Debris discs around nearby solar analogues

An unbiased search for debris discs around nearby Sun-like stars is reported. 13 G-dwarfs at 12–15 parsec distance were searched at 850 μm wavelength, and a disc is confirmed around HD 30495. The estimated dust mass is  0.008 M_⊕  with a net limit  ≲0.0025 M_⊕  for the average disc of the other stars. The results suggest there is not a large missed population of substantial cold discs around Sun-like stars – HD 30495 is a bright rather than unusually cool disc, and may belong to a few hundred Myr old population of greater dust luminosity. The far-infrared and millimetre survey data for Sun-like stars are well fitted by either steady state or stirred models, provided that typical comet belts are comparable in size to that in the Solar system.     

Reconstruction of fire spread within wildland fire events in Northern Eurasia from the MODIS active fire product

Russian boreal forests have been reshaped by wildland fire for millennia. While fire is a natural component of boreal ecosystems, it impacts various aspects of the environment and affects human well-being. Often fires occur over large remote areas with limited access, which makes their ground-based observation difficult. A significant progress has been made in mapping burned area from satellite imagery, which provides consistent and fairly unbiased estimates of fire impact on areas of interest at multiple scales. Although the information provided by burned area products is highly important, the spatio-temporal dynamics of individual fire events and their impact are less known. In high northern latitudes of Northern Eurasia, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) makes up to four daily observations from each of the Terra and Aqua satellites providing consistent data on fire development with high temporal frequency. Here we introduce an approach to reconstruct the development of fire events based on active fire detections from MODIS. Fire Spread Reconstruction (FSR) provides a means for characterization of fire occurrence over large territories from remotely sensed data. Individual fire detections are clustered within a GIS environment based on a set of rules determining proximity between fire observations in space and time. FSR determines the number of fire events, their approximate size, duration, and fire spread rate and allows for the analysis of fire occurrence and spread as a function of vegetation, fire season, fire weather and other parameters. FSR clusters were compared to burned scars mapped from Landsat7/ETM+ imagery over Yakutia (Russia). While some smaller burn scars were found to be formed through a continuous burning of a single fire event, large burned areas in Siberia were created by a constellation of fire events incorporating over 100 individual fire clusters. Geographic regions were found to have a stronger influence on the rates of fire activity in the area compared to vegetation zones. In addition, fire spread rates do not directly correlate with the intensity of a given fire season. FSR is also used to identify the points of ignition for individual fire events in spatio-temporal domain for fire danger and fire threat modeling. This approach presents another step towards the more complete characterization of fire events from remotely sensed data.     

Glacier inventory of the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in the Southern Andes and glacier changes observed during recent decades

The Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) forms an isolated ice cap on the Península Muñoz Gamero (PMG) located 200 km to the south of the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI). We present a glacier inventory of the GCN made up by 27 drainage basins (in total 199.5 km²) and other small cirque and valley glaciers of the southern part of PMG (in total 53 km²). The glacier inventory is based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and ortho-photos. Contour lines from maps, relief information derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery from 1986 and 2002 and stereoscopic data from aerial photos were combined in a knowledge-based scheme to obtain a DEM of the area. A digital ortho-photo map based on aerial photos from 1998 and several ortho-photos based on aerial photos from 1942 and 1984 could be produced from the initial DEM. A geographical information system (GIS) served to outline the extent of the present glaciation. All major glaciers of the GCN show a significant glacier retreat during the last 60 yr. Some of the outlet glaciers lost more than 20% of their total area during this period. Overall glacier retreat amounts to 2.8% of glacier length per decade and the glacier area loss is 2.4% per decade in the period from 1942 to 2002. We hypothesise that GCN glaciers may have reacted faster and more synchronously with the observed warming trend during recent decades when compared with the SPI.     

Eccentricity growth of planetesimals in a self-gravitating protoplanetary disc

We investigate the orbital evolution of planetesimals in a self-gravitating circumstellar disc in the size regime (∼1–5000 km) where the planetesimals behave approximately as test particles in the disc's non-axisymmetric potential. We find that the particles respond to the stochastic, regenerative spiral features in the disc by executing large random excursions (up to a factor of 2 in radius in ∼1000 yr), although typical random orbital velocities are of the order of one tenth of the Keplerian speed. The limited time frame and small number of planetesimals modelled do not permit us to discern any net direction of planetesimal migration. Our main conclusion is that the high eccentricities (∼0.1) induced by interaction with spiral features in the disc is likely to be highly unfavourable to the collisional growth of planetesimals in this size range while the disc is in the self-gravitating regime. Thus if , as recently argued by Rice et al., the production of planetesimals gets under way when the disc is in the self-gravitating regime (either at smaller planetesimal size scales, where gas drag is important, or via gravitational fragmentation of the solid component), the planetesimals thus produced would not be able to grow collisionally until the disc ceases to be self-gravitating. It is unclear, however, given the large amplitude excursions undergone by planetesimals in the self-gravitating disc, whether they would be retained in the disc throughout this period, or whether they would instead be lost to the central star.     

Dissipative systems: Implications for geomorphology

A recent revolution in the study of nonlinear dynamical systems in the physical sciences has shown the worth of regarding systems as dissipative. The nature of dissipative systems in equations, bifurcations, and fluctuations. Some speculations are then made concerning the implications of dissipative system theory for geomorphology. It is suggested that geomorphological systems containing bifurcations will have both deterministic (universal and necessary) and probabilistic (historical happenstance) elements; they will have more than one solution (configuration) and this fact calls into question notions of process domains leading to the development of characteristic forms; they will possess varying degrees of susceptibility to change induced by fluctuations; and they will respond differently to local, regional, and global fluctuations.     

Multi-scale modeling of three-phase–three-component processes in heterogeneous porous media

Flow and transport processes in porous media occur on different spatial and temporal scales and may also be locally different. Additionally, the structure of the porous medium itself generally shows a high dependence on the spatial scale.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

2006年6月10日浙江飑线FY-2C卫星云图特征

利用国际卫星云气候计划（International Satellite Cloud Climate Program,简称ISCCP）提供的1998—2007年共10 a的深对流路径跟踪资料,统计分析了影响江淮地区对流系统（Convection system,简称CS）的时空分布及其参数特征。结果表明：影响江淮地区的CS主要集中在春夏两季,大多生成于江淮本地及我国中西部地区,呈现以江淮地区为中心的带状分布特征,越靠近江淮区域CS分布越为密集。依据源地不同,将影响江淮地区的CS分为5类,受气候条件与地形地貌的共同作用,各源地CS参数特征差异显著,总体来说CS的水平尺度越大,其生命史、对流云团(Convective clusters,简称CC)数目及水平云温度梯度也越大。其中江淮中心区域（MID）区域CS水平尺度、生命史和CC数目的平均值均为最小;东南（SE）区域CS生命周期以中长周期为主,水平尺度、最大对流比和云温度梯度的平均值最大。梅雨期内江淮地区对流活动频繁,CS的水平尺度大、生命史长、CC数目多。