基于Bootstrap方法的岩土体参数联合分布模型识别

小样本容量岩土体参数最优联合概率分布模型的识别是一个富有挑战性的问题。基于Bootstrap提出了小样本容量岩土体参数最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数识别方法。简要介绍了岩土体参数联合概率分布函数构造的Copula方法,采用AIC准则识别最优的边缘分布函数和Copula函数。将识别结果表示为不同备选边缘分布函数和Copula函数为最优边缘分布和最优Copula的权重系数集合,以基桩荷载-位移双曲线参数试验数据为例证明了所提方法的有效性。结果表明：基于小样本容量岩土体参数试验数据估计的样本均值、标准差和相关系数具有较大的离散性,这种离散性进一步导致了统计量AIC值存在较大变异性。提出的基于Bootstrap的最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数识别方法不仅可以有效地考虑统计量AIC值的变异性,而且能够综合地反映不同备选边缘分布函数和Copula函数为最优边缘分布和最优Copula函数的概率,为小样本容量岩土体参数最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数的识别提供了一条有效的途径。     

The impact of residential desegregation on social integration: Evidence from a South African neighbourhood

This paper analyses the potential for social integration in post-apartheid urban South Africa by examining the lives of those already living in desegregated spaces. The case study is a low-cost state-assisted housing project situated in the wealthy southern suburbs of Cape Town. In this social housing project, named Westlake village, coloured and Black African (alongside a handful of white and Indian) residents were awarded state housing in 1999 as replacement for their previous homes (informal and formal), which were demolished to make way for a mixed land-use development, of which their new homes form a small component. Westlake’s desegregation is found to extend beyond mere residential abode, affecting resident’s everyday lives to the extent that apartheid’s history and geography are superseded by other factors (such as proximity and affordability) in decision-making. Furthermore, integration at the everyday level of informal neighbourly mixing is prevalent. Although more formal cross-race friendships are rare, discussion reveals this as a consequence of Westlake’s specific socio-historic identity rather than racial divisions per se. Empirical evidence is used to propose a continuum of social integration experience. This continuum addresses the form of integration, for example greeting in the street, visiting homes, inter-marriage; and also the spaces of integration, for example physical space (shared neighbourhood), economic space (common employment-type), social space (cross-race friendship), political space (common involvement in civic organisations) and cultural space (shared sense of belonging).     

The need for judgement in geotechnical reliability studies

ABSTRACT

A core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability.     

Evaluation of numerical time‐integration schemes for real‐time hybrid testing

We present a comparison of methods for the analysis of the numerical substructure in a real‐time hybrid test. A multi‐tasking strategy is described, which satisfies the various control and numerical requirements. Within this strategy a variety of explicit and implicit time‐integration algorithms have been evaluated. Fully implicit schemes can be used in fast hybrid testing via a digital sub‐step feedback technique, but it is shown that this approach requires a large amount of computation at each sub‐step, making real‐time execution difficult for all but the simplest models. In cases where the numerical substructure poses no harsh stability condition, it is shown that the Newmark explicit method offers advantages of speed and accuracy. Where the stability limit of an explicit method cannot be met, one of the several alternatives may be used, such as Chang's modified Newmark scheme or the α‐operator splitting method. Appropriate methods of actuator delay compensation are also discussed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

临汾地震安全性评价的极值理论方法

本文根据极值理论建立了烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期公式，根据最大熵原理建立了未来Ｔ年烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的概率和烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期之间的关系式。利用１０２２─１９９３年的地震资料，计算了临汾（３６．１０°Ｎ，１１１．５０°Ｅ）周围４级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度，绘制了未来１００年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线（地震危险性曲线）。结果表明，计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。     

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

1989年大同—阳高地震前后的地震危险性分析及概率预测

通过对山西境内地震序列的分析计算，得出一个适合山西地区地震活动的概率模型。并以此模型对１９８９年前后的地震活动进行了计算，给出１９８９年以来山西地震频繁活动的理论依据，对今后的地震活动进行了预测。     

新地震区划图的几个基本问题

我国新的地震区划图(1990年版)是采用地震危险性慨率分析方法编制的。该图给出的是场点地震烈度值,该值在50年内被突破的概率为0.1。人们普遍关注该图与我国曾经编制的地震区划图(1957年版,1977年版)的区别,该图超越概率概念的内含和外延以及超越概率水平为什么采用50年超越概率0.1。本文围绕这些问题进行了讨论。分析结果表明,前两张地震区划图编图的基本着眼点都是地震预测,而新的地震区划着眼于场点的地震动预测。新的地震区划图是按场点地震危险性分析方法给出的,它所表示的地震危险性只能针对具体的场点,不能完全反映区域的地震危险性特征。而弄清场点地震危险性和区域地震危险性的差异是正确进行区域防灾对策的基础。作者希望这些讨论能对正确使用新的地震区划图有所裨益。     

基于微服务架构的地震站网全流程一体化监控平台设计与实现

地震站网全流程一体化监控平台是基于微服务框架,应用数据库、通信、并行计算等传统信息技术,结合新兴的云计算、大数据进行建设的信息服务平台。该平台采用Hadoop分布式处理方案,应用Spring Cloud框架搭建,进行Docker容器封装,以标准RESTful API作为服务接口的微服务架构,实现了各应用服务模块之间的高内聚、低耦合及灵活、可扩展的特性,最终实现对地震台站运行的实时监测、高效运维和一体化管理。     

Equivalent force control method for generalized real‐time substructure testing with implicit integration

This paper presents a new method, called the equivalent force control method, for solving the nonlinear equations of motion in a real‐time substructure test using an implicit time integration algorithm. The method replaces the numerical iteration in implicit integration with a force‐feedback control loop, while displacement control is retained to control the motion of an actuator. The method is formulated in such a way that it represents a unified approach that also encompasses the effective force test method. The accuracy and effectiveness of the method have been demonstrated with numerical simulations of real‐time substructure tests with physical substructures represented by spring and damper elements, respectively. The method has also been validated with actual tests in which a Magnetorheological damper was used as the physical substructure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.