东亚地区南北两个风暴源地中风暴的结构和动力学差异

基于欧洲中心中期天气预报再分析资料(ERA-40),使用涡旋追踪和合成技术、多尺度子空间变换以及局地多尺度能量分析方法研究了东亚地区南北两个风暴源地中风暴的差异。结果发现,南、北两个源地风暴在结构上和内部动力过程上均存在着显著不同。南支源地(40°N以南)风暴底层比高层强,与线性斜压模式中的最不稳定模态结构相似;而北支源地(40°N以北)风暴则正好相反,与下游发展理论所描述的斜压波结构相似。并且发现,南支源地风暴的非地转风场比北支源地风暴的强。能量学诊断结果显示,南支源地风暴的能量源除了斜压不稳定外,有很大一部分来自正压不稳定,而北支源地风暴中则是存在弱的动能逆尺度传输。此外,南支源地风暴的浮力转换和非绝热做功均比北支源地风暴的强,其主要原因是南支源地风暴的垂直运动更强,风暴中的水汽更加充足。      

A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD

Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36h.     

A spatiotemporal analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic Basin and their relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

There has been an enhanced focus on Atlantic tropical cyclone climatologies with the significant cyclones of the past decade and the associated loss of life and property. This study examines the geographic location of cyclone tracks and their relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The average annual cyclone track latitude and longitude correlate positively with hurricane-season El Niño indices, indicating that during El Niño conditions, tropical cyclone tracks are shifted northward and eastward. June–November indices explain 11–22% and 3–11% of the variance in cyclone track latitude and longitude, respectively. Examination of the strongest and weakest El Niño years yields similar results. Higher sea level pressure over North America, a slight contraction of the Bermuda High, and a slight decrease in 500 mb heights during El Niño years helps to explain the observed northward and eastward movement of tropical cyclone tracks during El Niño years. Additionally, weaker easterly and stronger southerly winds on the western side of the North Atlantic Basin exist during El Niño years. Although future tropical cyclone track projection is beyond the scope of this research, these results may provide insight into forecast improvement and ultimately better responses for coastal communities.     

Probing fault zone heterogeneity on the Nojima fault: Constraints from zircon fission-track analysis of borehole samples

Fission-track (FT) thermochronologic analysis was performed on zircon separates from rocks in and around the Nojima fault, which was activated during the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Samples were collected from the University Group 500 m (UG-500) borehole and nearby outcrops. FT lengths in zircons from localities > 25 m away from the fault plane as well as one 0.1 m away from the fault in the footwall are characterized by concordant mean values of  10–11 μm and unimodal distributions with negative skewness, which showed no signs of appreciable reduction in FT length. In contrast, those adjacent (< 3 m) to the fault at depths on the hanging wall side showed significantly reduced mean track lengths of  6–8 μm and distributions having a peak around 6–7 μm with rather positive skewness. The former pattern is interpreted to reflect cooling through the zircon partial annealing zone (ZPAZ), without later, partial thermal overprints. The latter indicates substantial track shortening due probably to secondary heating by a thermal event(s) that locally perturbed the geothermal structure. Modeled zircon FT length and age data of partially annealed samples from the UG-500 borehole revealed a cooling episode in the ZPAZ that started at  4 Ma within  3 m from the fault plane, whereas those from the Geological Survey of Japan 750 m borehole record cooling started at  31–38 Ma within  25 m from the fault. On the basis of one-dimensional heat conduction modeling as well as the consistency between the degree of FT annealing and the degree of deformation/alteration of borehole rocks, these cooling ages in both boreholes are interpreted as consequences of ancient thermal overprints by heat transfer or dispersion via fluids in the fault zone. Together with the zircon FT data of a pseudotachylyte layer recently analyzed, it is suggested that the present Nojima fault system was reactivated in the Middle Quaternary from an ancient fault initiated at  56 Ma at mid-crustal depths. Also shown is a temporal/spatial variation in terms of the thermal anomalies recorded in the fault rocks, implying heterogeneity of hot fluid flows in the fault zone.     

The Linkage between Midwinter Suppression of the North Pacific Storm Track and Atmospheric Circulation Features in the Northern Hemisphere

The midwinter suppression(MWS) of the North Pacific storm track(NPST) has been an active research topic for decades. Based on the daily-mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2018, this study investigates the MWS-related atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Northern Hemisphere by regression analysis with respect to a new MWS index, which may shed more light on this difficult issue. The occurrence frequency of the MWS of the upper-tropospheric NPST is more than 0.8 after the mid-1980 s. The MWS is accompanied by significantly positive sea-level pressure anomalies in Eurasia and negative anomalies over the North Pacific, which correspond to a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon. The intensified East Asian trough and atmospheric blocking in the North Pacific as well as the significantly negative low-level air temperature anomalies, lying upstream of the MNPST, are expected to be distinctly associated with the MWS. However, the relationship between the MWS and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity is somewhat puzzling.From the diagnostics of the eddy energy budget, it is identified that the inefficiency of the barotropic energy conversion related to the barotropic governor mechanism does not favor the occurrence of the MWS. In contrast, weakened baroclinic energy conversion, buoyancy conversion, and generation of eddy available potential energy by diabatic heating are conducive to the occurrence of the MWS. In addition, Ural blocking in the upstream region of the MNPST may be another candidate mechanism associated with the MWS.     

