Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.     

使用因子分析方法研究九江5.7级地震前的地震活动异常

使用2005年11月26日江西九江5.7级地震前震中附近地区的地震资料, 选择反映地震活动时、 空、 强特征的地震频次N(M_L≥3.0)、 b值、 η值、 A(b)值、 Mf值、 Ac值、 C值和D值参量进行因子分析。 这些参量之间具有一定的相关性, 各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异, 预报效果并不理想。 但是根据因子分析可以得到反映地震活动时、 空、 强特征的综合指标W_fa值, 该指标在九江5.7级地震前出现明显的异常变化。 表明综合指标W_fa值可以较好地反映地震活动的异常特征。 文中还对与因子分析结果的有关问题进行了讨论。     

Modeling fish growth and reproduction in the context of the Dynamic Energy Budget theory to predict environmental impact on anchovy spawning duration

Spawning location and timing are critical for understanding fish larval survival. The impact of a changing environment on spawning patterns is, however, poorly understood. A novel approach is to consider the impact of the environment on individual life histories and subsequent spawnings. In the present work, we extend the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to investigate how environment variability impacts the spawning timing and duration of a multiple-batch spawning species. The model is successfully applied to reproduce the growth and reproduction of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Bay of Biscay. The model captures realistically the start and ending of the spawning season, including the timing of the spawning events, and the change in egg number per batch. Using a realistic seasonal forcing of temperature and food availability derived from a bio-physical model, our simulation results show that two thirds of the total spawned mass already accumulates before the start of the spawning season and that the condition factor increases with body length. These simulation results are in accordance with previous estimations and observations on growth and reproduction of anchovy. Furthermore, we show how individuals of equal length can differ in reproductive performance according to the environmental conditions they encounter prior to the spawning season. Hatch date turns out to be key for fecundity at age-1 as it partly controls the ability to build up reserves allocated to reproduction. We suggest the model can be used to realistically predict spawning in spatially and temporally varying environments and provide initial conditions for bio-physical models used to predict larval survival.     

A factor analytic approach to the identification of geomorphic processes from soil particle size characteristics

Q-mode factor analysis of soil particle size data is used to identify the three dominant geomorphic processes responsible for the spatial variability of particle size in a catchment on the basaltic Darling Downs landsurface. Three factors are shown to account for 95 per cent of the textural variability of a suite of transported and sedentary materials. The spatial characteristics of groups of samples associated with the three factors suggests that the three factors are associated with suspended sediment transport and deposition, weathering, and bedload transport and deposition respectively. These interpretations are supported by the detailed graphical analysis of the cumulative particle size curves. The spatially variable influence of the three factors and related processes is given by their respective factor loadings which are mappable for the surface layer materials.     

均质土坡的安全系数

本文用变分法的基本理论的方法，推导出了均质土坡稳定性在平面应变情况下的基本方程，将简单边坡无粘性土（Ｃ＝０）与纯粘性土ψ＝０）的情况作为特例导出了相应的计算方法与计算公式，并对传统的条分法与土坡临界高度计算方法进行了讨论。     

上扬子台区下寒武统黑色岩系中的钒矿床

我国南部早寒武世黑色岩系中，蕴藏丰富的金属和非金属矿产。而位于扬子地台东南缘的钒矿床尤其令人瞩目。本文以湘西为例，剖析该类钒矿地质特征和成矿规律。矿床产于下寒武统黑色岩系底产的碳系页岩、硅岩及黑色页岩组合。矿层呈层状、似层状，产权稳定，埋藏浅，储量大。矿石主要由水云母（伊利石）和石英组成，含有机质及藻类化石。成矿受地层、岩性、古构造和古地理条件控制。矿床具有微生物成矿与海底热水沉积双重特征，成因应属生物地球化学积积矿床范畴。     

随州-信阳ML4.2地震前定点形变异常特征

分析了2000年1月28日随州和信阳交界处发生的ML4．2地震前，信阳地震台（△＝35km)定点形变中短期及临震异常特征。分析研究表明：该次地震前信阳台目视水管倾斜仪EW向测值从1999年6开始出现反向变化，NS向测值从1999年3月开始出现加速变化；水平摆倾余仪EW向和NS向测值分别从1999年2月和1999年6月开始出现反向变化。这些异常于2000年下半年结束。震前3天水管倾斜仪EW向测值出现加速变化；震前5－8天NS向测值除了出现加速变化外，还出现突跳。城前约20天，水平摆倾斜仪2个方向测值构出现了准周期性波动变化。另外，形变固体潮潮汐因子也有明显异常。     

金沙江流域（云南段）砂金成因类型及其找矿前景

根据成矿作用、成矿环境及矿床特征，金沙江流域（云南段）砂金矿床，可划分为：残坡积、洪积、冲洪积、冲积和冰碛等五种类型。成矿主要受碰撞带、深大断裂、大断裂及其派生断裂、基底岩石、地貌、水质和水化学环境等综合控制。以巨甸－大具及中江街－金江街两片区最具有找矿前景。     

缅北中部脉金矿带控矿因素及成矿作用浅析

缅北中部，印缅岛弧及弧后盆地东侧、新生代造山带的前缘推覆构造带中，分布有许多脉金矿床及矿点，构成金矿带。矿带、矿田、矿床及矿体的形成、分布及其规模，受不同级别的近南北向逆冲断裂，及其间派生的北东向张性扩容断裂组成的剪切断裂带控制。可渗透的下麦尔组下部中一粗粒砂岩，起着很好的容矿作用。下麦尔组上部泥岩、细砂岩、粉砂岩和页岩互层单元，在携金热液的迁移、氧化硅的沉淀和矿质沉积定位等方面，可能起到圈闭作用。     

WINDOW FACTOR ANALYSIS:THEORETICAL DERIVATION AND APPLICATION TO FLOW INJECTION ANALYSIS DATA

Window factor analysis(WFA)is a self-modeling method for extracting the concentration profiles ofindividual components from evolutionary processes such as flow injection,chromatography,titrationsand reaction kinetics.The method takes advantage of the fact that each component lies in a specificregion along the evolutionary axis,called the‘window’.Theoretical equations are derived.The methodis used to extract the concentration profiles and spectra of seven bismuth species from data obtained byGemperline and Hamilton,who injected bismuth perchlorate into a flowing stream of hydrochloric acid.