The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event – part 2: fine‐scale precipitation and associated features

Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h^?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in elastic thickness and flexure of the Maracaibo block

We estimate the lateral variations of the elastic thickness of the Maracaibo block with a 3D numerical approach by using centered finite differences. The calculation is based on solving the fourth-order partial differential equation that governs the bending of a thin plate fixed on its boundaries (zero displacement) with variable thickness (or elastic thickness for this particular case). An initial plate-load model is built and is iteratively modified to fit the general basement configuration and gravity data. The final result is an elastic thickness map that covers the Maracaibo block and the surrounding sections of the South American plate. It shows that the elastic thickness ranges from 30 km to 18 km with a mean value of 23.6 km and a mode of 26 km. The largest elastic thickness values are associated with the location of the Santa Marta Mountains and the Barinas Apure Basin, while the smallest ones with the Mérida Andes-Maracaibo Basin flexural system. The current basement configuration within the Maracaibo basin, formed as a result of its geodynamic evolution, has affected the mechanical properties of the Maracaibo block near the current Mérida Andes position. The load of the Perijá Range is compensated by a complex stress tensor, and that of the Santa Marta Mountains does not have an isostatic root as it is held by a relatively strong lithosphere.     

The Fluxes and Behaviour of Plumes Inferred from Measurements of Coherent Structures within Images of the Bulk Flow

This paper describes how measurements of the movement of identifiable features at the edge of a turbulent plume can be interpreted to determine the properties of the mean flow and consequently, using plume theory, can be used to make estimates of the fluxes of volume (mass), momentum, and buoyancy in a plume. This means that video recordings of smoke rising from a chimney or buoyant material from a source on the sea bed can be used to make accurate estimates of the source conditions for the plume. At best we can estimate the volume flux and buoyancy flux to within about 5% and 15% of the actual values, respectively. Although this is restricted to the case of a plume rising in a stationary and unstratified environment, we show that the results may be of practical use in other more complex situations. In addition, we demonstrate that large-scale (turbulent) coherent structures at the plume edge form on a scale approximately 40% of the local (mean) plume half-width and travel at almost 60% of the average local (mean) velocity in the plume.     

Bounding surface model for soil resistance to cyclic lateral pile displacements with arbitrary direction

The development of a two-surface elastic–plastic bounding surface P–Y model for cyclic lateral pile motions is described. The kinematic-hardening model is applicable to the analysis of pile foundations subjected to loading with arbitrary azimuths relative to the pile axis. The model realistically captures the hysteretic energy damping associated with dynamic loading of subsea foundations through physically correct plastic mechanisms and provides results consistent with those observed in physical tests including cyclic loading. Its performance is demonstrated in element states of stress and in pile foundation analyses. The development based on the incremental theory of plasticity results in more robust solutions than may be obtained using alternative elastic, variable moduli and deformation plasticity formulations.     

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Niña years with a similar sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.     

江苏一次锢囚状MCS和相关中涡旋MCV的观测分析

利用常规地面和高空气象观测资料,结合气象卫星云图和雷达回波,分析了2009年6月14日15—23时(北京时,下同),造成江苏强对流天气的一个中尺度对流系统(MCS)的锢囚状特征的形成过程及其垂直结构。地面中尺度分析表明,雷暴高压东侧在飑前倒槽北端发展的闭合低压环流的东南气流将暖湿空气输送到冷性雷暴高压的北侧形成东南一西北向的暖舌,从而形成锢囚状的结构。长三角探空网资料的垂直结构分析表明,在对流层下部地面到850 hPa为冷性的雷暴高压,在对流层中部700 hPa为冷性的α中尺度涡旋(MCV),而500 hPa已转变为暖性的MCV。静力学关系可以说明MCV仅仅存在于700~500 hPa的原因和MCS下冷上暖的热力结构密切相关。     

浙江盛夏一次强对流天气的特征及其成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站加密观测资料、GFS 0.5°×0.5°逐6 h分析场数据,以及多普勒雷达、风廓线、微波辐射计探测资料,对2014年7月26日浙江盛夏一次强对流天气过程的特征及其成因进行了诊断分析,结果表明:此次过程发生在副热带高压边缘,由于高空槽东移过程中带来了弱冷空气的渗透,并有大量不稳定能量积聚,形成了午后"上干冷、下暖湿"这样有利于强对流发生的不稳定层结条件和环境背景场。当低层925 hPa的中尺度辐合线和对流层中层700 hPa的垂直上升运动区相重合时,中尺度辐合线附近在未来6 h内产生了强对流,这对强对流的发生发展具有一定的预报指示意义。宁波中尺度辐合线是由偏南风和东北风辐合而成,同时受沿海和喇叭口地形影响,该辐合线早已存在,之后触发了宁波地区的强对流天气。杭州中尺度辐合线是由于宁波雷暴的地面出流增强了偏东风气流,从而加强了偏东风与环境东北风的辐合,导致了杭州中尺度辐合线的形成,随后在辐合线附近出现了剧烈的对流天气。     

Time-domain simulation of berthing problem between FPSO and shuttle tanker in waves

A time-domain simulation method based on potential flow model has been developed to investigate the berthing problem between two floating bodies in wave. The boundary value problem is formulated with respect to an earth-fixed coordinate system because the relative positions of the two vessels continuously change during the berthing operation. The classical finite element method is used to solve the Laplace equation in the fluid domain with moving boundary. The linearized free-surface boundary conditions are integrated in time by applying 4th-order Adams–Bashforth–Moulton method. A simple re-mesh algorithm with local and global mesh systems is introduced to update mesh by considering large horizontal movement of the berthing vessel. The developed numerical method is used to investigate the berthing problem between a FPSO and shuttle tanker in waves. The focus is on the wave-induced motion response during the berthing process. The characteristics of the motion responses in berthing operation are examined with various wave frequencies, berthing speeds and wave headings.     

Incremental elastoplastic FEM for simulating the deformation process of suction caissons subjected to cyclic loads in soft clays

This paper presents an incremental elastoplastic finite element method (FEM) to simulate the undrained deformation process of suction caisson foundations subjected to cyclic loads in soft clays. The method is developed by encoding the total-stress-based bounding surface model proposed by the authors in the ABAQUS software package. According to the model characteristics, elastoplastic stress states associated with the incremental strains of each iteration are determined using the sub-incremental explicit Euler algorithm, and the state parameters describing the cyclic accumulative rates of strains are updated by setting state variables during the calculations. The radial fallback method is also proposed to modify the stress states outside the bounding surface to the surface during determination of the elastoplastic stress states. The stress reversals of soil elements are judged by the angle between the incremental deviatoric stress and the exterior normal vector at the image stress point on the bounding surface to update the mapping centre and state variables during cyclic loading. To assess the general validity of the method, the reduced scale model tests and centrifuge tests of suction caissons subjected to cyclic loads are simulated using the method. Predictions are in relative good agreement with test results. Compared with the limit equilibrium and quasi-static methods, the method can not only determine the cyclic bearing capacity, but can also analyse the deformation process and the failure mechanisms of suction caisson under cyclic loads in soft clays.