基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究

避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。     

基于"山西2015速度模型"的定位方法对比研究

为了确定山西台网基于“山西2015速度模型”的相对固定的定位方法,选择2010~2016年最大空隙角小于45°、参与定位台站数大于40的103个地震事件,分别采用单纯形法、Hypo2000、Hyposat结合PTD等3种方法重新测定。结果显示,单纯形法和Hyposat结合PTD测定的残差以及网缘地震的震中距两方面均优于Hypo2000;在震源深度方面,Hyposat结合PTD的结果较为可信。综合分析认为,基于“山西2015速度模型”定位地震时,山西台网应固定使用Hyposat结合PTD的方法。     

水文重力效应改正中一维地下水模拟算法的对比

基于一维地下水渗透方程详细推导其有限差分解算过程,引入不同于显式差分的隐式差分和中心差分格式,对比分析不同差分格式对地下水模拟结果及其相应地下水重力效应的影响,并对其中的层间参数取值和非线性方程的线性化问题进行探讨。结果表明,在日本Isawa扇形地区超导台站,不同层间参数加权公式能够引起最大约0.15 μGal的重力效应差异,影响在1.9%以内;不同差分格式和线性化方法组合形式能够引起最大约0.12 μGal的重力效应差异,影响在1.5%以内。     

吉林大椅子山火山年代学、地球化学特征及其排气量的估算

利用铀系组分法测得龙岗大椅子山火山喷发时间为距今71±9ka,属于晚更新世。各类喷发物的岩石化学、地球化学特征表明 ,它们形成于同一岩浆源。根据岩石学方法 ,结合Thordarson(1996)等人的排气模型 ,估算此次喷发向大气层输送的HCl、HF总量分别为7.36Mt和5.21Mt。     

西部戈壁荒漠区大极距激电找矿试验分析

本文主要介绍在西部戈壁荒漠区东天山土屋铜矿上进行大极距激电方法的试验效果,讨论各参数变化对测量结果的不同影响,阐述在该类地区进行大极距激电工作时应采取的原则和措施。     

Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

A nonlinear PDE formulation for offshore vessel pipeline installation

In this paper a nonlinear dynamic PDE formulation for a pipe string suspended from a pipelay vessel to the seabed in a pipelay operation is developed. This model extends a three-dimensional beam model capable of undergoing finite extension, shearing, twist and bending, to apply for marine applications by adding the effects of restoring forces, hydrodynamic drag and seabed interaction. The model is validated against the natural catenary equation and the FEM code RIFLEX. The model is extended to include the pipelay vessel dynamics by applying a potential theory formulation of a surface vessel, suited for dynamic positioning and low speed maneuvering, as a boundary condition for the PDE. This system is found to be input-output passive and stable. Pipeline installation applications where the presented model is suited are e.g., analysis and simulation of the installation operation, operability analysis, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing for vessel control systems, and automation of the pipelay operation.     

Numerical simulation of water flooding into a damaged vessel’s compartment by the volume of fluid method

When a vessel is damaged, seawater floods into the damaged compartments and subsequently influences the motion of the vessel. Furthermore, the vessel’s behaviour affects the floodwater motion. In this paper, a Navier-Stokes (NS) solver with a free surface capturing technique, i.e., the volume of fluid (VOF) method, was developed to numerically simulate water flooding into a damaged vessel. To verify the developed solver, a 2-D and a 3-D dam break problems were tested. The numerical results coincide well with the experimental results and with the published numerical results. Additionally, it was used to solve the problems of linear and non-linear liquid sloshing in a hexahedral tank. The numerical results are satisfactory in comparison with the experimental results and analytical solutions. Finally, the phenomenon of water flooding into a damaged compartment of a Ro-Ro ferry was simulated numerically. The computed results are in good agreement with the experimental data.     

低速十字路口交通流模型相图

研究由两个单车道构成低速十字路口交通流模型.模型中两车道上的车辆更新遵循无交通灯管制下的并行规则.依据构建相图的原则并采用局部占有概率方法,建立相图,给出相图中的各部分区域的流量表达式.两车道均采用周期边界条件和确定性FI模型进行数值模拟,模拟结果与理论分析精确一致.模型中两条车道的行车规则更接近实际道路交通,该结果为交通管理提供一定的指导作用.     

非稳腔主动式直接获取纳秒近似无衍射贝塞尔绿光

通过对基于轴棱锥的贝塞尔谐振腔和贝塞尔-高斯谐振腔的研究,设计了一台腔内倍频Nd:YAG纳秒近似无衍射贝塞尔绿光激光器. 非稳激光器谐振腔由轴棱锥和凸面镜组成. 实验采用单灯脉冲抽运激光增益介质Nd:YAG晶体,倍频晶体选用KTP. 当抽运电压为350 V时,由主动式直接产生纳秒近似零阶贝塞尔绿光,其脉冲宽度为55.1 ns,波长为532 nm,线宽为0.8 nm,近似无衍射零阶贝塞尔绿光的中心光斑直径为192 μm. 利用Fresnel-Kirchhoff 衍射积分和Fox-Li迭代法,通过数值计算得出