Airline Network Carbon Emission Model and the Analysis of External Factors

In the face of the challenges posed by low-carbon aviation development to the aviation industry and the transformation of the emission reduction mechanism, based on the external perspective, firstly, the general expression of the environment damage model of aviation carbon emission and the element about the damage factors of carbon emission environment and the application of sensitivity analysis method were introduced and analyzed. Then, the external factors of carbon emissions in the airline network were analyzed systematically—The influence of the flight operation stage (LTO phase and cruise phase), the sector distance, the flight type and the terminal area airspace. The existing research showed that the two types of airline network model about the environment damage of aviation carbon emission were in different ways and sizes, and the city-pairs was lower than the hub-spoke; the environment damage of aviation carbon emission was the formation of the above four elements with the aircraft type and airline type. The hub airport’s carbon emissions triggered a challenge to the hub-spoke airline network model. In the low-carbon economy, corresponding suggestions on the airline network model were also faced with the hinterland market.     

Scenario Prediction of China’s Oil Resource Demand in 2020-2030

Oil plays an important role in ensuring national energy security. It is of great significance for China’s energy policy-making to predict the future oil demand scientifically. Combined with the grey correlation analysis and combination model of ARIMA-BP neural network, data on six driving variables of China’s GDP, international oil price, energy consumption per unit GDP, industrial structure, urbanization rate and oil production in 1999-2018 were selected to predict China’s oil demand under different scenarios in 2020-2030. The results show that the selected driving variables are highly correlated with China’s oil demand, and the combined model is more accurate than the single model. From 2020 to 2030, China’s oil demand and import will continue to increase, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Under the three scenarios, the predicted average oil demand in 2020, 2025 and 2030 will be 675.7703 million tons, 732.2725 million tons and 760.8155 million tons, respectively; the predicted average external dependence in 2020-2030 will be 76.19%, far exceeding the international warning line of 50%. The contradiction between China’s oil supply and demand will be more acute, and accordingly, some policy suggestions were put forward.     

The Study of Two Geomagnetic Jerks in China

This paper analyzes the first differences of the annual means (annual rate) for the Y and Z components of the geomagnetic field from nine magnetic observatories in China, measured from 1985 to 2003. The 1991 jerk was obvious in the Y component measured but not clear for the Z component. Rapid changes in the Z components were ubiquitous around 2000 -2001, but not seen for the Y component. External effects were removed from the monthly means by comparing the monthly mean of the geomagnetic field components at the observatories with the monthly time series of the Ap geomagnetic index. However, some examples were analyzed and showed whether external effects were removed or not, there was no marked distinction in determining the jerks in China for the Y component and the Z component of the geomagnetic field. Finally, the isolines of the first differences of the annual means were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of the jerks.     

外源S_q等效电流体系电流涡中心电流强度与太阳活动关系

本文选取了INTERMAGNET地磁台网2001年到2012年的地磁数据,对其进行世界时(UT)到地方时(LT)的转换后利用自然正交分量法(NOC)从所选资料中提取出太阳静日变化Sq成分,再通过球谐分析方法建立模型分离内、外源Sq成分,逐日反演出内、外源Sq等效电流体系,并得到外源Sq等效电流体系南北电流涡中心电流强度.本文将外源Sq等效电流体系南北电流涡中心电流强度与同一时期的Dst指数进行了对比分析,研究表明它们之间具有同步变化的规律,且北半球电流涡中心电流强度在磁暴发生时的异常现象远高于南半球.对F10.7cm太阳射电流量与外源Sq等效电流体系南、北半球电流涡中心电流强度的长短周期分析发现,Sq等效电流表现出明显的11年周期特点,与太阳活动周期一致.外源南、北半球电流涡中心电流强度和F10.7cm年均值的相关系数分别达到了0.93和0.90,说明太阳活动是导致外源Sq电流体系变化的最直接也最主要的因素,这可能与电离层电导率受控于太阳的电磁辐射相关.     

Theoretical analysis of type II dent pipe under external force

In-service pipelines are often subject to external disturbances that produce dent defects, and the presence of dent defects often affects the pipeline's ultimate bearing capacity. This paper analyzes the equilibrium state of dent pipelines under external force for in-service pipelines with type II dent defects. A simplified calculation model for the shell is established through a series of assumptions and simplifications. Firstly, the pipe ring is crushed and analyzed to obtain the crushing power of the pipe ring, and then the pipe generator is subjected to deformation analysis to obtain the generator dissipating power. According to the principle of virtual work, the relationship between the external force power and the internal power dissipation power in equilibrium state is obtained.Under the condition of internal pressure, the type II dent defect is analyzed, and the relationship between the external force and the depth of the dent defect and its corresponding analytical expression are obtained. Under the condition of no internal pressure, the dent defect under different constraints is analyzed, and the analytical expression of the applied load under different constraints is obtained.     

