1951—2017年热带气旋移动速度特征统计分析

热带气旋移动速度是目前热带气旋研究热点之一。本文利用1951—2017年中国国家气象局最佳路径集资料,系统分析了西北太平洋海域热带气旋不同强度等级移动速度的年代际特征,初步探讨其原因,并对不同强度等级移动速度的分布特征进行系统诊断。结果表明,1951—2017年间平均移动速度(所有强度等级平均及对于大部分强度等级)呈现出减慢趋势,且主要体现在强热带气旋等级移动速度减慢;热带气旋向高纬度迁移趋势理论上将使移动速度增大而移动速度仍然减慢,说明气候因素是引起移动速度减慢的一个重要因素;不同强度等级平均移动速度、增强阶段基本相当,减弱阶段随强度减弱在初、中期明显增加,之后又逐渐减小,变性气旋移动速度显著增加;不同强度等级速度概率分布,增强阶段基本相同且相对集中,减弱阶段差异较大且相对分散,变性气旋最为分散。     

Northward cooling of the Kuncha nappe and downward heating of the Lesser Himalayan autochthon distributed to the south of Mt. Annapurna,western central Nepal

We investigated the tectonothermal history of the Lesser Himalayan sediments (LHS), which are tectonically overlain by the Higher Himalayan Crystalline. Fission‐track dating and the track length measurement of detrital zircons obtained from the Kuncha nappe and the Lesser Himalayan autochthonous sediments in western central Nepal revealed northward cooling of the nappe and possible downward heating of the autochthon by the overlying hot nappe. Nine zircon fission‐track (ZFT) ages of the nappe showed northward‐younging linear distribution from 11.6 Ma in the front at Tamghas, 6 Ma in the central at Naudanda, and 1.6 Ma in the northernmost point at Tatopani. Thermochronological invert calculation of the ZFT length elucidated that the Kuncha nappe gradually cooled down (30 °C/Myr) at the front and rapidly cooled down (120 °C/Myr) at the root zone. In contrast, the ZFT age of the Chappani Formation, located just beneath the Kuncha nappe in the central part, demonstrated a totally reset age of 6.8 Ma, whereas the Virkot Formation, structurally far from the nappe, yielded a partially reset age of 457.3 Ma. This suggests that the LHS underwent downward heating, resulting in a thermal print on the upper part of the LHS; however, the thermal effect was not sufficient to anneal ZFT totally in the deeper part. Presently, the nappe cover is eroded and denuded from this area. Detrital zircons from the Chappani Formation in Tansen area to the south of the Bari Gad Fault did not show any evidence of annealing, suggesting that nappe never covered the LHS distributed to the south of the fault.     

Northward younging zircon fission‐track ages from 13 to 2 Ma in the eastern extension of the Kathmandu nappe and underlying Lesser Himalayan sediments distributed to the south of Mt. Everest

This study is concerned with the tectono‐thermal history of the Kathmandu nappe and the underlying Lesser Himalayan sediments (LHS) that are distributed in eastern Nepal. We carried out zircon fission‐track(ZFT) dating and obtained 16 ZFT ages from the eastern extension of the Kathmandu nappe, the Higher Himalayan Crystalline, Kuncha nappe, and the Main Central Thrust (MCT) zone. The ZFT ages of the frontal part of the Kathmandu nappe range from 13.0 ±0.8 Ma to 10.7 ±0.7 Ma and exhibit a northward‐younging tendency. These Middle Miocene ZFT ages indicate that the frontal part of the Kathmandu nappe remained at a temperature above 240 °C until the termination of its southward emplacement at 12–11 Ma. The ZFT ages of the LHS range from 11.1 ±0.9 Ma in the southern part of the Okhaldhunga Window to 2.4 ±0.3 Ma of the augen gneiss in the northern margin and also exhibit a northward‐younging age distribution. The ZFT ages show the northward‐younging linear distribution pattern (?0.16 Ma/km) along the across‐strikesection from the frontal part of the Kathmandu nappe to the root zone, without a significant age gap. This distribution pattern indicates that the Kathmandu nappe, the underlying MCT zone, and the Kuncha nappe cooled from the frontal zone to the root zone as a thermally united geologic body at a temperature below 240 °C. An older ZFT age (456.3 ±24.3 Ma), which was partially reset at the axial part of the Midland anticlinorium in the central part of the Okhaldhunga Window, was explained by downward heating from the “hot” Kathmandu nappe. The above evidence supported a model that southward emplacement of the hot Kathmandu nappe resulted in a thermal imprint on the upper part of the LHS; however, the lower part did not reach 240 °C.     

