A New Method for Estimating Lengths for Partially Exposed Features

Length distributions from sedimentary bodies can be measured in outcrop. A common feature in many outcrops is the occurrence of partially exposed bodies, i.e., sedimentary bodies that are cut by either one or both edges of the outcrop. Ignoring these partials while establishing a length distribution leads to a bias toward the smaller length classes. This is because larger bodies have a larger probability to occur as partials than smaller bodies. We present a new method for estimating the expected complete length for a partially exposed feature, based on the theory of conditional probability. The method is demonstrated and tested on a sandstone outcrop exhibiting over 200 interbedded thin silt/shale streaks. It is shown that the method can significantly enlarge both the size and the representativeness of length distributions.     

Statistics for Modeling Heavy Tailed Distributions in Geology: Part I. Methodology

Many natural phenomena exhibit size distributions that are power laws or power law type distributions. Power laws are specific in the sense that they can exhibit extremely long or heavy tails. The largest event in a sample from such distribution usually dominates the underlying physical or generating process (floods, earthquakes, diamond sizes and values, incomes, insurance). Often, the practitioner is faced with the difficult problem of predicting values far beyond the highest sample value and designing his system either to profit from them, or to protect against extreme quantiles. In this paper, we present a novel approach to estimating such heavy tails. The estimation of tail characteristics such as the extreme value index, extreme quantiles, and percentiles (rare events) is shown to depend primarily on the number of extreme data that are used to model the tail. Because only the most extreme data are useful for studying tails, thresholds must be selected above which the data are modeled as power laws. The mean square error (MSE) is used to select such thresholds. A semiparametric bootstrap method is developed to study estimation bias and variance and to derive confidence limits. A simulation study is performed to assess the accuracy of these confidence limits. The overall methodology is applied to the Harvard Central Moment Tensor catalog of global earthquakes.     

贝叶斯序贯平差

应用贝叶斯统计理论推导了序贯平差公式．按本文推导的公式进行贝叶斯序贯平差，得到的未知参数Ｘ的贝叶斯估值与按经典序贯平差得到的结果完全相同，但单位权方差σ２的贝叶斯估值却与按经典平差方法得到的结果相差一个因子．     

The vertical distributions and sources of PAHs in sediment of Xiamen Bay

INTRODUCTIONTheindustrialdevelopmentandrisingpopulationintheXiamencoastalzonearelikelytoresultinincreasingpollutantsloadingwhichcanaffecttheoceanicecosystemsenvironmentthereandthreatenhumanhealth .PAHs ,asgoodenvironmentpollutionindicators(Aizenshat,1 973 ;Randahl,1 983 ) ,arerela tivelystableinairandwater,andarewidelydistributedintheaquaticenvironmentasaresultofhumanactivities.ProposedprimarysourcesofPAHsincludecombustionofvariousfossilfuels,nat uralfires,roadrunoff streetdustaswellas…     

Exponential Longitudinal Profiles of Streams

A theoretical model is presented which shows that streams with low solids concentrations and low lateral inflows, whose bed load sediments undergo either comminution or hydraulic sorting under steady or quasi-steady conditions, have exponential profiles. Similar streams in which both communition and sorting are significant have exponential profiles only if they are short Sediment threshold and flow depth estimates based on the theoretical model are consistent with field and laboratory data from the literature. A comparison of the model and communition and sorting data from the literature strongly suggests that hydraulic sorting and comminution dominate in short and long natural streams, respectively. No examples of natural streams of intermediate length with exponential longitudinal profiles were found, suggesting that neither sorting nor comminution is dominant in such streams. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

太湖浮游植物和各形态无机氮的时空分布特征

为研究太湖浮游植物和各形态无机氮的时空分布特征及其相互关系,于2010年3月至2011年2月在太湖全湖范围内选取9个采样点进行每月采样分析,结果表明:太湖无机氮主要以硝态氮和铵氮形式存在,前者占76%,后者占22%;太湖北部靠近西北沿岸的湖区以及竺山湾的铵氮和亚硝态氮浓度通常要明显高于其他点位.太湖各采样点TIN(总溶解性无机氮)的季节变化趋势很相似,都表现为春季最高,夏秋季降低,冬季又有所升高;夏季北部湖区TIN降幅明显大于南部,使得前者TIN/TSP(总溶解性磷)远小于后者.春季太湖南部的微囊藻复苏量大于北部,但夏秋季微囊藻的暴发主要发生在太湖北部,此时微囊藻大暴发的点位(如梅梁湾)通常都伴随着很低的硝态氮浓度和TIN/TSP,使得这些点位比其他地方更容易发生N限制;Chl.a/浮游植物的比值与浮游植物总数呈极显著负相关,而与TIN/TSP的比值呈极显著正相关,这说明当藻类大量暴发而TIN/TSP下降时,浮游植物单个细胞内的平均Chl.a含量会有所下降,这种现象的原因有待进一步研究;绿藻、硅藻、裸藻和隐藻在时空分布上有一定相似性,而这四种藻与微囊藻则有较大差异.     

