年龄与U-Pb、Rb-Sr和~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar同位素年龄一致性良好,裂变径迹年龄(峰值年龄)可以限定热液铀多金属成矿热事件时代。碱性铀成矿热事件的锆石裂变径迹峰值年龄为119. 8～125. 6Ma;金成矿热事件和铅锌银铜多金属成矿热事件的锆石裂变径迹峰值年龄为106. 1～113. 8Ma;酸性铀成矿热事件的锆石裂变径迹峰值年龄为86. 7～100. 0Ma;新发现一期锆石裂变径迹峰值年龄为66. 4～78. 6Ma的热事件,该期热事件可能为相山矿田最晚一期酸性铀成矿热事件。相山矿田66. 4～78. 6Ma的铀成矿热事件,与华南花岗岩型热液铀矿床的区域成矿热事件时代耦合,该发现对华南火山岩型铀矿成矿时代的重新认识,对火山岩型、花岗岩型铀矿床成矿统一性认识具有重要意义。     

北半球冬季风暴轴与ENSO循环的关系及其能量平衡特征

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的再分析资料,分析了北半球冬季对流层上层300 hPa面上风暴轴与ENSO循环的关系以及风暴轴的能量平衡特征.研究表明,由于El Nino年北太平洋的哈德莱环流增强,导致北太平洋西风急流向赤道和向东伸展,进而引起了北太平洋风暴轴的增强并向赤道和向东伸展;而La Nina年事件期间情形正好相反.在北大西洋,El Nino年其西风急流中心最大值有所减小,但整个西风急流区域有所扩大并向西和向赤道伸展,相应北大西洋风暴轴强度在El Nino年也有所减弱并向西和向赤道方向伸展;La Nina事件的情形正好相反.能量分析表明,斜压转换的正值中心位于风暴轴及其上游区域.在El Nino年,北太平洋斜压转换的正值中心向赤道和向下游伸展,而北大西洋斜压转换的正值中心向赤道和向西伸展,这与北太平洋风暴轴和北大西洋风暴的变化趋势是一致的.行星尺度扰动对斜压转换的贡献比天气尺度扰动的贡献要小,而行星尺度-天气尺度扰动的相互作用项对斜压转换的贡献更小.研究还表明,能量正压转换的正中心化于风暴轴的上游,负中心位于风暴轴区域.相对于La Nina年,El Nino年北太平洋东部的正压转换负值中心偏北,北美的正值中心位置偏南,而北大西洋的负值中心强度减弱范围变小.这些变化与从La Nina年剑El Nino年北太平洋和北大西洋风暴轴的变化是一致的.在能量的正压转换过程中,天气尺度扰动的贡献要大于行星尺度扰动,而行星尺度-天气尺度扰动的相互作用项的贡献更小.     

相似路径热带气旋“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)暴雨对比分析

一般认为相似路径台风的影响大致相似,但实际上相似路径台风的风雨分布尤其是暴雨分布往往有很大差异,因此,对相似路径热带气旋“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)暴雨成因的对比分析有助于加强台风暴雨发生机制的认识和预报。“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)逐日降水分布对比分析表明,两者登陆前降水分布类似,而登陆后降水分布差异比较大。利用NCEP/GFS 1 °×1 °分析资料对热带气旋登陆前后天气形势、水汽通量和水汽通量散度进行诊断分析,结果表明：“海棠”(0505)和“碧利斯”(0604)登陆前引起浙闽沿海地区大降水主要是热带气旋外围偏东气流和地形共同影响下形成。“海棠”登陆后,维持在浙江东部沿海东南风急流不断输送水汽到“海棠”倒槽内引起浙东南沿海强降水,深入内陆后,降水主要由“海棠”自身环流携带的水汽辐合引起的,降水比沿海地区明显减弱;而“碧利斯”登陆后,有明显的南海季风环流输送水汽并入热带气旋南侧环流,在其南侧形成偏南风急流,使南侧水汽输送得到明显加强,造成“碧利斯”南侧水汽通量辐合,北侧水汽通量辐散,南侧降水比北侧降水强很多;深入内陆后,“碧利斯”环流仍维持并引导北方槽后弱冷空气渗透到其西南侧,使南侧降水进一步增幅。本文还探讨了包括热带气旋外核在内区域平均垂直风切变和热带气旋强降水落区的关系,结果表明：“海棠”和“碧丽斯”大暴雨落区均对应于暴雨区区域平均垂直风切矢量左侧水汽通量散度负值区。“海棠”垂直风切变矢量平行于移动路径并指向移动路径后方是造成“海棠”强降水分布在其移动路径右侧的重要原因,“碧利斯”垂直风切变矢量平行于移动路径并指向移动路径前方是造成“碧利斯”强降水分布在其移动路径左侧的重要原因。因此,利用垂直风切结合水汽输送条件可以作热带气旋大暴雨落区预报可能是一种比较有效的方法。