日喀则弧前盆地的埋藏和剥蚀历史——来自低温热年代学的约束

日喀则弧前盆地紧邻印度板块与欧亚大陆碰撞带,研究其剥蚀历史对理解印度板块与欧亚大陆碰撞对造山带剥蚀的影响具有重要意义。文中利用磷灰石裂变径迹(AFT)及锆石和磷灰石的(U-Th)/He(ZHe和AHe)年龄数据,结合已发表的低温热年代数据探讨日喀则弧前盆地的热演化和剥露历史。日喀则弧前盆地磷灰石裂变径迹年龄存在明显的南北差异,南部磷灰石裂变径迹年龄为74～44Ma,对应的剥蚀速率为0. 03～0. 1km/Ma,剥蚀量≤2km;北部磷灰石裂变径迹年龄为27～15Ma,剥蚀速率为0. 09～0. 29km/Ma,但缺失早新生代的热演化历史。而磷灰石的(U-Th)/He年龄表明15Ma BP之后日喀则弧前盆地整体呈现一致的剥露历史。低温热年代数据表明日喀则弧前盆地南部自新生代以来尽管受到印度板块与欧亚大陆碰撞及后期断层活动的影响,海拔由海平面抬升至4. 2km,但一直保持缓慢的剥蚀,表明高原隆升并未直接促使该地区的岩石剥蚀速率加快,这与快速剥蚀即代表造山带开始隆升的假设不相符。此外,日喀则弧前盆地北部的低温热年代学研究表明晚渐新世—早中新世Kailas盆地仅发育于日喀则弧前盆地与冈底斯造山带之间的狭长地带,并在短期内经历了快速的埋藏和剥露。     

Low‐temperature thermochronological database of bedrock in the Japanese Islands

To provide better access to thermochronological data and understand the long‐term denudation history of the Japanese Islands, we compiled a low‐temperature thermochronological dataset of fission‐track (FT) and (U–Th–Sm)/He (He) ages for apatite and zircon in bedrocks. These thermochronometric ages are compiled from 90 literature sources and 1,096 localities, and include 418 apatite FT ages, 851 zircon FT ages, 42 apatite He ages, and 30 zircon He ages. Many FT ages have been reported previously; however, the number of He ages is limited in the Japanese Islands. The compiled data are spatially biased; for instance, more data are reported for the Chubu and Kinki districts and the Pacific coast of the Shikoku Island, whereas less data were available for the Tohoku and Chugoku districts. For better understanding arc‐scale uplift‐denudation history, further thermochronological research in the lesser‐studied regions and more He thermochronometric measurements are desired. This compilation will be updated and provided on the website of the Fission‐Track Research Group in Japan ( http://ftrgj.org/index.html ).     

云南中甸-大具断裂上新发现的地震地表破裂带

中甸-大具断裂是川滇菱形块体的西南边界,总体走向310°—320°。近年来我们对该断裂进行了1:50000条带状地质填图,发现了断裂活动的地质地貌证据。其中,在丽江大具盆地内（金沙江右岸）沿断裂新发现一处典型地震地表破裂带,长约600m,宽120m左右,主要表现为地表挤压鼓包、挤压垄脊、张裂缝、挤压阶区等,呈NW走向,与中甸-大具断裂走向基本一致。野外工作中,我们详细记录和测量了地表破裂的破裂样式、破裂规模和相关定量数据,利用旋翼无人机测绘了地表破裂带的形态和展布,获得了高精度DEM,分析了地表破裂表现出的运动性质。在已有资料的基础上讨论了地表破裂的形成时代、归属、震级大小,简要分析了其发震断层。新地震地表破裂带的发现为进一步研究中甸-大具断裂活动特征、古地震及地震危险性提供了基础资料。     