应用物种敏感性分布评估有机磷农药对淡水生物的急性生态风险

构建了4种常用有机磷农药(二嗪磷、对硫磷、杀螟硫磷和马拉硫磷)对淡水生物的物种敏感性分布(SSD)曲线,计算了4种有机磷农药对不同淡水生物的5%危害浓度(HC5)及其不同暴露浓度对淡水生物的潜在影响比例(PAF),分析了4种有机磷农药的急性生态风险,比较了脊椎动物和无脊椎动物(包括鱼类、甲壳类以及昆虫与蜘蛛类)对4种有机磷农药的敏感性,评估了3个典型水体中常用有机磷农药的联合生态风险.结果表明:1)通过HC5和PAF值的比较发现,4种有机磷农药对无脊椎动物的毒性与生态风险明显高于脊椎动物,对甲壳类的毒性与生态风险最大,对鱼类的毒性与生态风险最小.2)通过SSD曲线的对比发现,当对数暴露浓度小于3.5μg/L时,4种有机磷农药对无脊椎动物的生态风险明显高于脊椎动物;而当对数暴露浓度大于4.5μg/L时,其对脊椎动物的生态风险较大.3)在绝大多数暴露浓度下,无脊椎动物比脊椎动物对4种有机磷农药更敏感;在较低暴露浓度下,甲壳类对4种有机磷农药的敏感性较高;而在较高暴露浓度下,昆虫和蜘蛛类对其敏感性较高.4)长江、九龙江和五小川流域水体中对硫磷与马拉硫磷对淡水生物的PAF以及它们的复合潜在影响比例(msPAF)均小于0.5%,生态风险很低.     

济阳坳陷泥质岩油气藏类型及分布特征

 济阳坳陷目前已发现的泥质岩油气藏主要分布于东营凹陷和沾化凹陷的断裂、断鼻构造带附近,依据其储集空间可分为裂缝型、孔隙型及孔—缝复合型3种类型。其中,裂缝型油气藏占主要地位,主要发育于富钙质的脆性泥页岩中;孔隙型油气藏主要发育于含砂质条带的欠压实泥岩中;孔—缝复合型油气藏发育于钙质泥-页岩互层且夹薄层砂质条带的岩类中。泥质岩油气藏以自生自储为主,需要富钙质或欠压实等特定的岩性条件,一般发育在断裂活动带附近。横向上,裂缝型油气藏主要分布于厚层生油层中富钙质高阻层段,尤其是页岩发育的薄互层段,孔隙型油气藏只分布于具有断裂或隆起背景且富含砂质条带的欠压实区;纵向上,泥质岩油气藏主要分布于2200m以下的沙河街组四段上亚段、沙河街组三段下亚段及沙河街组一段下亚段等层位。     

A generalized layered radiative transfer model in the vegetation canopy

In this paper, a generalized layered model for radiation transfer in canopy with high vertical resolution is developed. Differing from the two-stream approximate radiation transfer model commonly used in the land surface models, the generalized model takes into account the effect of complicated canopy morphology and inhomogeneous optical properties of leaves on radiation transfer within the canopy. In the model, the total leaf area index （LAI） of the canopy is divided into many layers. At a given layer, the influences of diffuse radiation angle distributions and leaf angle distributions on radiation transfer within the canopy are considered. The derivation of equations serving the model are described in detail, and these can deal with various diffuse radiation transfers in quite broad categories of canopy with quite inhomogeneons vertical structures and uneven leaves with substantially different optical properties of adaxial and abaxial faces of the leaves. The model is used to simulate the radiation transfer for canopies with horizontal leaves to validate the generalized model. Results from the model are compared with those from the two-stream scheme, and differences between these two models are discussed.     

Programme of the Galactic meridian: Star counts and galactic models. 1. Distributions of stellar magnitudes and colours

A comparison of observed stellar distributions with a three-component model of the Galaxy is presented. The analysis is based on photometric and photoelectric data obtained along the main Galactic meridian and in two fields near the North Galactic pole (programme MEGA). The assumed model considers the Galaxy as composed of the disk (main sequence and disk red giants), the thick disk and spheroid populations. To model the observed colour distribution, we distinguish main sequence stars and disk red giants as the disk subsystem; white dwarfs, subdwarfs and intermediate giants as the thick disk subsystem; extreme subdwarfs, spheroid giants and horizontal branch stars as the spheroid subsystem. A statistical relation between the apparent and absolute magnitudes of stars which make the maximum contribution to the star counts for a given disk subsystem is derived. In order to achieve the best agreement between the model and observations, we fit the values of the ‘dip’ (aw) of the disk luminosity function, the correction to the absolute magnitude of disk red giants (ΔM_V^RG) and the expression for interstellar extinction. As the main result, we obtained aw = 0.6 (logarithmic scale) and ΔM_V^RG = 0.5 mag; the interstellar extinction has to be taken into account by the modified Sandage law.