Assessment of uncertainty in environmental contours due to parametric uncertainty in models of the dependence structure between metocean variables

A key factor for computing environmental contours is the appropriate modeling of the dependence structure among the environmental variables. It is known that all the information on the dependence structure of a set of random variables is contained in the copulas that define their multivariate probability distribution. Provided that copula parameters are estimated by means of statistical inference using observations, recordings, numerical or historical data, uncertainty is unavoidably introduced in their estimates. Parametric uncertainty in the copulas parameters then introduces uncertainty in the environmental contours. This study deals with the assessment of uncertainty in environmental contours due to parametric uncertainty in the copula models that define the dependence structure of the environmental variables. A point estimation approach is adopted to estimate the statistics of the uncertain coordinates of the environmental contours considering they are given in terms of inverse functions of conditional copulas. A case study is reported using copulas models estimated from storm hindcast data for the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty in environmental contours of significant wave height, peak period and wind speed is assessed. The accuracy of the point estimation of the mean and variance of the contour coordinates is validated based on Monte Carlo simulations. A parametric study shows the manner in which greater parametric uncertainty induces larger variability in the environmental contours. The influence of parametric uncertainty for different degrees of association is also analyzed. The results indicate that variability between contours considering parametric uncertainty can be meaningful.     

Phyllosoma larvae of Jasus edwardsii (Hutton) (Crustacea: Decapoda: Palinuridae) and their distribution off the east coast of the North Island,New Zealand

The complete series of phyllosoma larval stages of spiny lobster lasus edwardsii are described. Eleven stages are recognised from specimens captured in plankton samples collected along a transect extending 185 km east of Castlepoint, North Island, New Zealand between July 1969 and December 1971. A table of distinguishing characteristics and a key for identification of stages are presented. First stage larvae occur between August and October and last stage larvae about 15 months later. Mortality through the phyllosoma stages is estimated to be 98%. Early stage larvae occur mainly inshore in Southland Current water in the upper 5 m, and later stage larvae occur more frequently offshore in East Cape Current water at 40–60 m depth.     

Use of a single-bowl continuous-flow centrifuge for dewatering suspended sediments: Effect on sediment physical and chemical characteristics

The use of a single-bowl continuous-flow centrifuge (CFC, Sharples-Pennwalt Model AS-12) for dewatering suspended sediment from large volumes of river water is evaluated. Sediment-recovery efficiency of 86-91 per cent is comparable to that of other types of CFC units. The recovery efficiency is limited by the particle-size distribution of the feed water and by the limiting particle diameter that is retained in the centrifuge bowl. The limiting particle diameter, using the parameters for this study (bowl radius = 10.5cm; bowl length = 71.1 cm; rotational velocity = 16000 r min^?1; flow rate = 2 L min^?1, and an assumed hydrated particle density = 1.7 gm cm^?3), is 370 nm. There seems to be no particle-size fractionation within the centrifuge bowl—the median particle size was the same at the top as at the bottom. Particle electrophoretic mobility plays some role in fractionation of particles within the centrifuge. The mobility ranged from ?1.19 to ?2.01 × 10^?8 m² V^?1 s^?1, which is typical of clays coated with organic matter, the charge of which is partially neutralized by divalent cations and iron. Contamination by trace metals and organics is minimized by coating all surfaces that come in contact with the sample with either FEP or PFA Teflon and using a removable FEP Teflon liner in the centrifuge bowl. Because of the physical and chemical factors affecting particle fractionation within the centrifuge, care must be exercised in interpreting the environmental consequences of particles collected by continuous-flow centrifugation.     

地震作用下剪切型结构的可靠性分析

本文利用Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ数字模拟原理，以同一集系的多条地震加速度时程为输入，利用作者提出的考虑结构低周疲劳特性，首超破坏与累积损伤破坏合一的地震破坏准则，通过时程反应分析，直接统计反应量的随机特征来寻求结构的抗震可靠度，避免了建立地面运动简化模型和求解强非线性随机振动问题带来的近似与误差，在可靠度分析中采用了一次二阶矩的验算点法，将结构抗震可靠性统一到可靠指标β上来分析，便于在工程中实际运用     

Heuristic considerations pertaining to hailstone size distributions in the plain of Friuli-Venezia Giulia