GOES-9云图资料在热带气旋路径相似预报中的应用

利用1996～1999四年的GMS-5红外云图资料、NCEP资料和〈台风年鉴〉给出的热带气旋资料,以及GOES-9红外云图资料,使用逐步相似法对2004年热带气旋进行了路径预报试验.结果表明,GOES-9资料与GMS-5资料可以融合使用,用云图灰度场结合高度场作相似预报的方法可以实现热带气旋移动路径的定量预报,表现了较好的准确性,具有良好应用前景.     

BDA方案在台风路径预报中的应用

利用PSU／NCAR中尺度非静力有限区域MM5及其伴随模式,以T106分析资料为背景场,设计两种台风Bogus方案对台风的初始场进行优化,并进行了数值模拟试验。对9608号台风个例的数值模拟试验研究表明,经过优化的台风初始场较好地改进了由于海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准、台风环流偏弱和台风内部结构不完整等问题,提高了台风路径预报的准确率。通过试验对比发现,BDA方案优化的初始场更合理,其台风路径预报效果优于GFDL方案。     

丝绸之路经济带交通运输的时空演化特征及对经济发展的影响

采用交通网络维数法、相关系数法和格兰杰因果检验分析法等定量统计方法,系统分析了自1998-2015年丝绸之路经济带九省区交通运输投资额、交通网络发育程度、交通运输能力的时空变化特征及对国民经济发展的影响。结果表明：丝绸之路经济带九省区交通运输投资额总体呈增长趋势,交通网络密度明显低于全国平均水平;交通网络发育程度不高,但增长发育速度较快,道路密度和网络维数均有很大幅度的提升,公路网的通达性水平及增速明显优于铁路网;交通设施建设对经济发展的影响显著,对国民生产总值的促进作用时滞长度为两年左右,但各省区之间的交通基础设施建设造成了不明显的空间溢出效应,体现出丝绸之路经济带各省区之间的经济联系尚处薄弱阶段。     

鄂尔多斯盆地东南缘白垩纪以来构造演化的裂变径迹证据

鄂尔多斯盆地东南缘处于渭北隆起、晋西挠褶带和东秦岭造山带的转折地带,构造位置独特,演化历史复杂.本文选取东缘韩城地区和南缘东秦岭洛南地区上三叠统延长组为研究对象,采集6件砂岩样品进行锆石、磷灰石裂变径迹分析,对关键构造-热事件提供热年代学约束,恢复盆地东南缘不同构造带的热演化史,深化对盆地东南部油气资源赋存条件的认识,以期实现油气勘探的新突破.研究表明韩城和洛南地区的抬升冷却史存在明显差异.磷灰石裂变径迹年龄表现为从南到北减小的趋势.东缘韩城剖面磷灰石裂变径迹记录51.6~66.3 Ma、33 Ma两次抬升冷却的峰值年龄.南缘洛南剖面锆石裂变径迹年龄和磷灰石裂变径迹年龄分别记录89~106 Ma和59~66 Ma的冷却抬升年龄.洛南地区抬升冷却时间较早,剥蚀速率(106m/Ma)大于韩城地区(68m/Ma),且持续时间长.磷灰石裂变径迹(Apatite Fission Track,AFT)热史模拟显示,晚中生代,受燕山运动的影响,东秦岭地区发生强烈的构造岩浆事件,洛南地区热演化程度明显高于韩城地区.洛南剖面的热演化主要受岩浆活动的控制,韩城剖面为埋藏增温型.鄂尔多斯盆地东南缘的裂变径迹年龄格局基本受控于白垩纪以来的抬升冷却事件.