外强迫引起的夏季大气环流异常及其机制探讨

本文主要探讨了夏季模式大气对热带海温和高纬极冰异常的外强迫响应机制,结果表明,在大气环流模式长时间积分以后,不同的外强迫源均可在全球大气的一些关键性区域激发产生相同的环流异常型,即夏季大气主要异常型对外强迫源地理位置不敏感,很大程度上依赖于大气内部动力学过程.根据以上特点本文提出外强迫引起大气异常存在两类机制,其中外强迫和大气内部动力学过程相互作用机制是产生大气异常的重要动力学途径.     

Glaucophane-bearing assemblage overprinted by greenschist-facies metamorphism in the Variscan Kaczawa complex, Sudetes, Poland

An Early Palaeozoic (Ordovician ?) metamudstone sequence near Wojcieszow, Kaczawa Mts, Western Sudetes, Poland, contains numerous metabasite sills, up to 50 m thick. These subvolcanic rocks are of within-plate alkali basalt type. Primary igneous phases in the metabasites, clinopyroxene (salite) and kaersutite, are veined and partly replaced by complex metamorphic mineral assemblages. Particularly, the kaersutite is corroded and rimmed by zoned sodic, sodic–calcic and calcic amphiboles. The matrix is composed of actinolite, pycnochlorite, albite (An ≤ 0.5%), epidote (Ps 27–33), titanite, calcite, opaques and, occasionally, biotite, phengite and stilpnomelane. The sodic amphiboles are glaucophane to crossite in composition with Na^B from 1.9 to 1.6. They are rimmed successively by sodic–calcic and calcic amphiboles with compositions ranging from magnesioferri-winchite to actinolite. No compositions between Na^B= 0.92 and Na^B= 1.56 have been ascertained. The textures may be interpreted as representing a greenschist facies overprint on an earlier blueschist (or blueschist–greenschist transitional) assemblage. The presence of glaucophane and no traces of a jadeitic pyroxene + quartz association indicate pressures between 6 and 12 kbar during the high-pressure episode. Temperature is difficult to assess in this metamorphic event. The replacement of glaucophane by actinolite + chlorite + albite, with associated epidote, allows restriction of the upper pressure limit of the greenschist recrystallization to <8 kbar, between 350 and 450°C. The mineral assemblage representing the greenschist episode suggests the P–T conditions of the high-pressure part of the chlorite or lower biotite zone. The latest metamorphic recrystallization, under the greenschist facies, may have taken place in the Viséan.     

过去2000年东亚夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究

利用地球系统模式CESM过去2 000年气候模拟试验结果,探讨了在百年尺度上东亚夏季风降水的时空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、区分外强迫因子对东亚季风的影响有着重要的科学意义。研究表明:1东亚夏季风降水与温度基本同相变化,降水存在准100年、准150年和准200年周期。2降水标准化EOF第一模态为由北向南"负—正—负—正"的条带状空间分布,而EOF第二模态基本为全区一致的分布型态。3东亚夏季风降水准100年周期主要受太阳辐射、火山活动和气候系统内部变率的共同影响;准150年周期主要受太阳辐射的影响;准200年周期主要受太阳辐射和火山活动的影响。东亚夏季风降水在温带地区主要受温室气体和土地利用/覆盖的影响;在副热带地区主要受太阳辐射和火山活动的影响;在热带地区主要受太阳辐射、火山活动和气候系统内部变率的影响。     

220kV盐津变电所北部边坡变形机制分析

该填土边坡位于云南省盐津县,场地岩土层主要由人工填土、耕植土和粉质粘土等第四系松散堆积层,以及全-强风化泥岩和中-微风化细砂岩等下伏基岩组成。全-强风化泥岩呈紫红色,岩质软弱,具有遇水软化成泥且强度迅速降低的特点。经过2d的强降雨之后,该填土边坡开始蠕滑变形,从地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、水文地质条件等场地条件和人类活动等方面对边坡的变形机制进行了分析。结果表明:边坡变形特征是一种推移式蠕滑变形,场地平整填方加载是造成边坡变形的诱发因素,不良的地形地貌、地质结构和地下水条件是导致边坡蠕滑变形的内在因素。