沉积盆地中恢复地层剥蚀量的新方法

主要介绍了磷灰石裂变径迹分析法,沉积波动过程分析法和宇宙成因核素分析法等３种恢复和计算地层剥蚀量的新方法。它们的优点是不但给出一个剥蚀面造成的地层总的剥蚀量,还能详细刻画整个剥蚀过程,从而能计算出每一期构造抬升引起的地层剥蚀量。     

广州市轨道交通二十一号线工程路基抗震性测试研究

传统路基动模量法大都进行单路基抗震性能分析,缺乏复合路基抗震性能分析,存在较高的偏差。对广州市轨道交通二十一号线工程路基抗震性进行测试,分析该地地质条件后,通过标准贯入实验法判断原始路基土质液化情况,使用瑞典条分法测试原始路基的抗震性能,判别出该路基液化土层滑动安全系数低、抗震稳定性差,应对其进行复合路基加固。通过圆弧滑动法对加固后的复合路基中碎石桩桩网结构路基以及CFG桩桩网结构路基进行抗震性测试。实验结果表明,所提方法抗干扰性能强且测试结果精度高。     

利用OpenGL实现武器装备模型运动可视化

在对武器装备模型的研究中,武器空间运动轨迹的研究和运动中产生的特殊效果的研究是当前重要的两个研究方向。本文研究的相关技术主要应用于某单方仿真推演系统,以飞机、导弹、炮弹等为研究对象,通过对武器装备的空间运动轨迹建模,建立了参数可变的轨迹解算方程,并且在三维可视化环境下模拟了其运动轨迹,同时利用粒子系统的方法模拟了飞机运动时产生的特殊效果。最终建立一个多视点、多角度、多层次观察武器运动仿真进度的可视化平台。     

鄂尔多斯盆地西南部三叠纪末抬升剥蚀事件及热年代学记录

三叠纪末期大型鄂尔多斯盆地遭受了中生代成盆以来首次较大规模的抬升剥蚀,显著改造了中晚三叠世延长期盆地面貌,并控制了侏罗纪早期沉积格局和油藏分布,对盆地演化及矿产资源分布产生了重要影响。本文利用地质及大量钻井资料揭示了该期构造事件对盆地的剥蚀改造特征,盆地及周邻地区磷灰石裂变径迹年代学记录并约束了此次构造抬升的时限与过程;综合周邻区域构造研究成果,探讨了其发育的动力学背景。结果表明,鄂尔多斯盆地三叠纪末期的剥蚀具西南强、东北弱的特点,西南部大范围内延长组地层残缺不全,剥蚀量最大可达1000余米;前侏罗纪沉积古地貌总体呈西南高、北东低的特点;其抬升时间始于205～190Ma,西南部稍早于盆地腹部,抬升速率大于1℃/Myr,可持续至中侏罗世(约160Ma)。该期抬升剥蚀事件范围可涉及至盆地西南缘更广阔的区域,与同期秦岭造山带内出现的快速抬升冷却事件具有较好的时空耦合关系,是对秦岭造山带区域构造环境转变的响应和纪录。该研究丰富和发展了三叠纪末期构造事件在华北克拉通的影响,对该区油气、煤炭资源的进一步勘探和评价提供了新的思路,具有一定的现实意义。     

Northward cooling of the Kuncha nappe and downward heating of the Lesser Himalayan autochthon distributed to the south of Mt. Annapurna,western central Nepal

We investigated the tectonothermal history of the Lesser Himalayan sediments (LHS), which are tectonically overlain by the Higher Himalayan Crystalline. Fission‐track dating and the track length measurement of detrital zircons obtained from the Kuncha nappe and the Lesser Himalayan autochthonous sediments in western central Nepal revealed northward cooling of the nappe and possible downward heating of the autochthon by the overlying hot nappe. Nine zircon fission‐track (ZFT) ages of the nappe showed northward‐younging linear distribution from 11.6 Ma in the front at Tamghas, 6 Ma in the central at Naudanda, and 1.6 Ma in the northernmost point at Tatopani. Thermochronological invert calculation of the ZFT length elucidated that the Kuncha nappe gradually cooled down (30 °C/Myr) at the front and rapidly cooled down (120 °C/Myr) at the root zone. In contrast, the ZFT age of the Chappani Formation, located just beneath the Kuncha nappe in the central part, demonstrated a totally reset age of 6.8 Ma, whereas the Virkot Formation, structurally far from the nappe, yielded a partially reset age of 457.3 Ma. This suggests that the LHS underwent downward heating, resulting in a thermal print on the upper part of the LHS; however, the thermal effect was not sufficient to anneal ZFT totally in the deeper part. Presently, the nappe cover is eroded and denuded from this area. Detrital zircons from the Chappani Formation in Tansen area to the south of the Bari Gad Fault did not show any evidence of annealing, suggesting that nappe never covered the LHS distributed to the south of the fault.