Choice between competitive pairs of frequency models for use in hydrology: a review and some new results

Abstract

The potential is investigated of the generalized regression neural networks (GRNN) technique in modelling of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) obtained using the FAO Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. Various combinations of daily climatic data, namely solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, are used as inputs to the ANN so as to evaluate the degree of effect of each of these variables on ET₀. In the first part of the study, a comparison is made between the estimates provided by the GRNN and those obtained by the Penman, Hargreaves and Ritchie methods as implemented by the California Irrigation Management System (CIMIS). The empirical models were calibrated using the standard FAO PM ET₀ values. The GRNN estimates are also compared with those of the calibrated models. Mean square error, mean absolute error and determination coefficient statistics are used as comparison criteria for the evaluation of the model performances. The GRNN technique (GRNN 1) whose inputs are solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, gave mean square errors of 0.058 and 0.032 mm² day^?2, mean absolute errors of 0.184 and 0.127 mm day^?1, and determination coefficients of 0.985 and 0.986 for the Pomona and Santa Monica stations (Los Angeles, USA), respectively. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GRNN 1 model could be employed successfully in modelling the ET₀ process. The second part of the study investigates the potential of the GRNN and the empirical methods in ET₀ estimation using the nearby station data. Among the models, the calibrated Hargreaves was found to perform better than the others.     

2006年春季我国沙尘天气特征及成因分析

利用全国673个站每日8个时次的地面天气报告资料和T213模式产品,分析了2006年春季我国沙尘天气的主要特征及其成因。结果表明:2006年沙尘暴、强沙尘暴范围偏大、沙尘天气强度偏强;2006年春季我国北方沙尘天气过程(17次)偏多、强沙尘暴过程(5次)是2000年以来最多的一年,其中2006年4月9 11日强沙尘暴天气过程的影响范围和强度为20世纪90年代以来第三位;沙尘多发期长、结束晚。2006年春季北方大部地区气温偏高,致使地表层解冻快,土质疏松;降水偏少,地表干土层增厚,为沙尘天气的发生提供了有利的条件。2006年春季东亚大槽偏强,影响我国的冷空气活动较频繁且势力较强,蒙古气旋活动频繁。前期偏暖少雨与冷空气和蒙古气旋的共同作用,是造成2006年春季我国沙尘强度明显偏强且多发期结束晚的主要原因。     

山东省汛期小时极端强降水分布和变化特征

利用山东省1961—2012年74个气象站逐时降水数据,分析研究了山东省汛期(5—9月)小时极端强降水的时空变化和日变化特征。结果表明:(1)山东省小时极端强降水量和频次呈大致的带状分布,由东南沿海向西北内陆递减。山东中西部极端小时强降水强度较大,鲁西、鲁西北、鲁西南及半岛西部一带极端强降水量占比较高。(2)山东历年各站平均小时极端降水量、频次、强度均呈不显著的增多增强趋势。鲁南、鲁西北和半岛东部、北部等地降水量增多趋势明显,鲁南、鲁东南、鲁西、半岛中东部降水强度增强趋势明显。(3)下午(15时)至傍晚(20时)是山东省小时极端强降水主要发生时段。降水量和降水频次在11—18时呈减少趋势,其他时段多为增加趋势。降水强度的变化在上午基本为减弱趋势,其他时次多为不同程度的增强趋势。(4)7月小时极端降水量和降水频次最大,一日中有两个高值中心。(5)山东夜间两个时段21时至次日02时、03—08时段平均和大部分区域极端强降水有增多趋势。     

现代废黄河口表层沉积物的年代际空间分布与主控因素

基于现代废黄河口的不同年代表层沉积物粒度资料,研究了废河口区表层沉积物的年代际空间分布特征及变化趋势;结合水动力、地形地貌资料,探讨了影响表层沉积物空间格局的主控因素。研究结果表明,现代废黄河口表层沉积物空间分布存在限制的年代际变化特征,不同年代空间分布总体表现出近岸较粗、离岸变细的趋势。1992年研究区表层沉积物粒度总体较细;1992—2000年研究区表层沉积物显著粗化;2000—2007年大部分区域表层沉积物进一步粗化;2007—2015年研究区表层沉积物空间分布无明显变化。研究区表层沉积物的年代际空间分布特征受沉积动力环境及其导致的年代际冲—淤演变格局影响,随着研究区的抗侵蚀能力增强,其表层沉积物的空间分布基本无较大变化。     