In this work, the hailstone size distributions at the ground in the plain of Friuli-Venezia Giulia are presented, as revealed through a network of polystyrene pads (hailpads), managed by volunteers, which has been active since 1988. The aim of this work is to highlight possible differences in the diurnal and seasonal behavior of hail at the ground, both from Friuli-Venezia Giulia and other countries, in order to improve the knowledge of this meteorological phenomenon.In the comparison between different countries, differences are found between the yearly size distributions of Friuli-Venezia Giulia and those of North-East Colorado, measured during the National Hail Research Experiment (NHRE). The size distributions obtained in South West France and in Friuli-Venezia Giulia are quite similar and they are slightly different from those of the Grossversuch experiment.In the comparison between different periods of the year, relevant differences are found between April and May and the other months. In particular, thunderstorms are less efficient in producing big hailstones during the former months. The most prolific month in producing hailstones is June, followed by September. This feature is interpreted as due to a form of synergy between the frequency of the synoptic forcing of storms and the amount of available energy at the ground.Analyzing the size distributions at different times of the day, the greatest differences are found in the intervals [00–06] and [06–12] in local time (respectively, [22–04] and [04–10] in UTC). These differences cannot be ascribed to the melting of the hailstones during their fall.     

水灰岩地层中子随能量和时间分布的Monte Carlo模拟

作者在MCNP的基础上，开发了中子测井，中子通量随空间、能量、时间分布蒙特卡罗（Monte Carlo)模拟软件包。对裸眼井、井眼里无下井仪器、水饱和灰岩地层、井眼注水，用该软件计算了沿井轴和沿井壁中子能量随能量、时间分布，以及沿井轴和沿井壁热中子和超热中子时间谱。即源距离变化对中子能量随能量、时间分布和井轴与井壁热中子、超热中子时间谱的影响。     

一元p-范分布的参数估计

应用矩估计法，在观测为误差单峰、对称的情况下，得到了一元p-范分布在不同情况下参数的计算公式。详细推导了一元p-范分布极大似然方程的解算公式，将矩估计法应用到极大似然平差的参数估计理论中，得到了一个比较好的算法，最后用两个算例说明了此方法的优越性。     

河南省沙尘暴时空分布特征及影响因子分析

对河南省沙尘暴时空分布特征及影响因子分析发现：河南省沙尘暴在东部平原地区发生频率高于西部山区，在驻马店以北，年沙尘暴日数为1的等值线基本上与地势海拔100m地形等高线相吻合；沙尘暴的多发地区，沙尘暴日数年际变化在多数年份较为剧烈；河南省沙尘暴沙源并非全部来自省外，省内下垫面沙尘对沙尘暴的发生起了一定的促进作用；沙尘暴的发生与降水量关系极不明确，但在部分年份与月最长无降水日数和日照时数之间存在着一定的对应关系。     

Size distribution analyses for estimating diamond grade and value

Analysing the size frequency distributions (SFDs) of both micro diamonds and macro diamonds from primary deposits shows that the distributions are continuous across all sizes and that there are two regions of different character with a transition about 1–2 mm. Using log axes, the frequency curve is linear for the smaller sizes allowing slope and intercept parameters to be determined which are less ambiguous than stone counts and ratios of macro to micro populations that are generally reported. Modelling a diamond population that has undergone removal of a uniform thickness of the outer layer transforms a linear frequency curve into a quadratic form, which is also the form of the frequency curve for macro diamonds. Diamonds grown synthetically also display a linear distribution across a smaller fraction of their size distribution curve.     

Simulation of astronomical solar radiation over Yellow River Basin based on DEM

Based on the developed distributed model for calculating astronomical solar radiation (ASR), monthly ASR with a resolution of 1 km×1 km for the rugged terrains of Yellow River Basin was calculated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors that influence the ASR. Results suggest that (1) Annual ASR has a progressive decrease trend from south to north; (2) the magnitude order of seasonal ASR is: summer>spring>autumn>winter; (3) topographical factors have robust effect on the spatial distribution of ASR, particularly in winter when a lower sun elevation angle exists; (4) the ASR of slopes with a sunny exposure is generally 2 or 3 times that of slopes with a shading exposure and the extreme difference of ASR for different terrains is over 10 times in January; (5) the spatial differences of ASR are relatively small in summer when a higher sun elevation angle exists and the extreme difference of ASR for different terrains is only 16% in July; and (6) the sequence of topographical influence strength is: winter>autumn>spring>summer.