济南市城市热岛效应的时空分布特征

论文应用区域自动气象站2007～2008年逐时气温观测资料,分析了济南城市热岛的时空分布特征,结果表明,无论春、夏、秋、冬,济南的城市热岛在空间分布上均以泉城广场、市政府为中心呈环状放射发展。热岛强度以冬季最强,秋、春季次之,夏季最弱。对城市热岛进行小波分析发现,济南冬季和夏季城市热岛的主要振荡周期是以准24h为代表的日变化和准270h所代表的旬变化为主。夏季日变化不如冬季明显,夏季旬变化略强于冬季。济南城市热岛以日为周期呈规律性变化,城市热岛强度表现为夜间强,白天弱。     

长江口悬浮体粒度特征及其季节性差异

1998年11月和1999年5月长江口悬浮体样品的激光粒度仪分析结果表明，长江口悬浮体粒度较细，分选较差，偏态和峰态偏小，粒度组成以粉砂为主；粘土含量次之，基本不含砂或砂含量很小，由陆向海平均粒径有由粗到细的变化趋势。粒度分布呈典型的非正态分布，存在“双峰”和“三峰”两种形式，表层样品以“双峰”分布为主，底层“三峰”或“双峰”并存。标准偏差-粒度曲线上多峰出现，反映了长江口悬浮体组成的复杂性。长江口悬浮体粒度特征有较大的季节变化。悬浮体粒度变化的影响因素包括泥沙来源、底质再悬浮、生物作用和絮凝作用，粒度特征的季节差异是这些因素综合作用的结果。     

The Coefficient of Localization—An Addendum

Geographical data sets sometimes contain missing observations that need to be estimated. A statistical approach to the problem is discussed for multivariate normal spatial data sets satisfying the first-order spatial Markov property with constant mean, where the information at neighboring or contiguous observed sites is used to estimate the missing values. The completed data are used to estimate the parameters of the distribution. The procedure is iterative. The approach is a special case of the Orchard and Woodbury missing information principle. The paper concludes with an illustrative empirical example using rainfall data from an area of Kansas and Nebraska. The quality of the estimates for different sites are compared.     

Airborne measurements of dimethylsulfide,sulfur dioxide,and aerosol ions over the Southern Ocean South of Australia

Vertical distributions of dimethylsulfide (DMS), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), aerosol methane-sulfonate (MSA), non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO₄ ^2-), and other aerosol ions were measured in maritime air west of Tasmania (Australia) during December 1986. A few cloudwater and rainwater samples were also collected and analyzed for major anions and cations. DMS concentrations in the mixed layer (ML) were typically between 15–60 ppt (parts per trillion, 10^–12; 24 ppt=1 nmol m^–3 (20°C, 1013 hPa)) and decreased in the free troposphere (FT) to about <1–2.4 ppt at 3 km. One profile study showed elevated DMS concentrations at cloud level consistent with turbulent transport (cloud pumping) of air below convective cloud cells. In another case, a diel variation of DMS was observed in the ML. Our data suggest that meteorological rather than photochemical processes were responsible for this behavior. Based on model calculations we estimate a DMS lifetime in the ML of 0.9 days and a DMS sea-to-air flux of 2–3 mol m^–2 d^–1. These estimates pertain to early austral summer conditions and southern mid-ocean latitudes. Typical MSA concentrations were 11 ppt in the ML and 4.7–6.8 ppt in the FT. Sulfur-dioxide values were almost constant in the ML and the lower FT within a range of 4–22 ppt between individual flight days. A strong increase of the SO₂ concentration in the middle FT (5.3 km) was observed. We estimate the residence time of SO₂ in the ML to be about 1 day. Aqueous-phase oxidation in clouds is probably the major removal process for SO₂. The corresponding removal rate is estimated to be a factor of 3 larger than the rate of homogeneous oxidation of SO₂ by OH. Model calculations suggest that roughly two-thirds of DMS in the ML are converted to SO₂ and one-third to MSA. On the other hand, MSA/nss-SO₄ ^2- mole ratios were significantly higher compared to values previously reported for other ocean areas suggesting a relatively higher production of MSA from DMS oxidation over the Southern Ocean. Nss-SO₄ ^2- profiles were mostly parallel to those of MSA, except when air was advected partially from continental areas (Africa, Australia). In contrast to SO₂, nss-SO₄ ^2- values decreased significantly in the middle FT. NH₄ ⁺/nss-SO₄ ^2- mole ratios indicate that most non-sea-salt sulfate particles in the ML were neutralized by ammonium.     

Textural trends in turbidites and slurry beds from the Oligocene flysch of the East Carpathians, Romania

Deep‐water sandstone beds of the Oligocene Fusaru Sandstone and Lower Dysodilic Shale, exposed in the Buz?u Valley area of the East Carpathian flysch belt, Romania, can be described in terms of the standard turbidite divisions. In addition, mud‐rich sand layers are common, both as parts of otherwise ‘normal’ sequences of turbidite divisions and as individual event beds. Eleven units, interpreted as the deposits of individual flows, were densely sampled, and 87 thin sections were point counted for grain size and mud content. S₃/T_a divisions, which form the bulk of most sedimentation units, have low internal textural variability but show subtle vertical trends in grain size. Most commonly, coarse‐tail normal grading is associated with fine‐tail inverse grading. The mean grain size can show inverse grading, normal grading or a lack of grading, but sorting tends to improve upward in most beds. Fine‐tail inverse grading is interpreted as resulting from a decreasing effectiveness of trapping of fines during rapid deposition from a turbidity current as the initially high suspended‐load fallout rate declines. If this effect is strong enough, the mean grain size can show subtle inverse grading as well. Thus, thick inversely graded intervals in deep‐water sands lacking traction structures do not necessarily imply waxing flow velocities. If the suspended‐load fallout rate drops to zero after the deposition of the coarse grain‐size populations, the remaining finer grained flow bypasses and may rework the top of the S₃ division, forming well‐sorted, coarser grained, current‐structured T_t units. Alternatively, the suspended‐load fallout rate may remain high enough to prevent segregation of fines, leading to the deposition of significant amounts of mud along with the sand. Mud content of the sandstones is bimodal: either 3–13% or more than 20%. Two types of mud‐rich sandstones were observed. Coarser grained mud‐rich sandstones occur towards the upper parts of S₃/T_a divisions. These units were deposited as a result of enhanced trapping of mud particles in the rapidly deposited sediment. Finer grained mud‐rich units are interbedded with ripple‐laminated very fine‐grained sandy T_c divisions. During deposition of these units, mud floccules were hydraulically equivalent to the very fine sand‐ and silt‐sized sediment. The mud‐rich sandstones were probably deposited by flows that became transitional between turbidity currents and debris flows during their late‐stage evolution.     

农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

致灾因子危险性评价是进行风险区划的重要环节。本文采用江西省贡水流域超警戒水位的降水作为暴雨致灾因子,以最优极值函数分布方法计算研究该流域的重现期面雨量,利用超警戒水位降水过程的降水量时间分布规律和降水空间经验正交函数分析结果,结合FloodArea模型开展不同降水时空分布情景的洪水演进模拟,以模拟淹没水深作为指标建立暴雨致灾危险性评价等级,对不同降水时空分布情景下贡水流域暴雨致灾危险性进行评价。结果显示:不同的降水时空分布对暴雨洪涝致灾危险性评价影响较大。该方法是完善流域内暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划和评估工作的基础,在此基础上开展流域内不同承灾体的脆弱性评价和暴露度评价,可为地方政府制订减灾规划与预案等提供参考。